Hoping this low has gulf origins and isn’t an Atlantic late bloomer. Hard to say either way at this point. I would lean gulf though.
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Perma-ban for posting anything that doesn’t support snow/ice. @SD MNGR now
Even with the Uk looking terrible it still was starting to develop some damming at the end of its run 
Interesting thing on the Gefs is almost all have a storm at some point .. some hit a bit sooner some hit later ... almost all hit though ? .. just a very fascinating board wide possibility in front of us.. I can’t remember the last time we tracked something this widespread
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, it's hard to find accurate IP only records the further back you go. There are a few storms off the top of my head that occurred here in the wayback machine challenge this sleet total from Wake in Feb 1987.
This storm from Jan 1946 was to my knowledge from what I've read in written records, mostly IP and dropped 10" in Chatham Co, 9" of mostly IP in Chapel Hill & 8" in Ramseur.
This storm from mid Feb 1914 was also a big IP fest, esp south of the Triangle area where widespread 1-3" occurred. Isolated totals of up to 4" occurred down near Lumberton & Elizabethtown and that was basically all sleet. Nearly all written records from SC and southern NC mention mostly sleet in this storm
Another storm that comes to mind is this big dog from Jan 1940. Most of the precip NW of RDU was snow in places like GSO and Roxboro, but from the US HWY 1 corridor and points south & east, it was mostly sleet w/ some snow at the end, totaling nearly 6" of majority sleet in Raleigh. Downtown Raleigh had 5-6" of mostly IP while the airport got 10" & Durham a foot and were more snow than sleet. Now that's a Wake Co gradient lol
Avalanche
Member
Yeah WRAL said the foothills could see some minor ice, so its more than weatherboard talk now.
Heelyes
Member
Maybe the best storm ever! Riding a sled on that was like Clark on his disc.
packfan98
Moderator
Best look we've had with the GEFS I think. Don't pay attention to "snow depth" numbers because it counts all frozen as snow. You can get a good sense of the footprint of where frozen occurs though and which areas get the most.
Avalanche
Member
Just as curious about surface temps as I am precip type.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Best look we've had with the GEFS I think. Don't pay attention to "snow depth" numbers because it counts all frozen as snow. You can get a good sense of the footprint of where frozen occurs though and which areas get the most.
The snow cover prior to this CAD event is particularly deep & extensive to our north over the mid-Atlantic, lower Great Lakes, & NE US. That's going to really going to work wonders when it comes to cold air transport w/ CAD.
Before the storm, the southern extent of the snow cover is down into Virginia, that's really far south for big CAD around here.
Here's the snow depth anomalies from the GEFS
Cough cough feb 2014 cough
Well in fairness, that was showing for 11 days out from that run... at least this time Goofy is showing it within a week
SnowNiner
Member
UKMET not playing ball is a huge red flag. That SE ridge causing an inland runner or cutter is on the table IMO.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'd also take Dec 1930.
Nearly 3 straight days of snow/sleet area-wide. These totals you see from the Triangle area-Monroe & pts southeast are mostly from sleet too. Never changed over to IP in the far northern piedmont in places like Winston, Reidsville, Yanceyville, & Roxboro where up to 2 feet of snow fell in the course of several days.
System before the Feb 12th storm did wonders for that 2014 event. That's why even here in the Midlands, we trended to a sleet threat over freezing rain in the hours leading up to the storm. Snow pack up top will be huge with this.
Philstorm91
Member
I like it when we get a solid snowpack up to the Arctic. That's how you get true cold down here!Best look we've had with the GEFS I think. Don't pay attention to "snow depth" numbers because it counts all frozen as snow. You can get a good sense of the footprint of where frozen occurs though and which areas get the most.
packfan98
Moderator
I agree that it's a red flag. However, if you look at the last three frames, our piece of the TPV just gets obliterated and swept out of the frame. No other model does that, and I have a suspicion that if the TPV is there, it won't be moved out as fast as the model shows.
Stormlover
Member
Anyone have the model verification ratings recently? or a link to them
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's a sfc & z500 map from the Meteocentre website near the peak of this CAD
Here's the z500a & MSLPa via NOAA's 20th century reanalysis version 3:
Link: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/subdaily_20thc/index.html
Y'all, the UKMET absolutely sucks at 144. I'm not 100% sure which event we're focused on, but if it's the one that's been showing up in the 170-200 hour time frame for a couple of weeks, I certainly wouldn't let the Ukie discourage me. Maybe if it started to diverge from other guidance for a winter storm at hour 96, I'd worry a little bit.