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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Stormsfury said:
Cutter solution doesn't fly with me.
Let's just barrel thru a 1040ish high and totally break down a TPV in the process...
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Makes me think back to that @Webberweather53 post a couple days ago about the off hour runs not having Raob data and that's why we see the wilder swings?

The models are all over the place.
 
So, we’re canceling winter- AGAIN? This is pretty much the 3rd time in less than week where everyone is lining up to dive off that cliff. It’s Tuesday. We still have almost 7 days to go. Can we all just chill? Modeling has been godawful all damn winter. It completely missed GSP’s 4 inch snow last week. At the very last minute, mind you. I get we all want to see some form of winter Wx. But to completely just give up right now is borderline asinine. If on Friday or even Saturday models are still showing the SER and the TPV to our west- then yeah, we can probably stick a fork in this one. But with all that snow pack to our north right now, I just don’t buy this winter canceled scenario right now.


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ryan1234 said:
So, we’re canceling winter- AGAIN? This is pretty much the 3rd time in less than week where everyone is lining up to dive off that cliff. It’s Tuesday. We still have almost 7 days to go. Can we all just chill? Modeling has been godawful all damn winter. It completely missed GSP’s 4 inch snow last week. At the very last minute, mind you. I get we all want to see some form of winter Wx. But to completely just give up right now is borderline asinine. If on Friday or even Saturday models are still showing the SER and the TPV to our west- then yeah, we can probably stick a fork in this one. But with all that snow pack to our north right now, I just don’t buy this winter canceled scenario right now.


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Absolutely... it’s like no one is paying attention to what is starting to happen to the Friday/Saturday this week that had pretty much been written off... things are really not for off for that one to became a significant event for the CAD regions
 
ryan1234 said:
So, we’re canceling winter- AGAIN? This is pretty much the 3rd time in less than week where everyone is lining up to dive off that cliff. It’s Tuesday. We still have almost 7 days to go. Can we all just chill? Modeling has been godawful all damn winter. It completely missed GSP’s 4 inch snow last week. At the very last minute, mind you. I get we all want to see some form of winter Wx. But to completely just give up right now is borderline asinine. If on Friday or even Saturday models are still showing the SER and the TPV to our west- then yeah, we can probably stick a fork in this one. But with all that snow pack to our north right now, I just don’t buy this winter canceled scenario right now.


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We chilling, in 33 and rain #winning but yeah the run to run changes have been big, but today there’s been a trend to a weaker SE Canada vortex
 
The 18Z GFS is by a good margin the warmest of at least the last 4 runs. We toss since it is the 18Z and we get one freebie/day. Geez, I think there's even a world famous "We toss 18Z " Tshirt for goodness sakes! That's how tossable it is. It wants to be tossed. maybe it is a salad wannabe?
 
GaWx said:
The 18Z GFS is by a good margin the warmest of at least the last 4 runs. We toss since it is the 18Z and we get one freebie/day. Geex, I think there's even a world famous "We toss 18Z " Tshirt for goodness sakes!
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I bet it will change back next run.
 
I don’t post much. Usually just observations once an event is underway, however, with the models once again being all over the place, I think we need to wait and look at the general picture of what is going on first, and then within 48-72 hours, look at the details. I think we’ve all been looking more at the details and less at the general idea/pattern, that we freak out if it isn’t showing what we want 5 days out. I come here to learn, and since the TW days. I have been reading and generally listening to what the more experienced people are saying. Let’s calm down and see what the models say in about a day or two. I’m not reading much into anything until around then, anyway.
 
Nam0806 said:
I don’t post much. Usually just observations once an event is underway, however, with the models once again being all over the place, I think we need to wait and look at the general picture of what is going on first, and then within 48-72 hours, look at the details. I think we’ve all been looking more at the details and less at the general idea/pattern, that we freak out if it isn’t showing what we want 5 days out. I come here to learn, and since the TW days. I have been reading and generally listening to what the more experienced people are saying. Let’s calm down and see what the models say in about a day or two. I’m not reading much into anything until around then, anyway.
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Thanks for your post as it has good points. However, there's zero chance that the models won't be emphasized every single day on a wx bb. That hasn't changed in over 20 years of following many wx boards and it sure won't change now with more models and better access.
 
As for the GFS, I like to wait until the ensembles run. Right now at 138 on COD (College of DuPage).

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Myfrotho704_ said:
We chilling, in 33 and rain #winning but yeah the run to run changes have been big, but today there’s been a trend to a weaker SE Canada vortex
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Lol. Don't you go jinxing us now! But I agree, things do look bleak today- model wise. But I still think the CAD regions still have a chance. Hell, by tomorrow the TPV will probably be right on top of us. ?
 
Basically anything outside 3 days this year is a mirage. These models struggling badly if we have another winter weather event it will sneak up out of no where. Just like this past weekends snow did for GSP and surrounding areas. Is winter canceled no but it is getting deep into February and we don’t have that much winter left. Only 19% of snow comes in March and that’s scewed a bit by the blizzard of 93.


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Rain Cold said:
Well cats and kittens, it's time to look beyond mainstream model guidance and hit up some alt model sources. Who can whip out the JMA, the KMA, or the Beijing for us?
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Here’s the World War III model. I can’t read it but here it is 4031EC68-7686-465F-8018-EDDDC49059B1.png
 
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