What a jet structure not that many miles east and it would have buried the region
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Stormlover
Member
Storm5
Member
Remember when we were looking at 24 hour plus winter storm . This thing Monday ZIPS through in like six hours
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Stormlover
Member
disagree, it lingers, some models have it sat through tuesday...euro has it early monday into the overnight before it ends...gfs is a long event too, just looked and it covers about 24 hours
So we skipping the good trends today?
JLL1973
Member
all mdels continue to depict an ice storm in my area but i would agree by verification time memphis is going to be the hot spotEuro trending warmer each run . Memphis is the place to be
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Storm5
Member
It’s not constant . It’s in little waves and the precip is much lighter . Can still cause problems but far from the monster we were once looking at
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Stormlover
Member
do what? .82 of ice on the GFS? Canadian is a monster storm, as is the ICON and the Euro has now come around...I don't know what you are seeing...this looks bad for Huntsville and the shoals
Natedogg25
Member
Question- if the models have a hard time with swallow layers of cold air near the surface, then isn't reasonable to figure in some sort of margin of error as it relates to the east progression shown on the model runs?
StormStalker
Member
I agree. I’ve been right on the line but I still feel like it’s going to be close.
Storm5
Member
Memphis gets multiple winter storms on the euro through next Thursday
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Storm5
Member
Stormlover
Member
Jason Simpson here said no winter wx yesterday, now he says this:
Wednesday, I told you might change my mind on the idea of the winter storm threat...not sold yet, but it looks like a very close call: even one of those where it's impactful to a part of one county and not another. It's a very sharp division between those who will and won't, and just to be honest, there's no way to resolve that right now.
Too close to call means it's probably leaning toward some ice on Monday. How much will depend upon where you are and just how cold it can get. For many, it may be low-30s and rain while others (I'm looking at you NW Alabama and Tennessee) have either freezing rain or a wintry mix. Details will be coming in the next couple of days, but we're leaning colder and potentially wintry from Sunday night into Monday.
Wednesday, I told you might change my mind on the idea of the winter storm threat...not sold yet, but it looks like a very close call: even one of those where it's impactful to a part of one county and not another. It's a very sharp division between those who will and won't, and just to be honest, there's no way to resolve that right now.
Too close to call means it's probably leaning toward some ice on Monday. How much will depend upon where you are and just how cold it can get. For many, it may be low-30s and rain while others (I'm looking at you NW Alabama and Tennessee) have either freezing rain or a wintry mix. Details will be coming in the next couple of days, but we're leaning colder and potentially wintry from Sunday night into Monday.
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Good for them
The euro basically just says we repeat the king king storm ... okay so we get two chances to make something happen... also people will probably think we’re all done with the ice threat but I promise we’re going to see more CAD build in .. happens all the time .. let’s see what happens ??
Marycrowley
Member
wondering this as well
I see supercells for me. For the win!!!!Euro trending warmer each run . Memphis is the place to be
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JLL1973
Member
i would love to see the euro ice accumulation map for midsouth area through next week
Yeah it'll be interesting to see where the inverted trough sets up and how far east the sub freezing temps can get for you guys. If I were within 1 or 2 layers of counties from the freezing line on the models I'd certainly keep a watch
Stormlover
Member
Flotown
Member
what about sleet??
Stormlover
Member
JLL1973
Member
you and i both around half inch.
Storm5
Member
For Huntsville and NW Alabama the hood news is if you wants ice there it’s still four days out . Will be interesting to see if the cold push is a little better vs what’s being shown currently
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Flotown
Member
Thanks,hopefully we can trend to more sleet and less freezing rain
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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It’s up to 6-7 according to TWC, from the I-35 pileup alone
NWMSGuy
Member
GFS looked similar to me as well.
It looks like those of us in the lower MS valley have quite an interesting ride ahead for the several days.
EMTime
Member
Hoping it trends colder. I do NOT want an ice storm.
Snow, yes.
Sleet, yes.
Freezing rain? %&#$ no!
Snow, yes.
Sleet, yes.
Freezing rain? %&#$ no!
David in SW Blount
Member
Yikes, I live near Birmingham but work in Decatur. Thankfully for a college that will likely close if this happens. I'm in an elevated part of SW Blount County, and we sometimes have icing when lower elevations don't. I will certainly take a pass on that!
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olhausen
Member
Wow really hard not get excited about the next week for this area.
Euro
Gfs
Euro
Gfs
Welp, I guess I am eating crow. Barring some miracle in some of the short range modeling it looks like we're going to get the screw over once again. This has been the worst winter I can remember. I mean last years was horrible too, but watching everyone to our west score multiple times in 2 weeks why we are stuck with a cold rain is painful. If I didn't have a good job and didn't have family/friends here, I'd be moving west of the Apps. I really though CAD would throw us a bone next week. Damn the SER!
cd2play
Member
I think a significant winter storm is a lock. The question is, how much is snow vs ice.
49 weather
Member
Guys google ice storm February 1 and 2 1985.
tractor girl
Member
The 1985 Northwest Alabama Winter Storm
On Friday, February 1, 1985, the forecasts were dire for the Birmingham area and much of Central Alabama. It was expected to be the biggest winter storm since the 1982 ice storm. Winter storm warni…
www.alabamawx.com
How was that pattern similar to the one we are seeing slip through our models today?
49 weather
Member
The 1985 Northwest Alabama Winter Storm
On Friday, February 1, 1985, the forecasts were dire for the Birmingham area and much of Central Alabama. It was expected to be the biggest winter storm since the 1982 ice storm. Winter storm warni…
How was that pattern similar to the one we are seeing slip through our models today?
A very slow moving front that fluctuated back and forth before leaving 5 to 6 inches of ice on the ground along with trees and power lines.The 1985 Northwest Alabama Winter Storm
On Friday, February 1, 1985, the forecasts were dire for the Birmingham area and much of Central Alabama. It was expected to be the biggest winter storm since the 1982 ice storm. Winter storm warni…
How was that pattern similar to the one we are seeing slip through our models today?
iGRXY
Member
First time today I had a chance to look at the models. I'm not going to call it quits just yet until we get to probably saturday and get into range of the short range models but I am about to wave the white flag on this one and honestly winter itself. Still time for changes not only to this storm but for another opportunity to come along but I am getting my "end of the season" blues where I am ready to just get to spring (and no humidity).
Stormlover
Member