Jessy89
Member
To be fair the icon only went to 120hrs so who knows where it was headed.
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
There was an ice storm for CLT metro during January 1994, between the Arctic outbreaks that saw the low track up just west of the mountains and do a transfer to a coastal up off the Maryland coast. That one put significant icing throughout the Piedmont as the CAD locked in. The coastal sections warmed up to close to 70 with thunderstorms while CLT only topped out at 33 after latent heating
It’s was colder and had a stronger/more wound TPV then last run. That would result in a stronger SE Canada vortex = more CAA
iGRXY
Member
It was way colder and TPV was further southeast and way stronger. We know exactly where it was headed
packfan98
Moderator
The end of the RGEM was similar. Stronger and further south with the TPV.
Jessy89
Member
I’m mostly speaking of the track of the system. Late bloomer in Atlantic. Or blooms in the gulf. Does it go inland. Etc so many variables to iron out with this
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iGRXY
Member
Well I can tell you and inland track wouldn’t be possible with the look that the ICON had.
If this run kept going there would have been a much colder CAD once that vortex slid into SE Canada, damn 
We knew this was gonna happen, everything is gonna meet in the middle and give us lights out, a epic “victory” out of this awesome pattern, lol 
18z GFS/icon look more similar 
After looking over 12Z models, it seemed strange to me just how drastically Euro and UK weakened the hell out of the TPV. Here is Euro day 4:
Then here it is just 2 days later:
Seems crazy. I guess it can happen, just doesn’t look right.
Then here it is just 2 days later:
Seems crazy. I guess it can happen, just doesn’t look right.
Good trend out front with the low moving out. Should allow our high to slide in place 
From RAH:
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 457 PM Tuesday...
A very active pattern will continue for the rest of the forecast
period, with long range models suggesting multiple strong troughs
moving across the CONUS. Will be watching the first system move into
the area Friday night into Saturday as a low pressure system
develops along the NC coast and lifts NE Saturday night.
As a ridge builds into the Central Plains and wraps around the
mountains and into the Mid-Atlantic, it will allow for some near
freezing temperatures to move into the region Saturday morning. This
will bring a chance of freezing rain in the northern Piedmont during
the morning hours and later changing to all rain area wide. Saturday
evening there is expected to be a brief break in the precipitation
before picking up again Sunday morning. Yet again with temperatures
around freezing in the Northern Piedmont, expect freezing rain to
begin in the morning and change over to rain by late morning. As the
trough moves out of the area Sunday evening both the 12z GFS and
ECMWF show a brief break in the precipitation Sunday night before
the next wave of precipitation moves into the area Monday afternoon.
With cold air wedging in from the north, temperatures Monday morning
will be in the mid 20s to low 30s across the area. If these cooler
temps stick around for the next batch of precipitation there could
be a chance of wintry mix in the NE coastal plain Monday evening.
Forecast confidence for late Monday evening onward is low, as there
are many uncertainties with model agreement and whether or not
temperatures will remain sub freezing or just above freezing. Most
of these differences are brought about by the GFS keeping a surface
low off the coast and a typical CAD setup, while the ECMWF brings
the low directly over NC with much warmer temperatures. For the time
being, went with an ensemble consensus of rain or snow area wide for
Tuesday.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 457 PM Tuesday...
A very active pattern will continue for the rest of the forecast
period, with long range models suggesting multiple strong troughs
moving across the CONUS. Will be watching the first system move into
the area Friday night into Saturday as a low pressure system
develops along the NC coast and lifts NE Saturday night.
As a ridge builds into the Central Plains and wraps around the
mountains and into the Mid-Atlantic, it will allow for some near
freezing temperatures to move into the region Saturday morning. This
will bring a chance of freezing rain in the northern Piedmont during
the morning hours and later changing to all rain area wide. Saturday
evening there is expected to be a brief break in the precipitation
before picking up again Sunday morning. Yet again with temperatures
around freezing in the Northern Piedmont, expect freezing rain to
begin in the morning and change over to rain by late morning. As the
trough moves out of the area Sunday evening both the 12z GFS and
ECMWF show a brief break in the precipitation Sunday night before
the next wave of precipitation moves into the area Monday afternoon.
With cold air wedging in from the north, temperatures Monday morning
will be in the mid 20s to low 30s across the area. If these cooler
temps stick around for the next batch of precipitation there could
be a chance of wintry mix in the NE coastal plain Monday evening.
Forecast confidence for late Monday evening onward is low, as there
are many uncertainties with model agreement and whether or not
temperatures will remain sub freezing or just above freezing. Most
of these differences are brought about by the GFS keeping a surface
low off the coast and a typical CAD setup, while the ECMWF brings
the low directly over NC with much warmer temperatures. For the time
being, went with an ensemble consensus of rain or snow area wide for
Tuesday.
JLL1973
Member
Gfs much warmer for my area anyway
There’s the cave 
Storm5
Member
Brent will love the 18z
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packfan98
Moderator
Apps runner on the gfs this run.
Until 12z when it shows something else. I mean really, we ought to just stop looking out past 84-96 right now. Maybe check the ensembles for signals. The snow that part of NE GA, Upstate SC, and Western NC didn’t even start getting worked out until inside 72 hours