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Pattern June 2024

SD said:
We can all suck together
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J.C. said:
I actually emailed our local NWS (FFC) and asked them how they justified the KATL weather stations jumping around between the hours of 1 and 4PM as much as 5 or 7 degrees in the matter of minutes. My $300 tempest performs better then their sorry excuse of a weather station. Averages were 2-4 degrees higher then the immediate reporting stations in the vicinity. They throw out some basic basic excuses, and when you don't buy it, they get less responsive. I also emailed one of our local mets who is now retired, a huge GW pusher, and he didn't like me pointing it out either. I've gone through all the ten year averages at our local reporting stations, and its only the main airport stations show significant increases. KPDK was actually cooler some months in the latest 30 year averages, and it should actually be warmer as it is a more urban environment then KATL.

I also sent a pretty lengthy email to the agency that puts out the hardiness zone map asking for specific criteria as to why my zone in particular went from 7b to 8a.


"I live in norther Georgia, specifically Cobb County. What was the data used to move our area from 7B to 8A? Specifically which reporting stations? The reason I ask is NOAA is not reliable in our area, and the main reporting stations at the regional airports have become exceptionally egregious with overall temperatures, specifically overnight lows. It has gotten so bad now that I can’t help wonder why it isn’t investigated. The station at KATL (Hartsfield Jackson) is now averaging around 3 degrees warmer then KPDK, both deeply embedded in the same urban heat island less than 20 miles apart and similar elevation. My area is now in region 8A, 10-15F, what is the criteria for that? Is it a percentage of years within a ten year period of having lows that reach that range? From 2014-2023 the closest reporting station that FCC actually provides access to (Dallas, GA www.weather.gov) was 9 degrees or less 12 times in 5 of those 10 years, or winter seasons. Maybe I’m just not understanding the methodology of how the zones are actually determined. The two reasons I’m inquiring about this is: where is the data coming from, and what is the criteria for putting certain areas in temperature zones? It must be some sort of average, because obviously it isn’t determinative."

No response, of course.
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Meanwhile I’ve had to grow more cold hardy winter vegetables since the cold has gotten them the last two years. But my hardiness zone went to 8a as well. #agenda
 
EmersonGA said:
Meanwhile I’ve had to grow more cold hardy winter vegetables since the cold has gotten them the last two years. But my hardiness zone went to 8a as well. #agenda
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Lol, come on you guys. Those hardiness zones are based on average coldest temperature, not records. There's no agenda, they are what they are, and they are meant as a helpful guide for planters. It sounds like you were planting vegetables that were risky for your zone, you just got away with it for years.
 
weatherfide said:
Generally cut 4 to 5 degrees is usually good. KFFC mentioned in their recent AFD that the globals were coming in too hot and even the NBM was too hot.
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Yeah, what I'm finding the fatal flaw of the GFS's ridiculously high temps is how it mixes out the boundary layer... IE, dropping dewpoints/RH's value ridiculously low. Probably also assuming the ground is baked as well.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
CAE and FLO both reached 101 today, RDU and CLT 97. GSP 95. Mtns were the place to be, AVL only reaching 87.
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Florence never fully mixed out, Columbia has some mix out with the dewpoints in the mid 60s.

Charleston still managed 97° today despite being mostly cloudy to cloudy during the morning hours. He'll, even with cloudy skies with filtered sun, it still went to 91 by 11am...
 
weatherfide said:
Generally cut 4 to 5 degrees is usually good. KFFC mentioned in their recent AFD that the globals were coming in too hot and even the NBM was too hot.
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Stormsfury said:
Yeah, what I'm finding the fatal flaw of the GFS's ridiculously high temps is how it mixes out the boundary layer... IE, dropping dewpoints/RH's value ridiculously low. Probably also assuming the ground is baked as well.
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I agree. The GFS from just 2 days earlier had these 2m temperature progs as of 18Z (2PM EDT) today:

IMG_9809.png

What verified? In SC, the 2PM temperatures are here:

RWR from KCAE

kamala.cod.edu

So, the SC 2PM temperatures included: CAE 96 vs GFS’ 102 and FLO 94 vs GFS’ 102. All 2PM actuals of major stations were 91-97 vs GFS range of 95-102. The GFS averaged ~5 too hot on a run from just 48 hours earlier.

In GA, the 2PM temperatures are here:

RWR from KFFC

kamala.cod.edu

So, the GA 2PM temperatures included ATL 93 vs GFS’ 97, AGS 95 vs GFS’ 99, and SSI 95 vs GFS’ 100. Hottest in GA at major stations was 97 vs GFS’ hottest of 101. So, the GFS averaged ~4-5 too hot from just 48 hours earlier.

I can also verify that GFS progged dewpoints were too low. The GFS from just 2 days earlier had these dewpoint progs as of 18Z (2PM EDT) today:

IMG_9810.png

The actual 2PM dewpoints were these: CAE 68 vs GFS’ 61, FLO 72 vs GFS’ 65, ATL 64 vs GFS’ 54, and AGS 71 vs GFS’ 60. So, dewpoints were 7-11 too low.

This combo of too hot temperatures and too low dewpoints on sunny summer afternoons is very common on the GFS in the short term.
 
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