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July Surprise!

That literally does nothing for me. ?

Could leave a boundary tho on Saturday over clt/you which May locally enhance shear and create a nice environment for multicells with organization, gfs has been on this one for a while now, I see a lot of areas Saturday scoring unless a ofb from Friday’s storms completely moves through our areas D6D8641B-1694-4389-A834-87A47380B1E0.pngB477AFB6-1498-4FAD-890D-22F7CD359A1E.png
 
Nam looked good....if you like dry hot weather

My yard is on the cusp of going the death route. I got lucky with a shot of rain last week but that .25 is long gone now. After this week in the 90s and no rain its gonna be ugly by the weekend. I need to get lucky Saturday through Monday when we run those 40% chances.
 

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LOL. There have been at least two tornado warnings near Buffalo. Meanwhile, we can't even manage to get organized convection, of any kind.
 
I'm not gonna lie this looks mildly interesting. A pretty formidable mesoscale convective vortex moving over the northern Gulf in the middle of the hurricane season with 36 hours over water & somewhat favorable shear? There's literally nothing else to talk about in the tropics and since it's also so close to land I guess it may be worth looking at.

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27 hr GFS 700mb vorticity forecast.

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This thing has a surprisingly deep warm core on the GFS. What you’re seeing the yellow and orange shading is low-mid level potential vorticity tower that’s being generated by latent heating from persistent, deep convection and it is one of the easiest to identify, distinguishing characteristics of warm core low pressure systems over wintertime mid latitude cyclones. More intense tropical cyclones usually will have deeper, stronger, & more laterally extensive PV towers. Cross sections like this can this tell you a lot and it’s also a pretty neat way to diagnose deep layer wind shear (the PV tower will tilt due to shear).

This is definitely a plot we will have to revisit at some point later in the hurricane season


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While I was observing comet Neowise earlier I could faintly see flashes of lightning come from that same storm all the way down at Jordan Lake! I'm fairly certain that we were both looking at the same storm since I was facing NW and there's nothing else on the radar. That's a good ~200 miles we're talking about!
Wow that’s impressive, that storm was nearly 60kft at one point tho so it was definitely tall
 

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