Agreed. The good news it is progressing east at a good clip so it does deliver arctic air board-wide over the course of its run.
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
That tells me the euro op isn’t done shifting Se
This is what I'm hoping for. Day 4 (96hrs out) seems to be the timeframe the LR models lock in better. Need to see about 3 more runs of correction and maybe by Monday morning we begin to see how this will lay out for next weekend
Stormlover
Member
Still the same look here 
Broken024
Member
Anything interesting on eps snow maps?
Stormlover
Member
Says it well:
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
Thoughts: Next week's forecast contains A LOT of uncertainty, more than what we would like. We know that there will be cold air around and some form of precipitation, but that's really as clear as we can be right now.
Please be patient as all local METs try to figure it out
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
Wow the models are waffling back? I’m so shocked and completely surprised about this happening ... who could have seen this coming NO ONE unreal ......
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In all seriousness though we’re looking at what seems to be at least some type of ice storm .. at least that’s what we’re trending towards for someone in the SE
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In all seriousness though we’re looking at what seems to be at least some type of ice storm .. at least that’s what we’re trending towards for someone in the SE
Stephenb888
Member
Does the system we are dealing with today have any effect on why the models can’t really pick up on what’s gonna happen next week?
Even the NAM is headed the right direction with increasing heights out west
cd2play
Member
This is going to end up being a nowcast event.
Stormsfury
Member
We have seen guidance constantly shift hundreds of miles in one model cycle which this season has been absolutely absurd at times...
I almost at times think the guidance thinks the huge block up north gets treated like some Bermuda High and just loves shoving things west like it's in some tropical trade wind flow...
Basically now we see if my suspicion comes to fruition and we'll take it from there. No use trying to pinpoint details with the wildly swinging run to run inconsistencies.
Stormlover
Member
wow, HUN says thundersnow thur night?
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
MichaelJ
Member
What we need is for the TPV to slide to the Eastern GL ( Lake Erie would be perfect) and a tad south. I do not however think it will come that far east, hope it does though
ForsythSnow
Moderator
NewnanWetather
Member
Oh the majestic thunder snow. Only seen it 3 times in my adult life and it always pours snow .
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That's for huntsville however. Not N ga.
NewnanWetather
Member
Yes I know I just love thunder snow since it seems kind of rare in the South. Cool to see anybody getting a shot at it. Newnan rarely sees snow
2/26/04 and 3/1/09... my two favorite times experiencing thunder snow... in ‘04 I could see the lightning flashes reflect off the heavy snow falling and got 6 inches in 2 hours. In ‘09 Cantore was doing a live shot only 2 miles from my house in Charlotte at the time and I heard it overhead and on the TV
Similar to the Doc trends for the US, yest's 12Z EPS trended much warmer than the coldest run, yest's 0Z, which in itself was way colder than the Thu 12Z run. And then today's 0Z trended much warmer than yest's 12Z. So, in other words, each of the last 2 EPS were much warmer than their respective prior runs. Today's 12Z didn't go all the way back to the very cold 0Z of yest, but it did go back much colder than today's 0Z and even got to a little colder than than yest's 12Z! So, of all of the EPS runs this winter to date, the only colder EPS run than today's 12Z is yest's 0Z for the US as a whole. Also, as said before, today's 12Z GEFS is by a good margin THE coldest run of the winter to date!
Looking ahead, I'd be pleasantly surprised if the 18Z GEFS weren't a good amount warmer than the 12Z since that is the coldest of the winter. I'd consider it a big win if it is only a little warmer than 12Z and still ok if it is only moderately warmer because that's how these things typically swing from run to run. When you have THE coldest run of the winter to date by a sig margin and it has the US just about as cold as it has ever been on record overall, the odds are typically stacked for the next run to be at least somewhat warmer.
Regarding tonight's 0Z EPS vs today's 12Z, that's a tougher call. With today's 12Z being so much colder than today's 0Z, it wouldn't surprise me if tonight's 0Z goes back a little warmer.
Looking ahead, I'd be pleasantly surprised if the 18Z GEFS weren't a good amount warmer than the 12Z since that is the coldest of the winter. I'd consider it a big win if it is only a little warmer than 12Z and still ok if it is only moderately warmer because that's how these things typically swing from run to run. When you have THE coldest run of the winter to date by a sig margin and it has the US just about as cold as it has ever been on record overall, the odds are typically stacked for the next run to be at least somewhat warmer.
Regarding tonight's 0Z EPS vs today's 12Z, that's a tougher call. With today's 12Z being so much colder than today's 0Z, it wouldn't surprise me if tonight's 0Z goes back a little warmer.
Oof ?