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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

GaWx said:
Big difference in 12Z Doc. It actually looks like a lot more than a ? step!
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I agree it’s a baby step or even a crawl in the right direction, but still it’s like yet another completely different solution from a model that, for as long as I’ve been following computer models, has been fairly steady without wild swings. We’ve been seeing this all season. There has to be something going on to cause the swings
 
Beyond basically day 3-4, we're flying totally blind in this pattern. Models are literally clueless wrt what to do w/ this TPV in southern Canada and I mean that in every sense of the word. If you're looking for run-run trends in the models look in the day 2-5 timeframe here, after that it's basically fantasy.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Beyond basically day 3-4, we're flying totally blind in this pattern. Models are literally clueless wrt what to do w/ this TPV in southern Canada and I mean that in every sense of the word. If you're looking for run-run trends in the models look in the day 2-5 timeframe here, after that it's basically fantasy.
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Apparently, but why?
 
JJr said:
Apparently, but why?
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There's very strong high-latitude blocking directly north of this feature, we basically have a rex block in Canada atm, those are notoriously difficult to predict and always give the models fits more than a few days out, we saw this in December when a giant ridge went up over the same exact place where this vortex currently is. This TPV lobe is also over a relatively more data sparse region of central Canada where fewer people live and observing sites are located, making it more difficult to properly sample this feature. I think the Rex blocking is playing the biggest role in the uncertainty here w/ some minor contribution from data availability
 
Lol this won’t work
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Webberweather53 said:
Beyond basically day 3-4, we're flying totally blind in this pattern. Models are literally clueless wrt what to do w/ this TPV in southern Canada and I mean that in every sense of the word. If you're looking for run-run trends in the models look in the day 2-5 timeframe here, after that it's basically fantasy.
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yep this times a million, I just hope that back in the 8-10 day range when all the models basically had the same look for a few runs they were having a moment of clarity lol.....really we wont know what is going to happen next weekend till mid week at best at this point since the models seem to have no idea either.....
 
HSV

The long-term portion of the forecast continues to be a real
challenge between two competing airmasses and deterministic model
runs. Neither the GFS nor ECMWF want to give ground and trend towards
the other solution. The GFS continues to bring a bone chilling cold
airmass into the area. The minimum temperature output from the GFS
for Saturday morning would be the coldest airmass in the last 25
years. The model indicates a low of 3 degrees for Huntsville. The
last time the Huntsville area experienced a low of 3 degrees or below
was back in January of 1996. Even in this bitterly cold run of the
GFS, it looks like the only chance for wintry weather would be a
brief changeover to a mixture of rain/snow late Thursday night into
early Friday morning. Additionally, it`s very rare to have these kind
of airmasses without snow on the ground although it can happen.
 
Storm5 said:
My post had nothing to do with ensembles . I was simply pointing out the differences with the OPs


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Oh I know but the CMC is a huge outlier and tbh shouldn’t be taken serious, would be funny if something like it happened tho lol
 
Storm5 said:
The gfs is all alone . It’s own ensembles don’t even support it. It’s not going below zero next weekend


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You are correct . Gfs is on an island all by itself. Gfs is showing 0 next weekend. Not even going to be close. Probably lower 20s in reality
 
You know the mets at NWS offices throughout the country have to be struggling right now when trying to put together forecasts right now. A lot of times from reading their discussions you’ll notice that beyond 5 days, they’ll often use a blend of the models in the forecast. How can that be effective right now when you have so much discrepancies in the different models??
 
From RAH (basically what we already know):

Forecast confidence lessens considerably thereafter for the Friday
through Sunday period. While it appears that a stream of moisture
and waves of low pressure will be lifting NE along the SE US coastal
region during this time (thanks to yet another upper trough
deepening over the Southern Plains), the GFS suggests that enough
cold air may slip into our area behind Thursday`s system to warrant
p-type concerns with the wx system next weekend. It`s worth
pointing out though...that the GFS recently has been too aggressive
with pushing cold air into our area during the more distant parts of
the forecast, and then seems to pull back on the magnitude of the
cold air as events draw near. So for now, will mentioned p-type mix
in the wx grids for next weekend, but confidence in this happening
is well below average. Nevertheless...stay tuned
 
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