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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

If the 0z continues to send the LP further East before it cuts, I will bite. There definitely has been a trend today, although it’s only 30 mile swings each run, these at up over 6-8 runs before the event starts. Also, if it continues to trend throughout tomm. I would say that all bets are off. For now, I’m still not buying it.....for the sake of my sanity mostly.
 
00z na00z nam is a horrible track right through central bama . It’s an outlier track from the runs today . Let’s see who folds first


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Storm5 said:
00z na00z nam is a horrible track right through central bama . It’s an outlier track from the runs today . Let’s see who folds first


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0-1

Although this is usually the NAMs worst timeframe at losing its mind.
 
Is there any close analogs to this storm? Even back to the 1800's lol? My memory sucks, and I can't remember seeing so much winter precip so close that then hits a warm air brick wall as modeled and doesn't put down anything in my area or further East.
 
It's crazy all the variances of the snow amounts given by the models, I guess that what you get with the smallest shifts in temperature profiles.
18z GFS here in NW has 6-8" of snow using the cobb algorithm, ECMWF around 1-2", some models only give 1/10th of an inch of snow like the NAM, and then you have the WPC forecasting less than 1% chance of 1" or more of snow for most of North AL while the SREF is at 50% lol.

18z GFS cobb algorithm :
18zGFS 2-13-2021.jpg
 
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Dewpoint Dan said:
0z 3k nam. I would hate to be in Dallas if this map verifies. 2-4" would still be decent i suppose.View attachment 74700
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On the plus side, it seems to be an outlier relative to the other Hi-Res models.

In fact, 2 of the HRW models still show a solid 5-7", and 1 other HRW model shows 4-6". The 18z RGEM also showed 4-6".
 
SouthATLwx said:
On the plus side, it seems to be an outlier relative to the other Hi-Res models.

In fact, 2 of the HRW models still show a solid 5-7", and 1 other HRW model shows 4-6". The 18z RGEM also showed 4-6".
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I'm pretty confident DFW gets at least 4".
 
I know models shuffle around, but my Lord this is gonna be a hugh winter storm for the deep south. I'm calling for a little freezing rain at home but I'm literally 30 min from something major.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Still not 100% confident on that, because of the funky way the best forcing seems to evolve with this system. It even seems conceivable that DFW could be "screw holed" to the NW and SE with the heavier snow amounts.

That said, 3-4" seems like a safer bet.
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Yeah that dry slot has been bugging me all day but I still think our ratios and how cold it's been helps us

Also can we get morning accumulation that plays a huge role too if we do we could see the higher totals
 
Storm5 said:
12k and 3k nam suck for all of Alabama except the NW corner

1-3 so far at 00z


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I mean its at this moment the only model who hasn't made adjustments to a low cutting later and further south. We shall see how shakes out doesn't the NAM have a tendency to overamp this would perhaps explain the sharper low cutting?
 
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