That looks like a much more classic CAD look. I'm not excited about this one considering the wave looks to shear out to the east of the ridge. If we can get that to change, I'll get excited.
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Depends. If the 12z euro comes more in line with it that combo would be difficult to shrug off.
iGRXY
Member
Exactly. No model at the end of its range is very reliable. Hell most of them aren't in the medium range. The UK is the only one with even a remote look like that.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Usually these waves beef up in the short-range once they're sampled by RAOBs, so we'll see.
What I really want to see here is that trough over Newfoundland (which is our TPV lobe) to dig and slow more. This would force more cold advection over the NE US and trigger a deeper CAD high and also cause a traffic jam upstream, forcing the ridge and trough in the southern plains to slow, tilt, & amplify. That'll give you the look you want.
Certainly like this trend 
Well....it's that time again!! The DOC is on the mic, what will be the song choice today?
Snownut
Member
Man that lobe. Won’t take much honestly with a position like that. Give me a nanner high and it’s lights out.
Snownut
Member
What exactly needs to happen for this to be more Snow/Sleet in upstate?
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A track off the coast I would think. Nothing running inland
?
Snownut
Member
That's kinda what I was thinking, that's it's more of a track dependant situation
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Jessy89
Member
Just trying to get caught up on model runs after an appointment earlier. One thing that i find curious is that with the low low placement on the GFS off the SE coast, it’s still showing a lot of sleet and ice from the foothills to the coast. Wouldn’t a low in that area be causing 850s to drop on the west side of it?
Coach B
Member
I know its a week out, but the spread on those 12Z GEFS ensembles for next Tuesday is incredible. A couple of them have rain all the way to Indy and Columbus while others have a massive se snowstorm. It's literally all still on the table.
Jessy89
Member
Yes meaning that orange could very well be sleet/Snow. Nw side is the coldest side usually
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I ain’t a player, I just crush a lot
When is the last time CHS or FLO has a major ice event?
Stormsfury
Member
Actually, would be better to cut off an 850mb low south but with steady WSW to SW flow atop the cold dome, it's gonna be hard to come by, even with 925mb temps quite cold to start. The GFS actually does develop a 925mb low offshore which could help out in a deeper sub freeze level which would produce more sleet than ZR...
But the problem is that later in between 700mb and 925mb will be a warm air advective train with the wedge.