Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

[Faco Thomas]

We can see why the doc looks better this run, there's a wave train in height anomaly changes that emanate from a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, it's lifting more this run and speeding up the flow in the NE Pacific & kicking the vortex east

View attachment 72153

Not sure if the Euro will go more in the GFS direction or the CMC with the PV.I If we can continue to see adjustments in the PV toward being further east on all of the models with a stronger +PNA, maybe The GFS and GEFS might actually be correct for once in showing a potential winter storm in the SE in the 8-11 day range.

 

[NWMSGuy]

EURO still too warm for the Mid-South at hour 120.

 

[Webberweather53]

The ECMWF looks markedly better than last night's 0z dumpster fire but is about the same as yesterday's 12z

 

[deltadog03]

old vs new

 

[$alt]

I'm thinking we might be in a situation at this point that if we split the difference and toss the rogue Euro type runs out from yesterday, there's plenty of potential with more energy flying through. Do I see another 12 inch+ snow storm creeping across the deep South? No, but I do see a chance at some Winter weather for everyone when it's all said and done and the pattern relaxes.

 

[KyloG]

GEFS trending strong with Yukon ridge...

 

[Storm5]

EURO still too warm for the Mid-South at hour 120.

I’ve punted that timeframe. 13th-17th or bust now


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[deltadog03]

The ECMWF looks markedly better than last night's 0z dumpster fire but is about the same as yesterday's 12z

well, you wanted trends...hahah
but a very good trend for sure. I think the THUR/FRI is gonna be tough for most, but could set it up for next weekend?

 

[GaWx]

The ECMWF looks markedly better than last night's 0z dumpster fire but is about the same as yesterday's 12z

Exactly as I’m seeing it, too. The Fri 0Z Euro was the coldest Euro. Then there were 2 warmer runs. Now this new run has backtracked one of the 2 warmer runs back to yesterday’s 12Z Doc, which is great to see. Now the question is will the Euro on an upcoming run backtrack the same amount and get us fully back to the very cold 0Z Euro Fri level of cold? Very possible.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Something to watch

 

[Webberweather53]

GEFS trending strong with Yukon ridge...

View attachment 72160

Would be interesting if that trough over the Aleutian keeps lifting even further north in later runs.

 

[Storm5]

Euro has the same energy as the gfs swinging through next Saturday

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[Meteorologist1999]

Would be interesting if that trough over the Aleutian keeps lifting even further north in later runs.

That seem to be a major factor too.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[GaWx]

How much colder is 12Z Doc vs 0Z?



How much warmer was the 0Z vs yest 12Z?



Comparing the maps, I’d say today’s 12Z is actually a little colder than yest’s 12Z though still not nearly as cold as yest’s 0Z. Anyway, great trends on most models today at 12Z!

 

[Faco Thomas]

GEFS trending strong with Yukon ridge...

View attachment 72160

Love the fact that GEFS is trend towards more ridging in Alaska/far Northwest Canada. Now I would like to see the models to trend away from the SE ridge/WAR and move the PV towards SE Canada/ southern Quebec and thing can maybe get really interesting for us.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Geez lol the changes

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Euro has the same energy as the gfs swinging through next Saturday

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Indeed. And with the TPV a bit north and west of the GFS, it would likely not be sheared as much.

 

[Storm5]

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[Jon]

Geez lol the changes View attachment 72169

Yeah pretty much negated the changes from yesterday’s suite. Honestly can’t say I expect that.



I’d love for the EPS to have this wrong and cave to the GEFS.


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