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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Euro not doing well with the low level cold out west as well...this is the 12Z forecast of around now.....

euro surface mid.png

Reality is OKC is at 20, and all but the very SE corner of OK is well below freezing and places in north TX where this shows 41-45 are currently in the upper 20's, that's a pretty darn big error in this range.....this wont matter much for us here in NC though if the PV does not actually get in here lol.....but if it does then chances are the Euro wont be cold enough with the temps.
 
Everyone is saying calm down, I get that. But there's another dimension to this though. General public expects that a seven day forecast shown to them on news at night is generally correct or close to correct. Let's just assume the models are STILL wrong, and there won't be a SE ridge. Let's say the forecast is a high of 44 with rain on next Tuesday in Atlanta and this gets shown on Channel 2 news or something. The general public would believe it. But then let's say it changes and we end up with 30 as a high with significant ice storm Tuesday. People will be shocked at the sudden changes, perhaps outraged because they expect a 7 day forecast to have a CLUE of what's going to happen. The fact the we can't trust that a strong arctic front can pass in 7 days to properly plan for it is outrageous or at least can cause a measure of uncertainty in planning. As long as forecasting has been occuring you'd think you can have a general idea of what will happen in 7 days. But this flip-flopping is ridiculous and when models flip back to warm or near warm we believe them because models hardly ever seem to be wrong about SER, but never really get cold air right. That's legitimate cause for complain is all I'm saying.
 
Downeastnc said:
Euro not doing well with the low level cold out west as well...this is the 12Z forecast of around now.....

View attachment 73249

Reality is OKC is at 20, and all but the very SE corner of OK is well below freezing and places in north TX where this shows 41-45 are currently in the upper 20's, that's a pretty darn big error in this range.....this wont matter much for us here in NC though if the PV does not actually get in here lol.....but if it does then chances are the Euro wont be cold enough with the temps.
Click to expand...

You said it. I think the extent of the cold is underestimated where the PV had advanced but since it isn’t really forecasted to make it here...


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Clayton said:
Everyone is saying calm down, I get that. But there's another dimension to this though. General public expects that a seven day forecast shown to them on news at night is generally correct or close to correct. Let's just assume the models are STILL wrong, and there won't be a SE ridge. Let's say the forecast is a high of 44 with rain on next Tuesday in Atlanta and this gets shown on Channel 2 news or something. The general public would believe it. But then let's say it changes and we end up with 30 as a high with significant ice storm Tuesday. People will be shocked at the sudden changes, perhaps outraged because they expect a 7 day forecast to have a CLUE of what's going to happen. The fact the we can't trust that a strong arctic front can pass in 7 days to properly plan for it is outrageous or at least can cause a measure of uncertainty in planning. As long as forecasting has been occuring you'd think you can have a general idea of what will happen in 7 days. But this flip-flopping is ridiculous and when models flip back to warm or near warm we believe them because models hardly ever seem to be wrong about SER, but never really get cold air right. That's legitimate cause for complain is all I'm saying.
Click to expand...
A 5 day forecast is probably a better idea given how models are after 5 days.
 
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