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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

The thing that sucks, is with weaker confluence, a ice storm is on the table lol, we would have to build a whole SE ridge to escape ice in this setup F3D87320-F18D-42FB-9DD3-0C1100633FEE.png
 
This Euro run is probably the worse solution you’re going to get and even it still holds a strong Ice storm in the CAD areas. Even with a retreating HP, these things always hold on longer than any global is going to show. So at this point I would say even with this bad run that an Ice storm is a very very strong possibility for the 2/3 of NC, upstate SC, and NEGA.
 
iGRXY said:
This Euro run is probably the worse solution you’re going to get and even it still holds a strong Ice storm in the CAD areas. Even with a retreating HP, these things always hold on longer than any global is going to show. So at this point I would say even with this bad run that an Ice storm is a very very strong possibility for the 2/3 of NC, upstate SC, and NEGA.
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Solid point.
 
iGRXY said:
This Euro run is probably the worse solution you’re going to get and even it still holds a strong Ice storm in the CAD areas. Even with a retreating HP, these things always hold on longer than any global is going to show. So at this point I would say even with this bad run that an Ice storm is a very very strong possibility for the 2/3 of NC, upstate SC, and NEGA.
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Yeah... you’re probably correct on that. However I’m not sure I buy that TPV getting destroyed like that. That’s kind of a new thing that’s showing were as the bad runs before were just it hanging back to long
 
The TPV got destroyed with nothing really to anchor in any HP and we still had an ice storm. I don’t think the TPV would end up being ripped apart like that and even a weak version would be more than enough to get the job done east of the mountains. Most likely outcome is a blend of all the models which would still lock in HP and colder air, pivot our LP around the wedge instead of it running right through it like the Euro did, and temps being 2-4 degrees colder at go time. I really don’t see much hope for snow anymore. I think it’s ice at this point. Only saving grace is if it turns out to be sleet.
 
packfan98 said:
The Polar Vortex piece gets shredded like the UKMET was at the end of its run. Everything was further north - High pressure and the surface low. S/W went negative tilt too soon so you get an apps runner. No good trends overall on this run of the Euro. On to the EPS.
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Euro wasn’t great either. Should be expected

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Poimen said:
Just a friendly reminder: a few days ago these same models had significant problems solving the evolution of our TPV in the day 5-7 time frame.
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Normally this winter the in between sucks for us, if we was to go in between for all the models right now, yeah...
 
Models do tend to shear out upper lows in confluence a little too quickly. At least in the southern stream. Still the fact it shears out and many still get a significant winter storm speaks volumes about the air mass involved.
 
Man western regions got smoked
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I don't see the low going up that far inland before transferring to the coast. Really, the Euro doesn't even show a miller b. I think that will change and we'll see more cold air held in east of the mountains.
TW
 
As we have seen so far the models don't have a good fix on just how cold this air really is. We are sitting in the upper 20's still so I am willing to bet that the combination of underestimated CAD and overall cold air is likely to lead to a winter storm east of the mountains at a minimum. Problem is I really can't get behind a snow storm.
 
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