Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

[ForsythSnow]

A few members that are south

View attachment 72144

I checked the 850s for some of those members and just saw the member with snow in south Florida. -30C at 850 on one member . Can only wonder what the surface has.

 

[SWVAwxfan]

This panel would makes most of us very happy if it verified.

 

[SWVAwxfan]

I checked the 850s for some of those members and just saw the member with snow in south Florida. -30C at 850 on one member . Can only wonder what the surface has.

If it snows in s Florida. I would hate to see my low temp.

 

[Faco Thomas]

Think of it this way as well. Even if *MOST* on the board, outside of MS, TN and maybe some NC see rain and or storms with the The THur-Fri part, its not all bad news...WHY? The TPV still has to come SE. The cold will push through, IMHO. The TPV could then line up with the weekend threat, or early the following week!! Storm is right...The dates maybe a little later, but I like where we are heading.

What if we get a solution that's similar to the Canadian and the cold front never get past the Appalachians? The GFS and the GEFS do look good/great in the post 6 day range. However I feel like we been through this before and as Cold Rain point edit out, the models want to keep the MJO in phase 7 for a while, which might work against us going forward.

 

[SWVAwxfan]

I really don't put a lot of stock in the CMC.

 

[deltadog03]

What if we get a solution that's similar to the Canadian and the cold front never get past the Appalachians? The GFS and the GEFS do look good/great in the post 6 day range. However I feel like we been through this before and as Cold Rain point edit out, the models want to keep the MJO in phase 7 for a while, which might work against us going forward.

ya if the front never clears the mtns then we have issues for sure.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro looks better

 

[deltadog03]

Euro looks better View attachment 72146

yes please

 

[deltadog03]

0z vs 12z. It's a little further SE for sure.

 

[GaWx]

Euro looks better View attachment 72146

Doc looking like it will be consistent with the colder 12Z trends, indeed.

By the way, the 12Z GEFS is the coldest run yet for the US for the run as a whole!

 

[deltadog03]

Maybe splitting hairs but DEF a bit SE with the TPV vs 00z run
0z vs 12z

 

[SWVAwxfan]

The DOC definitely showing some improvement

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hopefully this trend will mean the TPV can actually move East this run

 

[cd2play]

Doc looking like it will be consistent with the colder 12Z trends, indeed.

By the way, the 12Z GEFS is the coldest run yet for the US for the run as a whole!

Back to the high five solutions. We’re back in business

 

[GaWx]

Maybe splitting hairs but DEF a bit SE with the TPV vs 00z run
0z vs 12z
View attachment 72150View attachment 72151

Doc clearly going to be a colder run than 0Z. No, not as cold as GFS but the key is it is colder than its prior runs. Trend is friend.

 

[deltadog03]

Def. further SE this run so far

 

[Webberweather53]

We can see why the doc looks better this run, there's a wave train in height anomaly changes that emanate from a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, it's lifting more this run and speeding up the flow in the NE Pacific & kicking the vortex east

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We can see why the doc looks better this run, there's a wave train in height anomaly changes that emanate from a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, it's lifting more this run and speeding up the flow in the NE Pacific & kicking the vortex east

View attachment 72153

That amped ass North Pacific wave train has been responsible in screwing everything up the last week

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Those little changes are huge and still show how important the position of that TPV really is

 

[olhausen]

Jesus the cmc has a nasty ice storm in Texas , LA , Mississippi, Arkansas , NW Ala and western Tennessee from Sunday the 13th-15th


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Yeah this honestly makes me want temps to be warm. I want absolutely no part of this even if it means giving up a foot of snow later in the month. It’s just not worth it with ZR and the temps that would follow.