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Pattern Magnificent March

1300m said:
I'm a lot like you in this regard. This is 100% the honest truth - the reason I am a meteorologist today is because of one event, but the reason behind it is because I became so fascinated with why the forecasts were so awful for that event that I started trying to dig into the data to see why broadcast meteorologists -- and if I'm being honest, it was Greg Fishel -- were so bad at predicting snow here. It was kind of the perfect storm, I had become somewhat interested in forecasting over the past several years and this was such an epic forecast bust it really ignited the fire. As much as I love the big events, sometimes I get almost equal jollies out of figuring out when something is going to be a non-event while most everyone else is expecting something huge.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20041226/
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True, true. But something huge makes it more exciting and worthwhile. Idk why, but the little stuff like flurries and a dusting and inch or so snows aren't as exciting as when I was younger. Most of us don't take the time to care about the dynamics. We just want a major storm like historic ones that happened when we weren't alive yet and we just get impatient tbh. If looking at the Dynamics is just as fun as a big storm I'm all for it. But it can be frustrating to watch these big dynamics and nothing big to show for it. And I'm all for benign weather but we get that warm , benign stuff all throughout spring and summer, so why not have a genuine natural winter for a change? I definitely gotta work on my appreciation tho. Thanks for the input. God, just imagine what the historic storms of the past must have been like here in Atlanta! 10 inches of snow in 1936 and 1940! I would kill for that! But alas, we are not as fortunate anymore haha.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I’ll never look at the -NAO in the same light again! We did fine this year without it! I’m ready for a wet summer and a cool , snowless winter next year, with a weak El Niño!
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Couple of quick and simple mathematical equations for us to remember for next winter:
-NAO n (January) = $$$
-NAO n (March) = NADA
 
mrdaddyman said:
Couple of quick and simple mathematical equations for us to remember for next winter:
-NAO n (January) = $$$
-NAO n (March) = NADA
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Assuming you're talking about a significant wintry precip event in the RDU area, I'd have to disagree because no one index, including -NAO, is ever close to $$$ at any time of year. A -NAO may, like is the case with certain other indices like +PNA, El Nino, -AO, and colder MJO phases, increase the chance. But it is very far from money in the bank.

Actually, the 3 major winter storms this winter were without a -NAO! I maintain that even up in the RDU area that -NAO's correlation to winter storms is not as high as some here think.
 
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Oh boy if only we could get this sucker to dig sooner and be juxtaposed a little bit further to our south & west. Regardless should see a period of relatively seasonable-cooler than normal weather dominate early-mid March and kill off some of these bugs at least I hope lol
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Sierra getting up to 75 inches in next 10 days per Euro
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Models have been consistent in showing frigid arctic air returning to GA the first two weeks of March. Some days around the 10th-11th we never get out of the 20s and 30s. Everything in bloom will be toast again, just like last year.
 
Tarheel1 said:
More neutral tilt, and a wing and a prayer! But not bad
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A long way out there, but this reminds me of the January event. Wishing for a more neutral tilt and a little luck. Oh, who am I kidding, it will be completely different on the next run.
 
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Cad Wedge NC said:
A long way out there, but this reminds me of the January event. Wishing for a more neutral tilt and a little luck. Oh, who am I kidding, it will be completely different on the next run.
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Before snowmageddon returns and it’s quiet, any carpfisherman out there? Check this out
 
00z gfs with a monster snowstorm from NC into the MA. Dc gets plastered. This is what Eric eluded to happening earlier when that wave digs south and west
 
Webberweather53 said:
OTD 55 years ago...

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That LP tracked right along the coastline. Maybe it's just me but it seems like every storm we've had take that track in the last several years has had a warm nose breathing down my neck. Not sure how the 850 line managed to be so far SE in this case. Maybe it tracked off the coast and not up the coast?

Edit: It was a 1027 mb HP feeding cold air into the storm so we don't have to have 1050+ mb HPs to get it done either.
 
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Enjoying there being no more long lasting torch for at least the next couple of weeks. We could easily not have the level and duration of warmth we just experienced the last couple of weeks until April or potentially even May! Some nice late winter/early spring wx to get out and enjoy. Thank you -NAO for your nice contribution.
 
GaWx said:
Enjoying there being no more long lasting torch for at least the next couple of weeks. We could easily not have the level and duration of warmth we just experienced the last couple of weeks until April or potentially even May! Some nice late winter/early spring wx to get out and enjoy. Thank you -NAO for your nice contribution.
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Ignoring the 80's on post-truncation of the past couple GFS runs and rather will be reveling in the next 10 days ... :p
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... and digging the heck out of seeing this again ...

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Larry (and anyone else) - The record warmth was OK, but given a choice ... We're in the same swampy camp! Keep the chill as long as possible; July will be here soon enough ...
Best!
Phil
 
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887F1C96-AC44-495A-A7C2-4EAA7EBAA755.png When will he stop!?? Jeebus, Joseph and Mary!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Stinks this pattern wasn't favorable for wintry weather at this point in February, there are a lot of very sizable events in east-central NC around this date. Our snowfall climo isn't as good as January but pound for pound we often see more big dogs when it does snow...
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A few days later around the 27th-28th and there's a butload of big dogs in the historical record w/ at least 6-8"+ of snow or 1/4"+ of ice in in the NWS RAH CWA including the aforementioned storm in late February 1963. I think you get the picture lol from mid February to early March when it actually manages to snow you're climatologically more likely to hit the jackpot in some part of east-central NC than at other times of the winter season.
February 27-28 1924 NC Snowmap.png
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Extremely warm followed by a cold 55 degree rain here in the upstate. This is how people get sick
 
Jon said:
Commence weenie excitement in 5...4...3....

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HP locked in but I'm not sure a 1025 would get the job done fore those outside of the mountains and maybe NNC WNC
 
Jon said:
Commence weenie excitement in 5...4...3....

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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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We got a nice trough right over and off the east coast that could lead to another big coastal for New England and the Mid-Atlantic a little over a week from now and it's looking more likely this E Canada block will stubbornly hang around a little longer than I thought. Our climatology is barely favorable enough and we have to somehow bank on a shortwave coming in right behind it and getting shunted by this vortex while it's still hanging around. That's a lot to ask for and we'll be splitting hairs at best but it's not too unreasonable to think you have a shot for at least token flakes if you're along and/north of I-40 or are in the Apps w/ a pattern like this if a few bounces also go our way. This is also about the only thing we have left to talk about so why not lol.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We got a nice trough right over and off the east coast that could lead to another big coastal for New England and the Mid-Atlantic a little over a week from now and it's looking more likely this E Canada block will stubbornly hang around a little longer than I thought. Our climatology is barely favorable enough and we have to somehow bank on a shortwave coming in right behind it and getting shunted by this vortex while it's still hanging around. That's a lot to ask for and we'll be splitting hairs at best but it's not too unreasonable to think you have a shot for at least token flakes if you're along and/north of I-40 or are in the Apps w/ a pattern like this if a few bounces also go our way. This is also about the only thing we have left to talk about so why not lol.
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I'd say the system on the 9th has more potential than that post-truncation one.
 
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