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July Fry 2021

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GaWx said:
KATL has had only 6 90+ YTD and is projected to be at no more than 6-8 YTD through 7/17 thanks to plentiful PM convection. That compares to the 30 yr avg of 21. Still no SE heatwave in sight with only a small chance the rest of summer.
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Im sure when the dry season begins in a little over a month Atlanta will warm up. Unless of course the tropics bring a lot of moisture. I've noticed that around Mid August the number of afternoon storms diminish pretty quickly so from there onwards you depend on tropical systems for rain.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Im sure when the dry season begins in a little over a month Atlanta will warm up. Unless of course the tropics bring a lot of moisture. I've noticed that around Mid August the number of afternoon storms diminish pretty quickly so from there onwards you depend on tropical systems for rain.
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The number afternoon storms do typically diminish around mid to late August for a lot of the southeast, however, and I mean this comparing to June and early July, the days start becoming noticeably shorter. Typically years that have intense heat waves from mid-August onward, usually had several intense heat waves earlier in the summer as it was just an extension of the overall summer pattern that year…. 2007, 2018, and 2019 are some recent examples
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Im sure when the dry season begins in a little over a month Atlanta will warm up. Unless of course the tropics bring a lot of moisture. I've noticed that around Mid August the number of afternoon storms diminish pretty quickly so from there onwards you depend on tropical systems for rain.
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We just finished with our dry season usually pre summer we dry up but we got lucky with some tropical activity and persistent troughs .. during the second “dry” period you’re speaking of is usually when tropics ramp up and something tells me the SE won’t escape this season but of course we will never know till the time comes … for now we rejoice with afternoon convection and seasonal temperatures as our luck streak continues and doesn’t seem to want to end any time soon
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Im sure when the dry season begins in a little over a month Atlanta will warm up. Unless of course the tropics bring a lot of moisture. I've noticed that around Mid August the number of afternoon storms diminish pretty quickly so from there onwards you depend on tropical systems for rain.
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Atlanta averages 3.91 in August so most of that must be in the first two weeks
 
Bham 99 said:
Atlanta averages 3.91 in August so most of that must be in the first two weeks
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Yeah the dry season starts imo around August 15 and lasts til about November 15. 3 solid months of dry weather. During this 3 month period you either get moisture from the tropics or you get nothing. Fronts usually don't bring a lot of rain until mid to late November. There have been Sept and Oct where I didn't see a drop of rain the entire month.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Yeah the dry season starts imo around August 15 and lasts til about November 15. 3 solid months of dry weather. During this 3 month period you either get moisture from the tropics or you get nothing. Fronts usually don't bring a lot of rain until mid to late November. There have been Sept and Oct where I didn't see a drop of rain the entire month.
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Are you moving back to GA?
 
Bham 99 said:
No offense to my Georgia peeps but I don't want to move back to Georgia ever unless it was like Saint Simons Island
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The only part of GA I like are the mountains and coast. I don't like Atlanta because too much traffic and most of South GA sucks. I wish GA had a better balance of cities like NC. NC is superior to GA in almost every way. FL is better also.
 
I'm not sure I'd call anything in Atlanta's climate periods dry, even August through October Atlanta averages 11.4 inches of rain. October is the lowest month at 3.28 versus the highest in July at 4.75. That isn't much of a spread.
 
J.C. said:
I'm not sure I'd call anything in Atlanta's climate periods dry, even August through October Atlanta averages 11.4 inches of rain. October is the lowest month at 3.28 versus the highest in July at 4.75. That isn't much of a spread.
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It's feast or famine in Sept and Oct. You either get 15" of rain or nothing. Very little in between. All depends on the tropics. If it weren't for tropical activity I'm sure the Oct avg would be less than 1".
 
