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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

I’ll take my chances with a high ratio event .1-2 inches. I’m all in for the 13th/14th light event . Euro has the same energy it just gets strung out . If it survives it’s a nice light high ratio event with brutal temps. Yes I want a big dog but 2014 I got like 1.5 inches with temps in the 20s and the city was shut down for days



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Well, despite the initial warming, the 18 GFS turned out to be the coldest yet of the winter for the US! I mean this is off the charts insane, idiotic, stupid, criminal cold for the US the next 15 days overall on this run and perhaps about as cold a run as there has ever been for any part of winter!

Now let’s see how 18Z GEFS turns out. It, too, has the common initial warming, but it now looks like the cold may later catch up to the 12Z, the coldest GEFS of the winter to date. As I said, the odds are stacked for the 18Z GEFS to be warmer than 12Z for obvious reasons.
 
Well, despite the initial warming, the 18 GFS turned out to be the coldest yet of the winter for the US! I mean this is off the charts insane, idiotic, stupid, criminal cold for the US the next 25 days overall on this run and perhaps about as cold a run as there has ever been for any part of winter!

Now let’s see how 18Z GEFS turns out. It, too, has the common initial warning, but it now looks like the cold may catch up to the 12Z, the coldest GEFS of the winter to date.
Like I said yesterday, I'm more focused on getting the actual front clearing the coast inside the 5 day mark now. Then I may can bite on a storm because the airmass surely would support it. We're getting marginal close calls with this ---- airmass. But everyday the front is still 180 hrs out that gives me pause that when it finally gets here, and it will, it'll just be more marginal air.
 
Happy Hour GEFS: setting up for a possible CAD storm again for ~2/16-7. Also, although it started out a bit warmer than 12Z, it is making a run at being as cold as the 12Z run for the US as a whole with later days being significantly colder. If it does that, it will have beaten the odds since the 12Z run was the coldest this winter to date. Stay tuned!
 
It turns out that the Happy Hour GEFS against the odds came out colder for the US as a whole than the previously coldest run of the winter, the 12Z!

Highlights:
- BN in SE US 2/13-2/22 (end of run)
- Absolutely mind boggling cold at times Midwest, especially 2/7-8 and 2/12-15, N Rockies 2/8-13, and S Plains 2/14-6!
- Arctic high after Arctic high dropping down from Canada every few days.
- Increasing potential for CAD induced major ZR main CAD areas 2/16-7 with SE at the bottom of the low level cold feed.
 
It turns out that the Happy Hour GEFS against the odds came out colder for the US as a whole than the previously coldest run of the winter, the 12Z!

Highlights:
- BN in SE US 2/13-2/22 (end of run)
- Absolutely mind boggling cold at times Midwest, especially 2/7-8 and 2/12-15, N Rockies 2/8-13, and S Plains 2/14-6!
- Arctic High after Arctic dropping down from Canada every few days.
- Increasing potential for CAD induced major ZR main CAD areas 2/16-7 with SE at the bottom of the low level cold feed.
Could we be entering the next ice age ?
 
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