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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

KyloG said:
I'm ready for big ole eastern ridge and western trough. Dry out and get the grass growing. No interest in freezing rain, I don't see a snowstorm pattern so let's hope it warms up.
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I have to disagree with this. We have summer from May until October. Please keep it as cool as possible for as long as possible.
 
Tarheelwx said:
I don't see the low going up that far inland before transferring to the coast. Really, the Euro doesn't even show a miller b. I think that will change and we'll see more cold air held in east of the mountains.
TW
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Nothing at the moment looks like we dodging a ice storm unfortunately

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Lots of issues to deal with on this EURO...

1) deepening BC low (British Columbia)... lower heights.

2) Bogged down SW low deepening - longwave neg tilt trough

3) weakening TPV over the Lakes...instead of the SW energy riding underneath a stronger TPV... the SW s/w has the opportunity to flourish with some infusement from the lower heights in British Columbia...

So basically another different solution in the vast pain of trying to find consistency...
 
Ollie Williams said:
I rarely pay attention to Ice events when temps are ~32. This storm may be much different. I'm not scared yet because always is a cutoff to the west that me eastward. Certainly not a good look for the GSP and mountain crew though.
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Lol I just find it crazy how we get that crappy look at H5 and still crank this out D5F7AD22-671E-4604-9327-8AC69FD55BC4.pngB86B1916-52CF-45A9-842B-68412CBD2093.pngD2C60234-89EA-49B9-A414-8DD82048279A.png
 
It’s really difficult to say that any of these models are showing a trend of anything. To me a trend is a model having a general idea and then moving in one direction for 3 or 4 runs. That Euro run brought a completely different idea with destroying that TPV. The two constants that we’re seeing right is far strong CAD and even in warmer looks the idea of a winter storm
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS really backed off the SE Canada vortex, a whole lot View attachment 73185
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There's your trend. EPS has been ticking the PV weaker for several runs now. Its going to be non-existent in the models by tomorrow. Meaning the cold gets weaker, the SE ridge gets stronger, we get a cutter and we rain.
 
The reason I said a trend towards rain. Is simply because of the pattern models. I mean if you’d had believed the models last week. We would have been looking at a board wide snow storm this weekend. But everything got pushed back or delayed. I’m in no way saying we won’t get a winter storm next week. But I am saying if the pattern among these models hold it will all shift to a cold rain soon.


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This event tbh has lots of wiggle room, if we go with a blend of all models it’s still a legitimate threat (for now), ukmet/euro/eps is hard to beat tho
 
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