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Pattern June Presented by: Heat and Humidity

They aren't making it to GSP this evening. They've lowered pops to only 30%.

Not that I don't respect GSP but they had us at 30% yesterday and basically had one loan shower over Cabarrus County. We have more forcing and storms to our SE and SW, wouldn't be surprised to see more pop along some outflow boundaries. I can see convection continue to bubble up before sundown.
 
The GEFS is also following suit.

View attachment 42649
Is there something about upper lows that almost always deliver copious precipitation to the western Piedmont, while you have a relative minimum farther east? I have noticed that this happens more times than not. It also happens with snow in the winter time, irrespective of temps. It's like the precipitation is almost always heavier farther west. It happens this way much too frequently to be a coincidence.
 
Is there something about upper lows that almost always deliver copious precipitation to the western Piedmont, while you have a relative minimum farther east? I have noticed that this happens more times than not. It also happens with snow in the winter time, irrespective of temps. It's like the precipitation is almost always heavier farther west. It happens this way much too frequently to be a coincidence.

To get copious amounts of precipitation w/ an upper low, it usually needs to pass to your west or south placing you in the warm, moist conveyor belt. This typically puts areas of the far western piedmont at a massive advantage because deep layer easterly flow creates orographic lift and isentropic upglide via CAD as the basic state flow undergoes geostrophic adjustment due to easterly winds impinging upon the Apps
 
Glad we had clouds and fog this morning only thing that kept us from hitting 150 today

We sure can over-perform in the heat department but never in the cold one.


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Not that I don't respect GSP but they had us at 30% yesterday and basically had one loan shower over Cabarrus County. We have more forcing and storms to our SE and SW, wouldn't be surprised to see more pop along some outflow boundaries. I can see convection continue to bubble up before sundown.
They do seem a little off these days. It could be the models though since they are missing a lot of info due to the virus.
 
They do seem a little off these days. It could be the models though since they are missing a lot of info due to the virus.

I still think it's partially due to lack commercial air traffic. Since they collect data as they fly. It's not their fault. And it is a little more difficult to pinpoint summertime convection. So many things come into play, i.e. outflows, troughs, and other upper-level features.
 
To get copious amounts of precipitation w/ an upper low, it usually needs to pass to your west or south placing you in the warm, moist conveyor belt. This typically puts areas of the far western piedmont at a massive advantage because deep layer easterly flow creates orographic lift and isentropic upglide via CAD as the basic state flow undergoes geostrophic adjustment due to easterly winds impinging upon the Apps
Thanks! I assumed there was an orographic component, but it seems like the track of these seem to favor western areas. Probably has to do with the mountains. Anyway, thanks for the explanation.
 
Ofc a actual thunderstorm with lightning blows up to my East, ever since I got that camera I’ve had terrible luck with close storms, very very frustrating 5A69FE06-C75F-475A-BBC4-C9A4DF619BE2.jpeg
 
Kinda have hope for those SC storms to survive into CLT, better SBcape axis farther east, although CIN should start becoming a issue soon AF4432F8-CDB5-409F-984A-F62E57C4D30C.jpegE07D7278-9567-4478-8E7A-7636714D2B9F.png
 
Kinda have hope for those SC storms to survive into CLT, better SBcape axis farther east, although CIN should start becoming a issue soon View attachment 42668View attachment 42669

Yeah, I've been watching those too. I'd give it a 50/50 chance of making it here. IF we can get some outflows, we might be able to spark some new development before sundown. And even then, I would not be shocked to see a few cells continue after 9. It's insanely humid and CAPE is conducive for some additional development.
 
The band in upstate SC is falling apart. Another busted GSP forecast. Look for tomorrow to be dry too.
 
The band in upstate SC is falling apart. Another busted GSP forecast. Look for tomorrow to be dry too.

Now you're just being pessimistic for no reason. If anything, tomorrow and Thursday offer the best chances for organized convection.
 
The band in upstate SC is falling apart. Another busted GSP forecast. Look for tomorrow to be dry too.
This don’t help, el temps/cape sucks there and improves East ABC5CFC8-B459-4CD3-BE1C-676D6B05221D.jpeg
lots of dcape out there, no wonder there’s several OFBs 986404FA-9792-4B71-9E59-337E6440339E.jpeg
 
Now you're just being pessimistic for no reason. If anything, tomorrow and Thursday offer the best chances for organized convection.
I'm right. 2 days out it looked as if we would get 2-3 inches of rain here from Bertha. The result was that we did not get 1 single drop. Late last week looked ok but did not get 1 drop. Once this start here it takes a major event for us to get rain and this week does not cut it.
 
The storms have been going from Charlotte to Fayetteville all spring and summer.
 
Those updrafts in SC developing with the OFB are quite puny, not tall enough to produce lightning/thunder
 
Of course they do. York and Chester counties along with the Charlotte metro never miss.
 
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