• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Magnificent March

I'm ready for ANY kind of a pattern change right now... even if it means 90s and dry. I'm sick of this damn boundary sitting on top of us. I hope this is not locking in long term, like several months.
 
a6aeea0a46b1fbe552e4bde2b60e9bf3.jpg


1962 in the Top Analogs list for Day 8-14 centered 3/2...

I’m interested in the analogs when it’s centered around 3/5 or later.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
if the nao going crash like some think... there is going to be a big storm system right before or duriing this process... plain n simple... watch models next week or so see if this develops
 
tennessee storm said:
if the nao going crash like some think... there is going to be a big storm system right before or duriing this process... plain n simple... watch models next week or so see if this develops
Click to expand...
The North Atlantic is going to see a heck of a storm, it looks like.
 
Rain Cold said:
GFS has that. Congrats to the upper Midwest and NE again.
Click to expand...
I thought a strong -NAO would push the storm track way South. If so, the GFS doesn't even agree with it's own -NAO teleconnection in the LR.
 
Starting to approach end of climo for snow for a lot of us by end of these ensemble runs. Both GEFS/EPS are active day 12 and on. We have a strong -NAO/-EPO. Just need some luck.

14-km EPS Global United States 24-h Precipitation 336.png 14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 360 (3).png
 
mrdaddyman said:
I thought a strong -NAO would push the storm track way South. If so, the GFS doesn't even agree with it's own -NAO teleconnection in the LR.
Click to expand...
Not necessarily. You have to look at the whole picture. The NAO is going to be really strong. But the Pacific sucks. And you have this weird ridge in the middle of the country. It doesn't really look like it's going to get very cold in the SE. Maybe it'll be cooler than normal, but sustained cold? Doesn't look like it. Take a look:

240 (Heck of a -NAO, along with a nice ridge in the center of the country):

240.png

288 (Storm rolling through the Midwest):

288.png

And at 360 in La La land (Another nice ridge in the center of the country):
360.png
And here is the coldest frame of the GFS (2m Temp anoms at 360):
360T.png
Wow. The Pacific is in terrible shape. We can have all of the blocking or fantastic index readings possible, but this is not a cold or snow SE pattern whatsoever...at least according to the GFS. I honestly am not seeing any reason to be excited about anything other than a cool spell. Plus, the really cold stuff is way on the other side of the planet. We need a better Pacific if we want a shot at a ULL snow. Otherwise, congrats Midwest and NE/upper Mid-Atlantic.
 
Rain Cold said:
The Pacific is in terrible shape. We can have all of the blocking or fantastic index readings possible, but this is not a cold or snow SE pattern whatsoever...at least according to the GFS. I honestly am not seeing any reason to be excited about anything other than a cool spell. Plus, the really cold stuff is way on the other side of the planet. We need a better Pacific if we want a shot at a ULL snow. Otherwise, congrats Midwest and NE/upper Mid-Atlantic.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I've been trying to keep members' expectations in check. Nobody is forecasting a sig wintry precip event in the SE in March right now. There will probably be some somewhere at some point in March just because the odds would favor it at least in the mountains. I'm trying to keep members' hopes from being expectations. What we do already have to look forward to is a period of much cooler wx than we've had in Feb at the very least in early March. That I'm so looking forward to!
 
GaWx said:
Agreed. I've been trying to keep members' expectations in check. Nobody is forecasting a sig wintry precip event in the SE in March right now. There will probably be some somewhere at some point in March just because the odds would favor it at least in the mountains. I'm trying to keep members' hopes from being expectations. What we do already have to look forward to is a period of much cooler wx than we've had in Feb at the very least in early March. That I'm so looking forward to!
Click to expand...
You just can't have a ridge in the center of the country and get really cold in the SE. Maybe the models will change or they're overdoing it, but it is and has been persistent. It would be nice, one of these days, to get a legit -NAO in the middle of winter with a favorable Pacific.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top