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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

I'm more interested in what the Short range models show instead of the Globals. The shorts range done goid with this last snow.

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Clayton said:
Everyone is saying calm down, I get that. But there's another dimension to this though. General public expects that a seven day forecast shown to them on news at night is generally correct or close to correct. Let's just assume the models are STILL wrong, and there won't be a SE ridge. Let's say the forecast is a high of 44 with rain on next Tuesday in Atlanta and this gets shown on Channel 2 news or something. The general public would believe it. But then let's say it changes and we end up with 30 as a high with significant ice storm Tuesday. People will be shocked at the sudden changes, perhaps outraged because they expect a 7 day forecast to have a CLUE of what's going to happen. The fact the we can't trust that a strong arctic front can pass in 7 days to properly plan for it is outrageous or at least can cause a measure of uncertainty in planning. As long as forecasting has been occuring you'd think you can have a general idea of what will happen in 7 days. But this flip-flopping is ridiculous and when models flip back to warm or near warm we believe them because models hardly ever seem to be wrong about SER, but never really get cold air right. That's legitimate cause for complain is all I'm saying.
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Basically “models are rarely exactly perfectly right but given the pattern/MJO/or possibly the lack of consistent sampling as mentioned.....they’re abysmal of late”. Honestly, I’m not sure models will handle some of this until mere hours away perhaps inside of 36???? My reason for this is the type of winter scenarios on table....we know that CAD is historically poorly modeled and for much of the SE proper it seems to be the more likely winter scenario...at this point I’m enjoying the analysis but paying special attention to the folks who seem to understand global patterns. It’s an amazing ride for sure and I doubt that changes for most of this week.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Yeah, the term fujiwara has been around a while, but that's the first time I have seen it used in relation to a TPV's influence.
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Doesn’t fujiwara have something to do with how two hurricanes react when close to one another?


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Jessy89 said:
Doesn’t fujiwara have something to do with how two hurricanes react when close to one another?


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Google
Fujiwhara effect, sometimes referred to as the Fujiwara effect, Fujiwara interaction or binary interaction, is a phenomenon that occurs when two nearby cyclonic vortices move around each other and close the distance between the circulations of their corresponding low-pressure areas
 
packfan98 said:
No wonder the models are struggling with the TPV pieces.
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Yeah I wonder if this will shear out the vortex as it moves east and cause less confluence over the NE US...sure are alot of things to sort out that effects our sensible weather early next week


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Time to get a bit weenie since I'm looking at the NAM:

Here's the 18Z at hour 51:

nam_namer_051_500_vort_ht.gif

Now to compare, here's the 0Z NAM at hour 45, This shows the PV with a much better trajectory and stronger thus showing how even just out 2 days the models STILL don't yet have a good handle:

nam_namer_045_500_vort_ht.gif
 
The AO is headed for sub -5 on Feb 11 per the image below. How significant is this?

- The last met. winter day (DJF) with sub -5 was way back on 12/18/2010!

- Since 1950, there have been only 35 met. winter days out of 6,318 with a sub -5 AO, which is only ~1/2 % of all winter days. Due to the rarity of this, maybe that is why the models have been so volatile.

- Only 8 winters out of the last 70 have had at least a single day of sub -5 AO:

2010-1 (12/18)

2009-10 (12/20-5, 1/2-6, 2/6-7, 2/14)

1984-5 (1/18-20)

1977-8 (2/5-6)

1976-7 (12/28-9, 1/11-17)

1968-9 (2/13-6)

1965-6 (1/28)

1962-3 (1/21)

- What did the 11 months that contained these 35 days have in common? They were all very cold in the US as a whole, especially E US. You can see that here:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/

- Out of these 35 days, only 11 of them were -5.6 or lower and they were during only 3 periods: 12/21 & 12/23 of 2009, 1/18-20/1985, and 1/12-7/1977.

ao.sprd2.gif
 
packfan98 said:
No wonder the models are struggling with the TPV pieces.
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Funny he posted this. I was literally sitting here observing just that while waiting for the 00z runs. The colder runs where the southernmost vorticity north of Superior at day 5 has enough separation to not interact sooner with the vorticity to its NNE.
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Wild Weather Monger said:
Funny he posted this. I was literally sitting here observing just that while waiting for the 00z runs. The colder runs where the southernmost vorticity north of Superior at day 5 has enough separation to not interact sooner with the vorticity to its NNE.
View attachment 73305
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Ahh yes the long anticipated Fujiwara? It means 33 and rainy for those in Charlotte lol.
 
So for anyone thinking we've lost our Storm threat for early next week, below are the past four looks the EMCF spit out for Tuesday. At this point, all that is important is to have a good look out to day five max. A stronger, further SE TPV in the vicinity of Michigan by Sunday is all I really care about at this point. Truly, beyond 4 days we could just as well pick out any ensemble member and hug it or toss it and it'd be as likely to happen as any of the models deterministic runs in this crazy pattern.
1612926030774.png
1612926005330.png
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1612925762734.png
 
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