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July Fry 2021

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Shaggy said:
Had a low of 77 last night. That sucks
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We are about to the point where I'm over summer. At least we have rain chances and a front over the weekend into next week and then if we are lucky another one in about 10 days.

Minus the PNW Hotspot by d10 the eps has most of the significant heat gone nationwide
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SD said:
We are about to the point where I'm over summer. At least we have rain chances and a front over the weekend into next week and then if we are lucky another one in about 10 days.

Minus the PNW Hotspot by d10 the eps has most of the significant heat gone nationwide
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Yeah I'm done too. It hasn't been as bad as other summers but this week has been pretty rough.
 
BHS1975 said:
db2b54da104697c90a0277f644d5b62b.jpg



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I'm going to play Mr negative here and say as modeled I bet that dies on our doorstep but it's close to being the first mountains to coast storm complex in ages.

This setup is very similar to Wednesday where the storms ran out of gas. Main trough and energy displaced north and moving away we would need a decent cold pool to develop on the backside to maybe aid in maintaining as it goes east.
 
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SD said:
I'm going to play Mr negative here and say as modeled I bet that dies on our doorstep but it's close to being the first mountains to coast storm complex in ages
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I was going to say same thing, bet there's an OFB that kills it just as you say on our doorstep
 
SD said:
We are about to the point where I'm over summer. At least we have rain chances and a front over the weekend into next week and then if we are lucky another one in about 10 days.

Minus the PNW Hotspot by d10 the eps has most of the significant heat gone nationwide
View attachment 86620
Click to expand...

I'm usually done around the 4th, but i'm hanging tough this year. I'm enjoying the feeling of the sun on me every day and just not being cold.
 
metwannabe said:
I was going to say same thing, bet there's an OFB that kills it just as you say on our doorstep
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Yeah I added to my post a little above. The lack of a lot of stratiform on the backside and the energy racing away makes it very similar to Wednesday. As we know though these typically arrive earlier than models have and have typically been a little more impressive than modeled. We will see but the ofb signature out front on the 3k makes me think it runs out of gas
 
SD said:
The fv3 hires has been really good so far better than the hrrr and 3k. I thought it was going to be a giant turd
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It’s depiction totally makes sense and the most with scattered stuff forming in the Piedmont first (which the hrrr/3km normally miss) then the stuff moving east from the mountains
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s depiction totally makes sense and the most with scattered stuff forming in the Piedmont first (which the hrrr/3km normally miss) then the stuff moving east from the mountains
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Yeah it's done well picking up on the local mesoscale stuff like the sandhills convection and piedmont trough but I think it struggles with the seabreeze.

Nvm this is the 0z for this afternoon Seabreeze activate
fv3-hires_ref_frzn_seus_22.png
 
SD said:
I'm going to play Mr negative here and say as modeled I bet that dies on our doorstep but it's close to being the first mountains to coast storm complex in ages.

This setup is very similar to Wednesday where the storms ran out of gas. Main trough and energy displaced north and moving away we would need a decent cold pool to develop on the backside to maybe aid in maintaining as it goes east.
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I dont know this One at least has my eye as models with the last one didn’t even try to let it get this far … for tomorrow they have it at least going through us although I can see the weird set up and with it being later at night has me curious about its survival as well… I’ll be the advocate and push for this to make it into our neck of the woods Shane!
 
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