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Pattern Magnificent March

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Jon said:
I hear yeah. The problem with trusting literal 2mT’s that far out is that it’s highly unreliable. That’s as good as trusting a winter storm verbatim in the late 300hr+ outputs. The deeper the anomalies this far out the stronger the signal, technically, because there’s so much spread in ensemble members. The anomalies will only get deeper and more extreme as we get closer, so seeing near freezing now is actually a good thing. Ensembles aren’t meant to be taken verbatim either, especially at mesoscale levels. I don’t even look at mesoscale data this far out. If you trend the 2mT’s on the same time frame in the GEFS for the next few runs I guarantee it will get colder. Pattern recognition first, then worry about the small stuff.
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Great post and info as always Jon. Most snows we get in March aren’t from long lasting cold shots anyways so temps not being below freezing in the long range aren’t to concerning as you pointed out. Most of the snows I can remember in March came after a few days in the 60s or 70s. That’s usually followed by a cold front that brings us just below or near freezing temps with moisture that dumps heavy wet snow on us. After that it’s cold for a day or two at most and then it’s back to warmer March weather.
 
SnowNiner said:
With these late season cold snaps that we get each year, I-40 north usually makes out just fine. I think it was 2014 that the triad got about 2-3 light winter events IIRC in March. Clt of course got zippo but cold annoying rain. If I was in winston salem and/or the mountains of the Carolinas, I'd think it's still game on. Late, late in the 4th quarter but still a chance.
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I agree. Just last March Nashville got 1.5 inches of snow while the temp was 3.5 degrees above normal for the month. Where I live 35-40 minuets north of Nashville I rarely go more then 3 years without seeing an accumulating snow in March. Last one I got was in 2015 and it was a little over 4 inches. Of course it was gone 2 days later but that’s how it usually goes in March.
 
image.png Man that block is looking healthy in the LR. This is how we score in March. These ingredients are necessary and it looks like they will be there. I would expect to see a marginal storm pop up here in the next couple days. Should be something to at least track. Or not. Who knows
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don't think you're all that crazy if you're along or north of I-40 and/or in the mountains that you could see a storm out of this pattern. The climo in areas like Raleigh, Greensboro/Winston-Salem, the VA border counties, western piedmont and foothills/mountains is good enough to legitimately support a storm through at least mid-March if the right pattern comes along. Elsewhere especially closer to the I-20 corridor (Birmingham, Atlanta, Columbia, etc) I wouldn't hold my breath.
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We never hold our breathe for Winter weather in Columbia. Don't worry.
 
Rain Cold said:
It'll be February 30th before it snows big in March in Raleigh again!
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RC/CR,
Your sense of humor is precious!
Thanks for keeping a stiff upper lip; you always provide resolve when it's not deserved.
Best!
Phil

PS ... We'll all get our day, just not on February 30th ... unless the atomic clock is off ... :confused:
 
BPATL said:
I'm sorry, long day, was not trying to throw attitude. I think we all feel this way about Fraud Failuary...
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Only naming it a cold and good name made it disappointing. Should've listened to Webber and the others beforehand. March is doomed in these terms to fail having a positive name. Abomination April FTW.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Only naming it a cold and good name made it disappointing. Should've listened to Webber and the others beforehand. March is doomed in these terms to fail having a positive name. Abomination April FTW.
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Here's some other apropos choices ... :oops:

Apocalyptic April

Awful April

April Arson

Atrophic April

Apoplectic April

Appalling April

April Apprehension
 
BPATL said:
I'm sorry, long day, was not trying to throw attitude. I think we all feel this way about Fraud Failuary...
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Ha it’s all good man. I’m just playing around not adding any value whatsoever. :)
 
ForsythSnow said:
Only naming it a cold and good name made it disappointing. Should've listened to Webber and the others beforehand. March is doomed in these terms to fail having a positive name. Abomination April FTW.
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In July, might as well call it "JuLightning 2018"
 
FF56EBD8-447B-4DB1-B1D1-9393F5CFFCA5.png Time to shut this thread down! It’s over now!:(
 
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