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Pattern June Presented by: Heat and Humidity

They aren't making it to GSP this evening. They've lowered pops to only 30%.

Not that I don't respect GSP but they had us at 30% yesterday and basically had one loan shower over Cabarrus County. We have more forcing and storms to our SE and SW, wouldn't be surprised to see more pop along some outflow boundaries. I can see convection continue to bubble up before sundown.
 
The GEFS is also following suit.

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Is there something about upper lows that almost always deliver copious precipitation to the western Piedmont, while you have a relative minimum farther east? I have noticed that this happens more times than not. It also happens with snow in the winter time, irrespective of temps. It's like the precipitation is almost always heavier farther west. It happens this way much too frequently to be a coincidence.
 
Is there something about upper lows that almost always deliver copious precipitation to the western Piedmont, while you have a relative minimum farther east? I have noticed that this happens more times than not. It also happens with snow in the winter time, irrespective of temps. It's like the precipitation is almost always heavier farther west. It happens this way much too frequently to be a coincidence.

To get copious amounts of precipitation w/ an upper low, it usually needs to pass to your west or south placing you in the warm, moist conveyor belt. This typically puts areas of the far western piedmont at a massive advantage because deep layer easterly flow creates orographic lift and isentropic upglide via CAD as the basic state flow undergoes geostrophic adjustment due to easterly winds impinging upon the Apps
 
Glad we had clouds and fog this morning only thing that kept us from hitting 150 today

We sure can over-perform in the heat department but never in the cold one.


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Not that I don't respect GSP but they had us at 30% yesterday and basically had one loan shower over Cabarrus County. We have more forcing and storms to our SE and SW, wouldn't be surprised to see more pop along some outflow boundaries. I can see convection continue to bubble up before sundown.
They do seem a little off these days. It could be the models though since they are missing a lot of info due to the virus.
 
They do seem a little off these days. It could be the models though since they are missing a lot of info due to the virus.

I still think it's partially due to lack commercial air traffic. Since they collect data as they fly. It's not their fault. And it is a little more difficult to pinpoint summertime convection. So many things come into play, i.e. outflows, troughs, and other upper-level features.
 
To get copious amounts of precipitation w/ an upper low, it usually needs to pass to your west or south placing you in the warm, moist conveyor belt. This typically puts areas of the far western piedmont at a massive advantage because deep layer easterly flow creates orographic lift and isentropic upglide via CAD as the basic state flow undergoes geostrophic adjustment due to easterly winds impinging upon the Apps
Thanks! I assumed there was an orographic component, but it seems like the track of these seem to favor western areas. Probably has to do with the mountains. Anyway, thanks for the explanation.
 
Ofc a actual thunderstorm with lightning blows up to my East, ever since I got that camera I’ve had terrible luck with close storms, very very frustrating 5A69FE06-C75F-475A-BBC4-C9A4DF619BE2.jpeg
 
Kinda have hope for those SC storms to survive into CLT, better SBcape axis farther east, although CIN should start becoming a issue soon AF4432F8-CDB5-409F-984A-F62E57C4D30C.jpegE07D7278-9567-4478-8E7A-7636714D2B9F.png
 
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