Hello there strat PV ?? #torch 
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Stormsfury
Member
Well the 18z GFS just decided to pop an ULL over Maine straight out of nowhere at 120hr...
Quite a strong signal on the GEFS for cold rain damming
RollTide18
Member
Members starting to pick up on Saturday/Sunday storm
#20 is malfunctioning
There is sooo many factors in play right there. I am wonder if the -NAO is going to do the dirty work here and "pull" or TPV east and SE faster. See the height fields lowering over the NE and just NE of there? I wonder how much the building heights is going to work on the west coast as well. Damn what a very hard pattern to figure out and the EURO is super struggling.
Wouldn’t be surprised tonight to see Euro go cold and GFS warm, because that’s what models do.
The story of the year has been lowering heights around there under the block, I’d imagine lower heights around there allows a faster exit for the TPV, and yeah those changes in the pacific are massive
I agree heights are rising. What a frustrating pattern
Yes, nice to see the ridge bridging on the west coast to Alaska on the 18Z. Interesting to see If that trends stronger in future runs
I agree. I saw your video on Facebook earlier today and I can imagine your frustration is being felt by forecasters throughout the country
Pretty huge change on the 18z EPS so far wrt heights around the WC
Can you elaborate?
lol it’s trending back to a legit wave of cold again on the EPS if it keeps doing that (digging) 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The negative NAO actually does the opposite here. Think about the large scale flow around this block, to the south you have anomalous easterly flow that’s trying to slow down the TPV and keep it further to the west longer.
The control has some freezing rain for CAD areas 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
35 and rain here in Fayetteville. Cold rain. Every. Damn. Time.
Lol this is gonna be a ice storm by tomorrow if this continues 
Good call
Man, that is just an incredible spread. I'm beginning to think it's simply that all of the globals simply don't have the skill to model this anomalous TPV in southern Canada beyond 72 hours.
Wilkes onset?
Lol the EPS/control has a CAD ice signal just a day after now 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oth the NAO is the reason this TPV is going south towards southern Canada instead of rapidly lifting north out of the way like what often happens in negative EPO and positive nao we saw in winters like 2013-14
Lol this pattern could literally range from a ice storm to a 70 degree day at HOUR 114 LMFAO
It could.... but what is coming is 46 and rain.
LickWx
Member
And what will end up happening if history last 6 weeks means anything is we will be a little bit warmer than the ice storm solution . Cold rain and 36 with a T of glaze .
Had we not seen last weeks model runs we would probably be somewhat excited about the EPS...?
Hot damn, I just saw the 18Z EPS! What a change vs prior runs. Holy heck, this at 144 arguably looks better than the 18Z GEFS! Where the heck did this come from?
I know Southernwx provides all members a mulligan of 18Z. But I’m sure not going to toss this one.
Is this just a tease that will revert to crapola on the next runs or is this the start of a new good trend? Anyone brave enough to predict? No wishcasting please lol. Be objective.
I know Southernwx provides all members a mulligan of 18Z. But I’m sure not going to toss this one.
Is this just a tease that will revert to crapola on the next runs or is this the start of a new good trend? Anyone brave enough to predict? No wishcasting please lol. Be objective.
I think when we get closer we will see less changes and into more of a agreement.
Did it get posted? I predict more big run to run changes.
Icon trending colder on Friday.
ICON has freezing rain for CAD areas 
NCSNOW
Member
icon have a 850 temp map
Looks like things are a bit cold in Texas.
Stormlover
Member
ICON wants back in the game. Colder, and a little snow next weekend from north ala west
ICON has CCM (Cold chasing moisture) on this run.
Well then. hr 168 and hr 180
JHS
Member
Would not take too much more to make ice a serious problem especially in NC. 5 degrees cooler would make this a real mess from CLT up to the triad and on over to the triangle. Would take about 6-8 to make it a big problem in upstate SC.
super cold coming down with the ICON as well
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Have that trough over the Great Basin progress east about 12 hours faster and it’s basically perfect looking synoptically