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Pattern July

Here's the Map for GSP Similar deal to GSO Cool down on the 23. Gradual Increase staying near 90. Then a potential false hope in August
(edit: fixed date mistake)
model analysis GSP.PNG
 
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SD said:
Euro says we get nothing over the next 10 days too. So much for that widespread rain
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It’s ok. I got crushed last night
 
Nothing like storms firing at high noon hour on hottest day of year. On And off most afternoon and clouds hung tough. Not even sure we hit 90 today. Probably want be so lucky tommorow.
 
Needa watch Tuesday with that front drifting in, could offer a chance for severe thunderstorms, even a low tornado threat due to a increase in low level shear/Somewhat large low level hodos, but damaging winds associated with a QLCS would appear more likely 500B8067-D6FD-4202-A145-DB790FB9C0D2.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Needa watch Tuesday with that front drifting in, could offer a chance for severe thunderstorms, even a low tornado threat due to a increase in low level shear/Somewhat large low level hodos, but damaging winds associated with a QLCS would appear more likely View attachment 21208
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You could make a case for a decent severe weather event if the front is delayed until around peak heating. The 0z euro slowed the timing a bit vs the 12z with things getting into the area around 18z so there is a decent amount of convection firing along an E of US1.

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Heat index along I-95 corridor already upper 90's, 110 at least today

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metwannabe said:
Heat index along I-95 corridor already upper 90's, 110 at least today

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It's warming up quickly. Playing golf today so I got up around 545 and it was actually decent out, on 12 now and I want to die

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SD said:
It's warming up quickly. Playing golf today so I got up around 545 and it was actually decent out, on 12 now and I want to die

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Early wasn't bad at all, there is a little more breeze today, almost tolerable.....

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SD said:
I'm expecting highs so low I need a jacket

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Speaking of jackets, I bet folks in the mountains gonna need something to cover those arms with temps dipping in the 40s
 
Temperatures are approaching 100F all over eastern New York, just incredible. Makes me appreciate 87F.
 
If we all don’t score Tuesday, it could be August before we see rain again!??
 
The NWS forecast high of 77 Tuesday is sure gonna feel nice coming off this heatwave. This summer reminds me of some in the not to distant past heading into La nina
 
Peaked at 100.5 today, ready for some relief

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If Dallas doesn't hit 100 tomorrow ahead of the front then we will likely get through July without one day which is almost unheard of

I'm heading to the beach in Galveston Tuesday and even down there they get a decent front
 
RPM model showing 1.72” of rain Tuesday ! Giddy up!
 
SD said:
0.00

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With the timing of the front tomorrow, y’all should have plenty of instability, and best shot at severe. The front is going to slowly push through, according to NWS, so we all might have a good shot at rain tomorrow!
 
Heat advisory just issued for today, 10th day in a row and will be glad to see it end tomorrow.... what a stretch of humidity!
 
Moderate Risk out north-east TN and South West Virginia for flooding today. If this expands into Wilkes expect a thread with little to no warning.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Moderate Risk out north-east TN and South West Virginia for flooding today. If this expands into Wilkes expect a thread with little to no warning.
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There's already a summer severe thread. Feel free to post your heart out on there but there's nothing at the current moment that warrants a new thread

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Looks stormy tomorrow as the cold front passes. Does not look to be a big severe threat but definitely some rain maybe even for the GSP area
NAMNSTMA_prec_radar_033.png2019072212_NAMNST_033_35.9,-79.45_severe_ml.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
Looks stormy tomorrow as the cold front passes. Does not look to be a big severe threat but definitely some rain maybe even for the GSP area
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Yeah, the severe threat would be more confined to NC, 15-20kts of 0-3km shear/somewhat curved llvl hodo, and 25-35 kts of 500mb flow may allow organized convection as in more organized multicellular clusters, and perhaps a isolated transient supercell with a weak rotating mid level mesocyclone, damaging winds would be a bigger threat due to more organized convection, some BL mixing, dry air aloft but high PWATs, and wind profiles are supportive of linear convection anyways, not nothing crazy tho just your average weak/stalling front that manages to make it into a summertime airmass, and a good rain for most 166CA4E6-E5C2-4B33-97C7-04A446B9CDFD.jpegA0A187A7-990C-4029-9BF9-CAC18DFE3ADB.png
 
Yeah, looks pretty stormy around here tomorrow. Then the rest of the week looks awesome with highs in the 80s. Going to another concert Friday night in Raleigh and it looks like great weather for the parking lot party beforehand.
 
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