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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

GaWx said:
Similar to the Doc trends for the US, yest's 12Z EPS trended much warmer than the coldest run, yest's 0Z, which in itself was way colder than the Thu 12Z run. And then today's 0Z trended much warmer than yest's 12Z. So, in other words, each of the last 2 EPS were much warmer than their respective prior runs. Today's 12Z didn't go all the way back to the very cold 0Z of yest, but it did go back much colder than today's 0Z and even got to a little colder than than yest's 12Z! So, of all of the EPS runs this winter to date, the only colder EPS run than today's 12Z is yest's 0Z for the US as a whole. Also, as said before, today's 12Z GEFS is by a good margin THE coldest run of the winter to date!

Looking ahead, I'd be pleasantly surprised if the 18Z GEFS weren't a good amount warmer than the 12Z since that is the coldest of the winter. I'd consider it a big win if it is only a little warmer than 12Z and still ok if it is only moderately warmer because that's how these things typically swing from run to run. When you have THE coldest run of the winter to date by a sig margin and it has the US just about as cold as it has ever been on record overall, the odds are typically stacked for the next run to be at least somewhat warmer.

Regarding tonight's 0Z EPS vs today's 12Z, that's a tougher call. With today's 12Z being so much colder than today's 0Z, it wouldn't surprise me if tonight's 0Z goes back a little warmer.
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God it's great to have you back :)
 
Ends up laying down some high ratio snow in Tennessee but because of the cold delay there wouldn't be any chance in NC if the precip was there.

Given that this range seems to be unreliable...who knows how long it'd stay that way as well.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Of course right on cue, at day 9 here comes a good synoptic look.

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Yeah we've played this day 10 looks great game for entire winters until finally in March we realize we were led afoul all winter. At this point why or how can we trust the models past day 4.....its a losing strategy nowadays.
 
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