KATL has had only six 90 days YTD. They're projected to have no more than ~7-9 90+ through 7/17, with no major heat or dry period through 7/24 per model consensus. That means KATL will have a decent chance to not exceed 12 90+ YTD through July 31. I thought it would be fun to speculate on what it would mean based on climo (records back to 1879) for Aug-Oct 90+ if KATL were to not exceed 12 90+ through July:

- 37 years back to 1879 with 12 or fewer 90+ through July
- Not even a single one of these 37 exceeded 13 90+ Aug-Oct
- The average of these 37 was only 7 90+ for Aug-Oct, which is a mere half of the average of 14 for all years
- So, not even one of the 37 even hit the average of 14
- The average for the other 105 years is ~16.5, well over double the 37 years with 12 or fewer 90+ through July

What about the hottest day in Aug-Oct?
- For the 37 years with 12 or fewer 90+ through July, the average hottest day in Aug-Oct was only 92.4 vs the average hottest Aug-Oct day for the other 105 years of 95+.
- For all 37 years, the hottest day in Aug-Oct was 97 (that was in 1927) with only 5 of the 37 years having the hottest day of 95+ and 26 of the 37 having the hottest Aug-Oct day of 93 or lower.

So, the climo implications of the number of 90+ highs at KATL staying low through July are huge for Aug-Oct as far as the relative lack of intense heat is concerned. That is largely because the relatively moist soil conditions that keep heat in check through July normally persist beyond July. So, I'll be quite curious to see where KATL ends up as of 7/31.
 
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NickyBGuarantee said:
Ur even more crazy than a bird lizard mix ??
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GaWx said:
"Hot" off the press from Don Sutherland:

"Lytton, BC: 46.1C/115F. New national record for Canada".
Old Canada record 113 84 years ago. That 115 probably isn't yet to their high of the day, and it may get even hotter Mon and/or Tue there! This is insane! Their old all-time record was 112.
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GaWx said:
KATL has had only six 90 days YTD. They're projected to have no more than ~7-9 90+ through 7/17, with no major heat or dry period through 7/24 per model consensus. That means KATL will have a decent chance to not exceed 12 90+ YTD through July 31. I thought it would be fun to speculate on what it would mean based on climo (records back to 1879) for Aug-Oct 90+ if KATL were to not exceed 12 90+ through July:

- 37 years back to 1879 with 12 or fewer 90+ through July
- Not even a single one of these 37 exceeded 13 90+ Aug-Oct
- The average of these 37 was only 7 90+ for Aug-Oct, which is a mere half of the average of 14 for all years
- So, not even one of the 37 even hit the average of 14
- The average for the other 105 years is ~16.5, well over double the 37 years with 12 or fewer 90+ through July

What about the hottest day in Aug-Oct?
- For the 37 years with 12 or fewer 90+ through July, the average hottest day in Aug-Oct was only 92.4 vs the average hottest Aug-Oct day for the other 105 years of 95+.
- For all 37 years, the hottest day in Aug-Oct was 97 (that was in 1927) with only 5 of the 37 years having the hottest day of 95+ and 26 of the 37 having the hottest Aug-Oct day of 93 or lower.

So, the climo implications of the number of 90+ highs at KATL staying low through July are huge for Aug-Oct as far as the relative lack of intense heat is concerned. That is largely because the relatively moist soil conditions that keep heat in check through July normally persist beyond July. So, I'll be quite curious to see where KATL ends up as of 7/31.
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What is so impressive is the fact that there are 37 years where KATL has had 12 or fewer days at or above 90 through July since 1879. I wonder what the winter months were like following those 37 summers.
 
J.C. said:
What is so impressive is the fact that there are 37 years where KATL has had 12 or fewer days at or above 90 through July since 1879. I wonder what the winter months were like following those 37 summers.
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I was about to say that too. That really shocked me it was so many.
 
J.C. said:
What is so impressive is the fact that there are 37 years where KATL has had 12 or fewer days at or above 90 through July since 1879. I wonder what the winter months were like following those 37 summers.
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Great Q! I may check this if I get a chance but I need time. I'm curious myself. Because this is largely soil moisture related, I don't know that the trend would go all the way through the subsequent winter.
 
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