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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Pup12 said:
Since Friday morning our hourly temperatures in Huntsville area have busted by 8-14 degrees. Is this why we’ve seen trends inch eastward, as in the cold is over performing? I’ve seen y’all write how models have a tough time with Arctic air
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It's not the reason why but it's an example of why. Models really struggle with the east/south extent of arctic air masses and they have a tendency to warm/moisten them too quickly
 
DadOfJax said:
Another thing that will minimize impact in AL is how heavy the precip will be. Going to be hard to get a lot of accretion in rain that heavy. Sleet will be the biggest player, and that’s in the far NW sections. I’m sticking to my guns....cold rain for 90% of us in AL. Hope I have to eat crow.
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Don’t need a lot . See the deaths in Dallas from the other day with less than .10


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SASQUATCH said:
Shiiiiiiid, @Brent might be drunk AF right now. I know I would be....wait....I might be :p

34F right now...High was 37F and was supposed to be 43F

Expert Big Wrong for 2 Day
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Haha I actually just got home from work I was noticing earlier the models and NWS had decreased totals a bit but I turned the TV on and they are still forecasting 6 inches in Dallas lol

Also on the radio they were talking about how two storms(the Wednesday storm) with brutal cold in between is unprecedented in the records here
 
Shifted east as well
GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_042.png
 
FDX diverting out of Memphis to Indy or another loc this week? I haven't seen a service alert email yet
 
DadOfJax said:
Another thing that will minimize impact in AL is how heavy the precip will be. Going to be hard to get a lot of accretion in rain that heavy. Sleet will be the biggest player, and that’s in the far NW sections. I’m sticking to my guns....cold rain for 90% of us in AL. Hope I have to eat crow.
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We get it!! All models are on board for a major winter storm for the deep south, that's enough proof for me.
 
Brent said:
Haha I actually just got home from work I was noticing earlier the models and NWS had decreased totals a bit but I turned the TV on and they are still forecasting 6 inches in Dallas lol

Also on the radio they were talking about how two storms(the Wednesday storm) with brutal cold in between is unprecedented in the records here
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rooting for you
 
Storm5 said:
CMC is still a hit outside of Jefferson . Stops on the line . Nam is still the clear outlier. Does not mean it won’t be right . But it’s alone at the moment


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There is always that one.... I like our chances for a little excitement.
 
special statement for freezing fog tonight
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
930 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

ALZ001>009-016-TNZ076-096-097-141500-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
930 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...Significant Weather Advisory for Patchy Freezing Fog across most
of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee...

Patchy freezing fog has formed across much of northern Alabama and
southern middle Tennessee this evening. Visibility reductions of two
to four miles were common across the area, with some locations
visibilities reduced to one mile.

As temperatures fall below freezing overnight, moisture within this
fog could produce a thin layer of ice on elevated and exposed
surfaces. This could result in a few slick spots on elevated roadways
such has bridges and overpasses. Locations in southern middle
Tennessee and much of northern Alabama, especially locations west of
Huntsville will be subject to freezing fog.

Motorists are urged to drive with extreme caution, especially across
elevated roadways, as patchy ice formation is possible. Reduce your
driving speed as needed, and allow for plenty of room between you
and other vehicles.

Conditions should slowly improve after daybreak Sunday morning.
Temperatures in some areas may not rise to or above freezing until
the late morning.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, or a favorite local media outlet,
for further statements or updates from the National Weather Service
in Huntsville.
 
TileDude said:
When Mobile NWS start issuing winter storm watches you know it’s a very unusual setup.
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Winter Weather Advisory is what they said may be issued. Still rare:
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
944 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

ALZ051>053-MSZ067-075-076-141200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wayne-Perry-Greene-
Including the cities of Butler, Lisman, Silas, Chatom, Millry,
Grove Hill, Jackson, Thomasville, Waynesboro, Beaumont,
New Augusta, Richton, Leakesville, and McLain
944 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Two periods of wintry weather are possible over portions of
interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama
from Sunday night through Monday evening. First, freezing rain or
freezing drizzle is possible over Choctaw and Wayne counties late
Sunday night into early Monday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory
may soon be required for Choctaw and Wayne counties during this
period. Secondly, freezing rain is looking increasingly likely to
develop Monday afternoon and persist into Monday evening before
the precipitation comes to an end. This second period of wintry
precipitation looks to affect portions of Wayne, Perry, Greene,
Choctaw, Washington and Clarke counties. A Winter Storm Watch will
likely soon be issued for this general portion of the area. Stay
tuned!

Wind chill values will drop to the single digits across portions
of interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A Wind Chill Advisory may
become necessary. Black Ice will also be possible Monday night
as lingering precipitation on roads flash-freeze as an arctic
airmass flows into the area.
 
