I’m just not ready for 80’s yet. Lol
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Pattern Magnificent March
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
After 2.5 weeks of the MJO sitting in phase 7 w/ large amplitude, RMM finally shows the MJO in phase 8.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Lol where's it going on that graph? Looks like it's headed for the dead center and swirling down the drain.
Kylo
Member
March 2013 was never able to couple a favorable pac with a west based NAO. The EPO was negative when the NAO was more east based but then flipped positive when the west based NAO established. Hopefully we can get a favorable -EPO/-NAO combo during the first half of March.
March 2006 was similar, predominantly +EPO during first half.
March 2006 was similar, predominantly +EPO during first half.
BPATL
Member
pcbjr
Member
Well, at least CPC is hinting at the AN subsiding some ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
2 record breaking blocking highs in the next 5-6 days in the northern hemisphere. A 595dm ridge off the SE US is very impressive for the middle of summer much less February. The potentially record-breaking Scandinavian block will retrograde towards Greenland and will remain very formidable and may remain awfully close to record territory on its own. Like I said yesterday, this is not going to be your run of the mill 1 ish sigma blocking high, the CPC's GEFS NAO forecast doesn't do this upcoming event justice.
whatalife
Moderator
Don’t worry. I’m not holding my breath for anyone to score in the SE the rest of winter. Just because you get a -NAO doesn’t mean it will produce ANY winter precipitation for ANYONE in the SE.
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Jon
Member
If this was a plain old -NAO I wouldn’t be remotely excited about March. The fact that it’s west based changes everything for me. But - I wouldn’t be too thrilled if I was anywhere outside the upper SE or of course, Raleigh...need a lot for people outside of normal climo areas to cash in at March but if a pattern produces it would need a block, which we are certainly getting.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
+1000 likes. With the way our pattern is right now, I can't see any deep cold doing anything. If anything, I think we'll also dry out a bit at the pattern change. All this rain can't lead to weeks more of excessive precip. I'll welcome the drier and cooler air bringing us back to seasonal. As for the -NAO, is that all we have going for us? How many times have we gone all in on one feature and busted...
SnowNiner
Member
With these late season cold snaps that we get each year, I-40 north usually makes out just fine. I think it was 2014 that the triad got about 2-3 light winter events IIRC in March. Clt of course got zippo but cold annoying rain. If I was in winston salem and/or the mountains of the Carolinas, I'd think it's still game on. Late, late in the 4th quarter but still a chance.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Agreed, it's definitely a big reach and quite frankly very inaccurate to say that nobody in the southeast can score out of this pattern, the climatology of the I-40 corridor from RDU to GSO and Nashville is comprable or better than those in Atlanta, Birmingham, & Columbia along the I-20 in the dead of winter. It's not great yes but we're still very much in the mix til at least mid March.
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I don't at all disagree with this. I just hope nobody "expects" any wintry precip. of significance. Nobody is forecasting significant wintry precip. A strong -NAO is being forecasted and is generating excitement along with the near certainty of much cooler wx than we've had in Feb. That's the extent of what can be forecasted/promised.
Edit: That being said, that doesn't at all mean sig wintry precip cant happen, especially in NC/TN. Even BHM-ATL-CUB getting measurable wintry in March is not all that rare even though the odds are pretty low for any one March.
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We have had legitimate winter weather in March 2 out of last 4 years up this way. It does happen but of course the more north you go the better the odds.
whatalife
Moderator
I am not saying that it can’t happen or that it won’t happen. I had 4.5” of snow in my backyard on November 1st 2014. I think March overall is a better month to score winter weather then in November so there’s that.
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If you expect wintry weather in the south at any point of the winter you are wishing.
Kylo
Member
Last 3” or greater March snow for Raleigh was in 2009. Prior to that I guess it might have been 1983. It will be a challenge for Raleigh. But, still nice to see a potential -NAO develop.
Euro still doesn't show anything too exciting before February 30th.