Oh wow, and thats a week from Monday. Sounds like it is similar to the CMC, I really wonder if this boundary is ever going to make its way through.
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Oh wow, and thats a week from Monday. Sounds like it is similar to the CMC, I really wonder if this boundary is ever going to make its way through.
Never recall this degree of swings from Doc to Doc and also from Doc ens to Doc ens! Maybe it can’t handle well this very anomalous pattern?
BNAwx
Member
The Euro seems to have trouble finding the cold lately. It could very well be correct but the run to run swings it’s having should be a red flag.
Jon
Member
GFS is having similar run to run swings but for some reason people are ignoring it because it’s colder maybe? Compare hour 174 on the 0z to hour 180 on the 18z. It’s having trouble with the TPV lobe as well, run to run. The GEFS actually went toward the Euro EPS tonight
Well, while still very cold and much colder than the Euro suite, the 0Z GEFS wasn’t nearly as cold as the 18Z/12Z.
Meanwhile, as the 0Z EPS comes out, it is going to end up a good bit warmer run overall vs the 12Z. However, the good news is that thanks to a somewhat colder late part of the run, it won’t be as warm as the awful EPS of 24 hours ago. And now we can hope for a flop back in the colder direction at 12Z. Fingers and toes crossed!
Any guesses about the next EPS run? Will 12Z flip back? Will it maintain the current run’s warming? Will it be even warmer?
If models didn’t flip so much, model watching would be pretty boring imo.
BNAwx
Member
So, here’s the final verdict on the 0Z EPS: it went back warmer than the 12Z by a good bit, but it only went about 2/3 of the way back toward the 0Z of yesterday for the US as a whole. Ok, the hope now for the next run is for a reversal of that 2/3 warming back to the level of cold in the 12Z run of yesterday. Isn’t model watching fun? I'm already ready to see the 6Z GFS! Fingers crossed!
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I think if the 12z GFS caves tomorrow and delays the cold out past ten days again it’s safe to say there are some errors being digested by the models and it’s never getting here. Hopefully that isn’t the case though.
There appears to be systematic error that results in delay, delay, delay with this highly anomalous pattern of strong -AO/south displaced PV. What might that cause be? Could it be the very warm W Pacific rearing its ugly head again? Could it also be the influence of La Nina, which typically doesn't like strong Midwest cold to make it far into the SE?
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Even though the 0Z EPS is warmer, it maintains a threat of ZR 2/16-7 for the main CAD areas fairly similar to the 1Z EPS. So, that period still bears close watching.
Anyone have ZR and other wintry precip for the individual members?
Anyone have ZR and other wintry precip for the individual members?
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Concerning coupled with that little flex of the ridge. Albeit the euro is worlds apart from the GFS..
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
06z gfs is once again delayed on the "Arctic outbreak". I really do not believe it's going to happen.
I guess the one thing that puts up red flags to me about the Euro is it’s insistence on some of these runs on wanting to bring a multi-day torch to the entire southeast. Ever since this -NAO has been established, that just hasn’t happened. Couple it now with the strong -AO. With that said, I don’t really buy into the extreme cold that the GFS keeps wanting to push southeast... which is fine because you don’t need extreme cold for wintry weather.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
So much for La Niña keeping us dry.
At this point, I don't think the cold front will ever clear coast in time and when/if it does, the cold air will be marginal enough to point we(shy of a major CAD event) will probably with a cold rain event anyway regardless of storm track. Major step back from the 12Z runs when the cold air was further east on the models.
Storm5
Member
Still interested here . Euro has the same energy just has the TPV further NW
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Gfs still dangling carrots in front of us
Andddd the 06z EPS is colder. Lol
There’s actually a strengthening CAD signal around the medium range 
there isn’t anything positive about the extended...except what will be the increasing temps
You can see by day 5 a trough forming in the west
the PV we wanted to slide East finally does but is weaker and we have a deep trough in the west which builds ridge in east.
writing is on the wall for Feb
You can see by day 5 a trough forming in the west
the PV we wanted to slide East finally does but is weaker and we have a deep trough in the west which builds ridge in east.
writing is on the wall for Feb
Classic cold air damming pattern
ugly wedge pattern, sigh, it’s not gonna be warm enough to enjoy, but not cold enough to have wintry wx, just enough to ruin your day 
Im not buying what the European model is selling for a minute 80 percent of its data was lost so it could be out to lunch even snowbirdbob said this
Tarheelwx
Member
Put a 1034 hp over PA and you get something we haven’t seen all winter.
TW
TW
A week ago this weekends event wasn’t on the map really...and the next 10 days there be cold dumped into the conus so you just never know.
Yeah it wouldn’t shock me if we get another slop event with CAD, it’s been the theme of this winter for sure, really would be nice if the arctic front can pass this living barrier known as the SE and we get a well timed wave with a TPV around the lakes, I’m tired of marginal
SWVAwxfan
Member
As terrible as the models have been. It's too early to punt February. This constant flip flopping back and forth of the models is maddening to say the least.
MichaelJ
Member
Yep, the models seem to be warning us that the cold cold air just can't quite get here. Still plenty of time to change but I do not like the look of the EURO and think we will see either the GFS moving towards it or the EURO totally flipping. If we do go 5-10 below normal around the 1st of March, it is nowhere near as meaningful for us as that difference would mean in Jan/early Feb. As for all these ice events being shown instead of Snow, welcome to La Nina and phase 7 of the MJO
Ultimately I think our best chance for a major storm for the Carolinas and N. GA this year is going to have to involve some CAD. I’ve never bought into the extreme cold for the SE that some models runs have thrown around anymore than I buy into the model runs that are showing huge ridging and all out torch in the east. I do however can imagine a scenario in the next couple weeks with all the energy flying around were we time something well enough to get a decent winter storm for the western 2/3 of the Carolinas. I’ve said it plenty, but one constant that keeps showing and verifying is that
-NAO and -AO. As long as it’s there, don’t expect anything well above average.