I dont understand how they're on different planets within 5 days thats insane
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
While the UKMET is undoubtedly warmer, it in no way places the TPV anywhere near Idaho as the CMC does. It's NW of the GFS position, but considering the struggles models are having with that TPV placement, it's not the train wreck of the CMC and could easily trend better. Whew!
NCSNOW
Member
Greensboro has avg BN for Dec,Jan and now Feb is like -2 to date. Weve had 4 seperate snow events and barely at the 1 -1.5 total snow accum here at house.
I remind myself daily of how miserable I was certain this winter would be. So this is winning to me minus the snow dept so far. I usually have a decent feel and start deciding around Feb 15th if its time to throw in the towel. Usually we can see the last 2 weeks of Feb in model world] and make a decent educated guess if its over or any hope to stay in game.
I remind myself daily of how miserable I was certain this winter would be. So this is winning to me minus the snow dept so far. I usually have a decent feel and start deciding around Feb 15th if its time to throw in the towel. Usually we can see the last 2 weeks of Feb in model world] and make a decent educated guess if its over or any hope to stay in game.
Storm5
Member
Almost no support at all for the 13th/14th system on the GEFS
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
olhausen
Member
I believe as late as last Tuesday the gfs was showing a high of 12 degrees for White House today. Reality is going to be 36-38 degrees. Parts of eastern middle Tennessee got crushed again last night which is getting harder to watch with each system missing us and only about a month left of a possible good snow.
DR. NO (ie SE sucks) is on the mic...
Storm5
Member
Euro is cmc like
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I guess possible storms/severe thursday?
Not that it is anything great, but it sure looks like it is likely going to come in colder than 0Z Doc at this early stage fwiw.
Better than 00z though.
Storm5
Member
This won’t work . This is well west of the gfs
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Euro looking even worse now than yesterday. Womp
I mean at least the GFS/GEFS you can look at tell it’s just some small differences that create the different look, but this is completely opposite looks..lol!! I’m so glad I don’t make my living off this stuff
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That's vs the 0z run from this morning...
I know, I guess you're right if you're comparing 06z. I don't usually.
00z vs 12z
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Last 3 12z Euro runs.
EURO closing off that energy near and NW of pac NW. I think the faster it does that the Further South and EAST our TPV can get. Its further south this run so far.
Clayton
Member
By logic, the cold has to move east EVENTUALLY right?! It can only be delayed for so long. Or do weather patterns that move west to east on a REGULAR basis not occur anymore?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This run actually improves a lot after this frame, but I'm worried that trend which we're also seeing in the GEFS & GFS at this timeframe ~3-5 days out, about when perhaps these trends have some meaning, might drag the TPV even further west in later runs if it continues
so.....how about another EURO solution?? I have a feeling what is going to happen (well hell..possibly) LOL notice how the last 3 runs the energy over BC is coming "detached" and closing off as an ULL?? EURO has been pulling away from that quicker and quicker the last few runs...look at the difference this run so far.
00z vs 12z
00z vs 12z
HUGE changes from the 00z run vs 12z run with the TPV...
Storm5
Member
One thing is for sure the gfs has no support for the 13th/14th system
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NCSNOW
Member
It splits tpv into 2 pieces lol. Am I seeing that right? Ill sign up for this and take a shot. Better than whole enchilada going to NW and dyeing out
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There has been literally zero consistency from one Euro run to another lately. Each new run basically reverses the trend of the previous one flipping wildly from shoving the TPV towards Ontario or holding it back over SK and Manitoba.
Watch tonight's 0z Euro go back to garbage again like it has the past few days.
Watch tonight's 0z Euro go back to garbage again like it has the past few days.
Stormsfury
Member
Greater separation... but we continue to trend of having no discernable trends with anything in the MR/LR...
Except moisture .. we got plenty of moisture...
The separation if a trend here forced the TpV further SE on the flanks of higher heights in between... we're not done with these wild shifts just yet
old vs new...
I don't honestly think i remember last time I seen such wild swings run to run with the euro
I don't honestly think i remember last time I seen such wild swings run to run with the euro
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah I would say the Euro looks fine actually at 144. I was thinking earlier that there was some differences too.
Last night's run had a much stronger ridge near the same time period. This one doesn't.
Last night's run had a much stronger ridge near the same time period. This one doesn't.
CAD setup later ? Also another TPV being thrown in 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ugh cold rain CAD... Make it stop
Snownut
Member
What happened with all the arctic Air we was supposed to get this week, to help with this storm?
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L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Such a joke. These models are so bad this year.
Storm5
Member