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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

superjames1992 said:
Yeah nothing here in NE CH. I am afraid I’m going to be too far south for this and too far north for the best stuff tomorrow!
Click to expand...
Yet again, a potential for shared CH/Durham misfortunes together. Let’s hope for a solid performance tomorrow though!!

It’s just crazy making to see mpings less than 15 miles north and west of me the past couple hours. Oof.
 
If the coastal low bombs before the ULL passes our latitude, it usually means the surface low is tapping maximum upper-level support early. Right?
 
For my folks along I-95 from Florence to Rocky Mount and points east, hang this on the wall:


After 00Z Sunday is when the heaviest snow and most notable impacts
are expected as the low offshore deepens rapidly. This will pivot
winds to more N/NE across the region, and as a deformation axis
pivots west of the surface low and the cold conveyor sets up across
the Atlantic and into the eastern Carolinas, more intense ascent
and greater moisture should result in extreme (for this region)
snow rates. Cross-sections indicate a broad region of favorable
conditions for CSI, or even CI (thundersnow), and the HREF snow-
rate probabilities peak above 50% for 1"/hr suggesting at least a
potential for 2"/hr within a pivoting band somewhere in eastern NC
or SC, and this is additionally supported by the WPC prototype
snowband tool. These heavy snow rates will be accompanied by
strong winds that may gust 35-50 mph, higher at the coast and in
the mountains, suggesting near blizzard conditions in many areas.
While uncertainty remains into how dry air in the mid- level may
impact snow amounts on the broad scale, locally very significant
snowfall accumulations are likely, especially within these bands,
during D2. By Sunday afternoon the low will pull away bringing an
end to the snowfall and leaving just cold windy conditions in its
wake.
 
Coming down pretty hard in Gatlinburg

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ChrisAMB said:
For my folks along I-95 from Florence to Rocky Mount and points east, hang this on the wall:


After 00Z Sunday is when the heaviest snow and most notable impacts
are expected as the low offshore deepens rapidly. This will pivot
winds to more N/NE across the region, and as a deformation axis
pivots west of the surface low and the cold conveyor sets up across
the Atlantic and into the eastern Carolinas, more intense ascent
and greater moisture should result in extreme (for this region)
snow rates. Cross-sections indicate a broad region of favorable
conditions for CSI, or even CI (thundersnow), and the HREF snow-
rate probabilities peak above 50% for 1"/hr suggesting at least a
potential for 2"/hr within a pivoting band somewhere in eastern NC
or SC, and this is additionally supported by the WPC prototype
snowband tool. These heavy snow rates will be accompanied by
strong winds that may gust 35-50 mph, higher at the coast and in
the mountains, suggesting near blizzard conditions in many areas.
While uncertainty remains into how dry air in the mid- level may
impact snow amounts on the broad scale, locally very significant
snowfall accumulations are likely, especially within these bands,
during D2. By Sunday afternoon the low will pull away bringing an
end to the snowfall and leaving just cold windy conditions in its
wake.
Click to expand...
Where was this from
 
At
jjwxman said:
This is what ChatGPT rendered. We hug.


Bottom line for NC/SC​

An earlier-than-modeled 500-mb cutoff over southern IL favors:

  • Earlier coastal development
  • Colder inland solution
  • Higher chance of front-end snow or sleet in NC
  • Sharper gradients and localized surprises
Click to expand...
dont use chat gpt it only tells you what you want to hear not the truth. heres what it gave me.

Why an earlier 500-mb cutoff over southern IL can hurt Carolinas snow

1. It often steals your downstream lift
2. Tends to slow or deform the system
3. Warm nose risk increases
4. You lose the “clean Miller A transfer” look


For NC/SC:

  • Earlier-than-modeled 500-mb cutoff over southern IL = more risk
  • Biggest threats: weaker lift, warmer profiles, mixed precip
  • Best snow setups usually want the cutoff later, farther east, or closer to the coast
 
mcv1998 said:
At

dont use chat gpt it only tells you what you want to hear not the truth. heres what it gave me.

Why an earlier 500-mb cutoff over southern IL can hurt Carolinas snow

1. It often steals your downstream lift
2. Tends to slow or deform the system
3. Warm nose risk increases
4. You lose the “clean Miller A transfer” look


For NC/SC:

  • Earlier-than-modeled 500-mb cutoff over southern IL = more risk
  • Biggest threats: weaker lift, warmer profiles, mixed precip
  • Best snow setups usually want the cutoff later, farther east, or closer to the coast
Click to expand...

I agree with you but this is the Machine Learning Mauler thread, so please be careful not to piss off our AI overlords
 
Last one I'll post then gotta crash for the night. It just doesn't even sound real. Hurricane force wind warnings and snow out to 100NM offshore. At 34°N off the coast of NC/SC.

ANZ833-311445
Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 NM Offshore.
945 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

TONIGHT
NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 8 to 12 ft. Chance of rain.

SAT
E to NE winds 30 to 40 kt, becoming N. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Chance of rain with vsby 1 nm or less.

SAT NIGHT
N winds 45 to 55 kt, increasing to 55 to 65 kt. Seas 14 to 23 ft, building to 16 to 31 ft. Numerous showers with vsby 1 nm or less.

SUN
NW winds 50 to 65 kt, diminishing to 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Scattered showers and snow showers with vsby 1 nm or less.
 
The band moving over Lumberton and Elizabethtown is definitely hitting the ground. Visible in the air on NCDOT cams on 95 in Robeson County and light accumulation beginning on the E-Town WECT cam and White Lake Marina cam.

It’s strengthened and expanded quickly on its northern half in the last hour. Hopefully I can see it in Dunn soon when it grows downstream of Bragg. It’s less impressive on KRAX but we’re getting there
37ea872ba38cc4d62eb489ad23133142.jpg



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jjwxman said:
This is what ChatGPT rendered. We hug.


Bottom line for NC/SC​

An earlier-than-modeled 500-mb cutoff over southern IL favors:

  • Earlier coastal development
  • Colder inland solution
  • Higher chance of front-end snow or sleet in NC
  • Sharper gradients and localized surprises
Click to expand...
I'm certain that ChatGPT is stealing our collective intellectual property.

I've hit 32 now under partly cloudy skies after a high of 52. It seems strange to be unconcerned with temperatures while tracking a winter event.
 
21z SREF plumes mean snowfall for RDU: 10.5", GSO: 9.5", CLT: 8.2", GSP: 5.2", CAE: 3.2", ILM: 9.8".

Not much reason to care at this point, but I am surprised to see them continuing to be so bullish for RDU right up to the end here.
 
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