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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

The band moving over Lumberton and Elizabethtown is definitely hitting the ground. Visible in the air on NCDOT cams on 95 in Robeson County and light accumulation beginning on the E-Town WECT cam and White Lake Marina cam.

It’s strengthened and expanded quickly on its northern half in the last hour. Hopefully I can see it in Dunn soon when it grows downstream of Bragg. It’s less impressive on KRAX but we’re getting there
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This is what ChatGPT rendered. We hug.


Bottom line for NC/SC​

An earlier-than-modeled 500-mb cutoff over southern IL favors:

  • Earlier coastal development
  • Colder inland solution
  • Higher chance of front-end snow or sleet in NC
  • Sharper gradients and localized surprises
I'm certain that ChatGPT is stealing our collective intellectual property.

I've hit 32 now under partly cloudy skies after a high of 52. It seems strange to be unconcerned with temperatures while tracking a winter event.
 
21z SREF plumes mean snowfall for RDU: 10.5", GSO: 9.5", CLT: 8.2", GSP: 5.2", CAE: 3.2", ILM: 9.8".

Not much reason to care at this point, but I am surprised to see them continuing to be so bullish for RDU right up to the end here.
...how may models have RDU dry slotted right now? I wouldn't say they are "bullish".
 
...how may models have RDU dry slotted right now? I wouldn't say they are "bullish".
I never said "models" were bullish for RDU, I said the SREF in particular is bullish, with 10.5". It's not alone, there are other models that show 5-10" for RDU, but yes you are right that there are also models that put Raleigh in the dry slot or really close to it. I don't feel confident.
 
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