Stormlover said:
Winter Weather Advisory is what they said may be issued. Still rare:
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
944 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

ALZ051>053-MSZ067-075-076-141200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wayne-Perry-Greene-
Including the cities of Butler, Lisman, Silas, Chatom, Millry,
Grove Hill, Jackson, Thomasville, Waynesboro, Beaumont,
New Augusta, Richton, Leakesville, and McLain
944 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Two periods of wintry weather are possible over portions of
interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama
from Sunday night through Monday evening. First, freezing rain or
freezing drizzle is possible over Choctaw and Wayne counties late
Sunday night into early Monday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory
may soon be required for Choctaw and Wayne counties during this
period. Secondly, freezing rain is looking increasingly likely to
develop Monday afternoon and persist into Monday evening before
the precipitation comes to an end. This second period of wintry
precipitation looks to affect portions of Wayne, Perry, Greene,
Choctaw, Washington and Clarke counties. A Winter Storm Watch will
likely soon be issued for this general portion of the area. Stay
tuned!

Wind chill values will drop to the single digits across portions
of interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A Wind Chill Advisory may
become necessary. Black Ice will also be possible Monday night
as lingering precipitation on roads flash-freeze as an arctic
airmass flows into the area.
Click to expand...
Read further down they say winter storm watch
 
Stormlover said:
Winter Weather Advisory is what they said may be issued. Still rare:
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
944 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

ALZ051>053-MSZ067-075-076-141200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wayne-Perry-Greene-
Including the cities of Butler, Lisman, Silas, Chatom, Millry,
Grove Hill, Jackson, Thomasville, Waynesboro, Beaumont,
New Augusta, Richton, Leakesville, and McLain
944 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Two periods of wintry weather are possible over portions of
interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama
from Sunday night through Monday evening. First, freezing rain or
freezing drizzle is possible over Choctaw and Wayne counties late
Sunday night into early Monday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory
may soon be required for Choctaw and Wayne counties during this
period. Secondly, freezing rain is looking increasingly likely to
develop Monday afternoon and persist into Monday evening before
the precipitation comes to an end. This second period of wintry
precipitation looks to affect portions of Wayne, Perry, Greene,
Choctaw, Washington and Clarke counties. A Winter Storm Watch will
likely soon be issued for this general portion of the area. Stay
tuned!

Wind chill values will drop to the single digits across portions
of interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A Wind Chill Advisory may
become necessary. Black Ice will also be possible Monday night
as lingering precipitation on roads flash-freeze as an arctic
airmass flows into the area.
Click to expand...
Read further down.. It does say winter storm watch will likely be issued. For a few counties.
 
Stormlover said:
Winter Weather Advisory is what they said may be issued. Still rare:
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
944 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

ALZ051>053-MSZ067-075-076-141200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wayne-Perry-Greene-
Including the cities of Butler, Lisman, Silas, Chatom, Millry,
Grove Hill, Jackson, Thomasville, Waynesboro, Beaumont,
New Augusta, Richton, Leakesville, and McLain
944 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Two periods of wintry weather are possible over portions of
interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama
from Sunday night through Monday evening. First, freezing rain or
freezing drizzle is possible over Choctaw and Wayne counties late
Sunday night into early Monday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory
may soon be required for Choctaw and Wayne counties during this
period. Secondly, freezing rain is looking increasingly likely to
develop Monday afternoon and persist into Monday evening before
the precipitation comes to an end. This second period of wintry
precipitation looks to affect portions of Wayne, Perry, Greene,
Choctaw, Washington and Clarke counties. A Winter Storm Watch will
likely soon be issued for this general portion of the area. Stay
tuned!

Wind chill values will drop to the single digits across portions
of interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A Wind Chill Advisory may
become necessary. Black Ice will also be possible Monday night
as lingering precipitation on roads flash-freeze as an arctic
airmass flows into the area.
Click to expand...
It also says a WSW watch will soon be issue
 
Evening update from nws in memphis

CAMs are still consistent with first wave of precipitation peaking late tomorrow night and tapering off after midnight. We are still seeing a brief lull in activity overnight into Monday, with the major brunt of the storm occurring Monday morning through late afternoon. Timing looks pretty decent across the model consensus, however, ptype and amounts are still a bit difficult to pin down. Our current forecast sits somewhere in the middle and captures the uncertainty pretty well with good ranges. The main uncertainty is not so much p-type as it is snow to liquid ratio at this time. A little QPF can go a long way in an arctic airmass and models may be underdoing snowfall totals. Hopefully this can be fine-tuned a bit with the 00Z model runs.
 
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