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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

00z eps vs 12z eps for Birmingham.
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from Huntsville NWS: Confidence is increasing that there will be some sort of impactful winter weather Monday and Tuesday, but when a degree or two makes a world of difference, it is hard to bank on anything in the day 5-6 timeframe. What we can speak to is that model agreement has improved over the past 24 hours, and ensemble trends have become more favorable for a potential winter/ice storm across the lower MS River and TN River valleys.
 
Storm5 said:
Huntsville
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Click to expand...
Thanks storm. When I look at these now, i take everything past day 5 as a mirage and nothing more. And it seems that look as been similar for the past month. I suppose I should have always looked at it that way, but I think in the past I had more confidence that the models approximated reality.
Here's the freezing rain look for the Tuesday storm. Temperatures look supportive of actual accretion.
1613077891863.png
 
ATLwxfan said:
I should also add that the NAM tends to overdo the CAD as well so we will se how it shakes out.


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When has the NAM ever overdone CAD? That is the best model at sniffing it out to an extent. In fact even it can have trouble at the surface getting the temps right as it can be a degree or 2 too high.
 
iGRXY said:
When has the NAM ever overdone CAD? That is the best model at sniffing it out to an extent. In fact even it can have trouble at the surface getting the temps right as it can be a degree or 2 too high.
Click to expand...
Just 2+ weeks ago the NAM was cold with a CAD setup
 
Another thing to think of for those areas on the borderline of rain/freezing rain, if the temps crash like depicted on some of the models after precip moves out, there is the possibility of flash freezing and black ice I would think.
 
iGRXY said:
When has the NAM ever overdone CAD? That is the best model at sniffing it out to an extent. In fact even it can have trouble at the surface getting the temps right as it can be a degree or 2 too high.
Click to expand...

Can think of two CAD events in December where they eroded faster than predicted by the NAM. Other mesoscale models were less aggressive.


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AFD From Memphis this afternoon:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
333 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...

After the last two years of not seeing much winter precipitation,
the Mid-South will see their fair share of winter weather over the
coming week.

The first system has wrapped up with only some lingering rain
remaining across Northeast Mississippi. Temperatures remain at or
below freezing north and west of a line from Charleston,
Mississippi, northeastward to Oxford, to Selmer, Tennessee. These
are the locations that received some ice and snow accumulations.
Don`t really expect these areas to climb above freezing over the
next week thus any lingering accumulations may stick around unless
a rare peak of sunshine occurs.

Tonight, can`t rule out some patchy freezing drizzle or flurries
occurring behind the departing cold front. Colder air will
continue to filter into the Mid-South behind the front. Clouds
will help keep temperatures in the lower 20s to lower 30s for
lows, but will keep temperatures from rising much as cold air
advection occurs as well. Highs on Friday will range from the
upper 20s across Northeast Arkansas to the lower 40s across
Northeast Mississippi.

A shortwave will bring chances for freezing rain Friday Night into
Saturday for areas along and south of Interstate 40. Will keep an
eye on this as some minor ice accumulations could be possible.
South and east of Tupelo, temperatures may stay just above
freezing for precipitation to stay all rain.

By Sunday, a more potent shortwave will begin to move into the
Mid-South bringing another chance of a wintry mix to the region.
Chances for winter precipitation will increase significantly by
Sunday Night through Monday Night as an upper trof moves through
the region. Too early to pinpoint exact precipitation type or
accumulations. However, right now the current thinking is areas
roughly along and west of the Mississippi River will see sleet and
snow while areas east of the river will see freezing rain, sleet
and possibly snow at the tail end of the system. Significant
accumulations will be possible with this system. Please stay tuned
to future forecasts as the system gets closer in time.

Arctic high pressure will briefly build into behind this trof.
However, another upper trof will swing into the Mid-South bringing
another round of wintry precipitation to the Mid-South Wednesday
into Thursday. This system has the potential to bring significant
impacts to the Mid-South as well. Please stay tuned to forecasts
for this system as well.

In addition to the wintry precipitation, bitterly cold wind chills
will be possible Sunday morning through Tuesday morning.
 
Wow

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
351 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134-141-120600-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0002.210214T0600Z-210216T0000Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Comanche-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano,
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper,
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory,
East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman,
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose,
Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Comanche,
and De Leon
351 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 7 inches possible. Bitterly cold
temperatures expected. Near blizzard conditions possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel will become nearly impossible and could become
life threatening. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero
could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precautions should be taken now to secure
pipes and anything susceptible to the extreme cold. Have plenty
of food and ways to stay warm in case of power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&
 
Already getting a Winter Storm Watch issued here. Although it feels a little early if you ask me.

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON CST
SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills
expected. Wind chills as low as 10 below zero.

For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow
accumulations of 7 to 10 inches possible. Wind chill values 10
to 25 degrees below zero Sunday and Monday mornings.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest, southwest
and western Oklahoma.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 3 AM Friday to noon
CST Saturday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from late Saturday
night through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Strong
winds may lead to blowing and drifting snow and reduced
visibilities. The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on
exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.
 
Brent said:
Wow

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
351 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134-141-120600-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0002.210214T0600Z-210216T0000Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Comanche-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano,
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper,
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory,
East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman,
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose,
Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Comanche,
and De Leon
351 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 7 inches possible. Bitterly cold
temperatures expected. Near blizzard conditions possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel will become nearly impossible and could become
life threatening. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero
could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precautions should be taken now to secure
pipes and anything susceptible to the extreme cold. Have plenty
of food and ways to stay warm in case of power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&
Click to expand...
Looks like DFW's snowless streak will end with a bang
 
For anyone who knows how to read soundings. This storm coming in Sunday through Monday for the Memphis area. Does this look more on the lines of Sleet/Freezing Rain or Snow?
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
That is one confusing map.
Click to expand...
They say this:
Heavy snow across portions of the Southern Plains, the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, the
Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Great Lakes, Mon, Feb 15.
Heavy precipitation across portions of the Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the
Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Southern/Central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the
Northeast, Mon-Tue, Feb 15-Feb 16.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley,
the Southern/Central Appalachians, the Ohio Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Great Lakes, and the
Northeast, Wed-Thu, Feb 17-Feb 18.
Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northern/Central/Southern Rockies, the
Northern/Central/Southern Plains, the Upper/Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the
Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, Sun-Thu, Feb 14-Feb 18.
 
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