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Pattern June 2024

@Shaggy I feel your pain.. It "looked" gnarly on radar, though "Ground truth", is/was quite different, I mighta got a tenth, or a eighth of rain Drops & quick downpour.. LOTSA lighting though.. Wowzers! ⛈⚡⚡⚡⚡
@Shaggy, hopefully you might get alil more sum sum coming for Round 2 on Gaydar, your way..
 
SENC said:
@Shaggy I feel your pain.. It "looked" gnarly on radar, though "Ground truth", is/was quite different, I mighta got a tenth, or a eighth of rain Drops & quick downpour.. LOTSA lighting though.. Wowzers! ⛈⚡⚡⚡⚡
@Shaggy, hopefully you might get alil more sum sum coming for Round 2 on Gaydar, your way..
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Horrible day for my backyard
 

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18z GFS says rain chances for central NC northward not great (..spotty hits) for this weekend. But we'll get to enjoy some desert like dew points and surface temps for early next week.

surface temps for very early Tuesday morning:
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It looks like Sunday will be the best chance of widespread rain which is badly needed in Central North Carolina. The RDU office is giving us a 70% chance now. Today certainly was disappointing for most of us. At least there are chances for pop up thunderstorms Friday and Saturday if the Sunday event does not materialize.

 
weather bubba said:
It looks like Sunday will be the best chance of widespread rain which is badly needed in Central North Carolina. The RDU office is giving us a 70% chance now. Today certainly was disappointing for most of us. At least there are chances for pop up thunderstorms Friday and Saturday if the Sunday event does not materialize.

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I sure hope so. Right now, I'll believe it when it happens. I posted the latest GFS run for this weekend's totals, but here is the 12z Euro:
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Has similarities with the GFS.
 
FallsLake said:
I sure hope so. Right now, I'll believe it when it happens. I posted the latest GFS run for this weekend's totals, but here is the 12z Euro:
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Has similarities with the GFS.
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Sunday should be such an easy slam dunk for a solid line of storms and a widespread 1-2 inches of rain. This setup though has a tendency to leak the prefrontal trough to our east through composite outflows or differential heating. I'm worried we see a copy/paste of today but if we can get the storm initiation to out west with pwats of 2.5, highs in the mid 90s, dews in the mid 70s storms should be efficient rain producers
 
On and off dollar general brand rain the entire length of North Carolina as we drove towards Kitty Hawk today. Overcast mostly. It’s like it wanted to rain but it couldn’t. We in trouble.
 
At least there were some legitimate storms around the area yesterday. I'm around .75" for the month, which was way back.
 
Already popping here.

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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Shaggy said:
One of the strongest thunderstorms I ever witnessed happened July 1st 2012
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I remember that evening well. I had a high of 104 that day with a max heat index of 118. You could just see that line of storms developing on radar just east of the mountains and knew it was just gonna blow up
 
Chazwin said:
I remember that evening well. I had a high of 104 that day with a max heat index of 118. You could just see that line of storms developing on radar just east of the mountains and knew it was just gonna blow up
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That was a crazy day for sure. I remember looking at the radar around 6pm and thinking that we would stay dry. Then by 7pm storms were everywhere and were severe. I think we had at least 3 outflow boundaries come together over the Spartanburg, Gaffney, and Union area.
 
JHS said:
That was a crazy day for sure. I remember looking at the radar around 6pm and thinking that we would stay dry. Then by 7pm storms were everywhere and were severe. I think we had at least 3 outflow boundaries come together over the Spartanburg, Gaffney, and Union area.
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Over this way, we had two outflow boundaries come together just to my west near Charlotte, and then the outflow from that came together with the sea breeze front that had held together
 
The 18z GFS is another step back for rain and the long range looks a little warmer too. Hopefully we do not go back to the way things looked a couple of days ago for late next week into the weekend on that model. Many of us would see 100-105 if that happened. 850 temps had been as high as 28C on one run, with widespread 26-27C. Now showing 20C up to around 23C for that time period.
 
Metwannabe said:
Sunday seems more hit and miss than I had hoped. Winners and lovers as usual, hopefully pattern breaks down soon
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I think that's because the trough that is going to come through will arrive later than first anticipated and whatever develops will not have the heat of the day to work with. Precipitation chances have also been delayed from Saturday into Sunday to Sunday into Monday now. There will be plenty of moisture for this trough to work with so hopefully many of us will get some of the rain we need. My front lawn is the brownest I remember seeing it in recent memory and my garden is pretty much toast for the time being. Some of the tree limbs on the Mulberry tree in my backyard are starting to die.
 
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