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Pattern July

I would watch the activity in east TN could pose a flood threat where the ground is saturated (Boone, Wilkes, Surry).
 
JHS said:
I knew we would miss when it got cloudy this morning. What you see now over upstate SC is all that will be here all evening long. I'm not liking our chances for rain for the next week to 10 days in this area.
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Cloud cover didn’t do to much, until around the lower upstate where there’s still some MLCIN and lower MLcape, but SB cape is ranging from 2000-3000 jkg in the upstate, had cloud cover here for a good amount of time, still managed 3000 jkg of SBcape, large boundary layer moisture combined with high PWATs is allowing large cape even with Garbo lapse rates, column is a soaked sponge with deep warm cloud layers and large saturation
 
JHS said:
I knew we would miss when it got cloudy this morning. What you see now over upstate SC is all that will be here all evening long. I'm not liking our chances for rain for the next week to 10 days in this area.
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That's the way we do it around here. Out of 10 days of high rain chances we're guaranteed to whiff 8 of those days.
 
Id love for a TD to meander along the SE for a few days. In spite of widespread coverage of storms the other day, there are still many localities that didn't get the ratios/amounts that were needed for quality grass/landscaping. Reservoirs/Lakes are probably doing okay though.
 
Everybody keep @SD away from the 3k NAM! He doesn't need to see it.
 
And I don't care what you say, the new GFS is awesome to look at. I can't wait for the 40" snow maps this winter! And speaking of winter, I'm going +3 - +5F for most of the SE this year, with normal snow across the north and west to much below normal snow south and east. Plains and Midwest, into the Lakes and NE will be -3 - -1F and will jackpot snow, again. No reason at all to go anywhere remotely against persistence.

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Rain Cold said:
And I don't care what you say, the new GFS is awesome to look at. I can't wait for the 40" snow maps this winter! And speaking of winter, I'm going +3 - +5F for most of the SE this year, with normal snow across the north and west to much below normal snow south and east. Plains and Midwest, into the Lakes and NE will be -3 - -1F and will jackpot snow, again. No reason at all to go anywhere remotely against persistence.

View attachment 20851
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You might be low.

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Avalanche said:
Id love for a TD to meander along the SE for a few days. In spite of widespread coverage of storms the other day, there are still many localities that didn't get the ratios/amounts that were needed for quality grass/landscaping. Reservoirs/Lakes are probably doing okay though.
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You're right about that. A lot of areas recieved good rains and at my location we had light rain for maybe 30 minutes once. It's very dry.
 
More heavy storms today says widespread but I think Wilkes and north/west with less Statesville east.
 
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