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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Is there any chance that the models have no idea what’s going on and all that artic air actually does come to the southeast and we are all caught off guard?
 
Really disappointed with tonight's GFS and CMC runs. We're sort of within range to see just how much, and how far east the motherlode of arctic air can push based on the strength and position of that elusive TPV in the Thursday-Friday time frame. Both were rather weak and either too far west or north by 96 hours. Still game on for Alabama west though. Ga. and the Carolina's are looking unlikely for all of this week IMO.
 
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Storm5 said:
What a gradient
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Look at that CAD, too!
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Really disappointed with tonight's GFS and CMC runs. We're sort of within range to see just how much, and how far east the motherlode of arctic air can push based on the strength and position of that elusive TPV in the Thursday-Friday time frame. Both were rather weak and either too far west or north by 96 hours. Still game on for Alabama west though. Ga. and the Carolina's are looking unlikely for all of next week IMO.
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All of THIS week, but far too early to say that for next week. Models don't have a good idea at all about next week yet.
 
Stormlover said:
All of THIS week, but far too early to say that for next week. Models don't have a good idea at all about next week yet.
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Sure the models could be off, but we are within the 3-4 day range and model are still doing a western cold dump. The CMC still never gets the cold front to clear the SE coast, even with the east "trends" . Even the cold bias GFS is delaying the cold front more and more and doesn't the clear the SE coast until the 8 day range and by then, the "cold " would already become very marginal. So yes, unless a major change occur on the models, I think the Carolinas and SE Virginia may be out of the game for all of next week regarding a winter storm/cold (except for typical CAD areas in Central North Carolina/Upstate South Carolina and mountain areas).
 
JLL1973 said:
Ha. CMC gives parts of north ms close to two inches of ice in places. We would be in the dark for days
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CMC is definitely trying to pull a ‘94 on us. What I find concerning is that it has been rather consistent with its output on advertising an ice storm while the GFS and Euro have been all over with solutions.
 
Faco Thomas said:
Sure the models could be off, but we are within the 3-4 day range and model are still doing a western cold dump. The CMC still never gets the cold front to clear the SE coast, even with the east "trends" . Even the cold bias GFS is delaying the cold front more and more and doesn't the clear the SE coast until the 8 day range and by then, the "cold " would already become very marginal. So yes, unless a major change occur on the models, I think the Carolinas and SE Virginia may be out of the game for all of next week regarding a winter storm/cold (except for typical CAD areas in Central North Carolina/Upstate South Carolina and mountain areas).
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Yeah, if you are concerned about THIS week...but it's clear our chance really lies in NEXT week.
 
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