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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

You can't put much stock into anything right now. No OP or Ensemble. They're all completely flipping around either for the better or worse. The best bet at this juncture is a blend of all of them. The TPV would be weaker but not completely destroyed which is absurd honestly. GFS/CMC are more believable in the evolution of the TPV. Either way you get ICE east of the mountains and a lot of it falling in mid to upper 20's. If you blend all the data together you get temps in the 24-28 range in NC and the upstate and all freezing rain likely.
 
SnowNiner said:
There's your trend. EPS has been ticking the PV weaker for several runs now. Its going to be non-existent in the models by tomorrow. Meaning the cold gets weaker, the SE ridge gets stronger, we get a cutter and we rain.
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Until we get back within about 84-96 hours and it trends back the other way. 3 days ago, the Euro/EPS had CLT getting well into the 60s this Friday... that was two days after having 30s for the same day... now we’re looking at low to mid 40s.
 
Chazwin said:
Until we get back within about 84-96 hours and it trends back the other way. 3 days ago, the Euro/EPS had CLT getting well into the 60s this Friday... that was two days after having 30s for the same day... now we’re looking at low to mid 40s.
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Yeah we'll see. I serious doubt we trend back to serious cold. We're trending to less PV, more SE ridge. That's just going to get warmer IMO. Not hot, but not wintry probably in any way.
 
Chazwin said:
Until we get back within about 84-96 hours and it trends back the other way. 3 days ago, the Euro/EPS had CLT getting well into the 60s this Friday... that was two days after having 30s for the same day... now we’re looking at low to mid 40s.
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Exactly. I am seeing a whole lot of "trends are away from wintery weather" and that just isn't true. Models are completely split on the evolution of the TPV and still give ice to the CAD areas. The Euro and the GFS have been AWFUL this year. they flip every run and I mean completely spit out a new H5 look. The EURO used to be king especially in this range and it hasn't been all season. Right now I see a middle ground look. Which means ICE in the CAD areas. Still don't see much of a shot for snow but ICE? yeah, that's a very strong possibility.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol I just find it crazy how we get that crappy look at H5 and still crank this out View attachment 73182View attachment 73183View attachment 73184
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I know you are just a young buck, but we have had some devastating ice storms in the CAD regions, with the low going West of the apps through TN, and TN having temps in the 50s. $ to donuts, this storm happens, split the temps between the Euro and GFS and add a dash of icon, you’ve got a recipe for a damaging ice storm in the CAD region!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I know you are just a young buck, but we have had some devastating ice storms in the CAD regions, with the low going West of the apps through TN, and TN having temps in the 50s. $ to donuts, this storm happens, split the temps between the Euro and GFS and add a dash of icon, you’ve got a recipe for a damaging ice storm in the CAD region!
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and in all honesty when it’s time for the models to verify, it will probably be a blend of all of them. One thing to note is that the models are all moving that TPV lobe now. Also as I’ve said before, while I don’t think extreme cold in the SE that had been shown at time will happen, you don’t need extreme cold to get winter weather
 
Stormsfury said:
Lots of issues to deal with on this EURO...

1) deepening BC low (British Columbia)... lower heights.

2) Bogged down SW low deepening - longwave neg tilt trough

3) weakening TPV over the Lakes...instead of the SW energy riding underneath a stronger TPV... the SW s/w has the opportunity to flourish with some infusement from the lower heights in British Columbia...

So basically another different solution in the vast pain of trying to find consistency...
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I agree! Talk about an almost 35-40 degree swing in temps for parts of the SE this run. Moral of the story is, as you know, this is going to change for the better or the worse...lol
 
I think the moral of the story is, lets not all panic over this run. Trends have been better than this, but it could easily go south (bad for us) quickly. Maybe it will look like this, maybe worse, maybe better? I don't think we will have anything ironed out until Sat or Sun (maybe) Hell, I went from 28 degrees and ZR to 50 degrees and rain in 1 run. Let that sink in.......
 
deltadog03 said:
I think the moral of the story is, lets not all panic over this run. Trends have been better than this, but it could easily go south (bad for us) quickly. Maybe it will look like this, maybe worse, maybe better? I don't think we will have anything ironed out until Sat or Sun (maybe) Hell, I went from 28 degrees and ZR to 50 degrees and rain in 1 run. Let that sink in.......
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Very well said. I stand by statement earlier that we’ve seen the Euro do this trend for warmer during the 5-7 day out timeframe, only to reverse and trend colder during and inside the 3-4 day. Now that we have Arctic air in the lower 48 and snowpack to the north, I think those trends back cold could bring a winter storm as opposed to cold rain. Heck CAD regions of NC/SC are not to far from an ice storm in the Friday/Saturday timeframe now.
 
I'm not very worried about the Euro as it's been all over the place for the past several days.
 
This storm is getting a little to close to home for my liking.


Winter Storm Watch in effect from 9 PM Wednesday through 6 PM on Thursday. Freezing rain with ice accumulations of one tenth to greater than one quarter of an inch possible in the Watch. Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Tavel could be very dangeergous. Thehazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute.
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There have been definite trends backing off on the PV and strengthening the ridge. There have been definite trends at delaying the cold. We are still close enough to the cold that it will influence our p-type from run to run, changes in low position, etc. But there is a them. That’s just a fact. I don’t like but that’s reality.


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ATLwxfan said:
There have been definite trends backing off on the PV and strengthening the ridge. There have been definite trends at delaying the cold. We are still close enough to the cold that it will influence our p-type from run to run, changes in low position, etc. But there is a them. That’s just a fact. I don’t like but that’s reality.


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but again we’ve seen the trends of strengthening the ridge all winter and it hasn’t happened yet...
 
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