• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

July Fry 2021

smast16

Member
Joined
Sep 27, 2019
Messages
2,107
Reaction score
5,267
Location
Kernersville
Gfs which is notoriously high at 2m in the extended is hot
View attachment 86888
But it's dirty on the eastern side of the ridge and maybe a little stronger with the trough off the NE
View attachment 86889

Better convective chance and potential debris clouds = not as hot
but i thought the GFS always corrects and inches away from really hot temps?

I would like a good Ridge Rider once this summer though. Those are some of the best.
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
19,161
Reaction score
46,055
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
but i thought the GFS always corrects and inches away from really hot temps?

I would like a good Ridge Rider once this summer though. Those are some of the best.
It's typically too hot in the extended. I know there was some issue with soil type and the feedback on 2m temps but that seems to have been corrected some in recent upgrades. It's not showing 110 everyday like it did a few years ago but it still loves to show right around 100 as you get away from D0
 

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
10,288
Reaction score
23,561
Location
SAV, GA
Everyone's "favorite" lol, the all-knowing Maxar, says in this morning's 15 day forecast that these are the hottest days for selected cities as the SE is hotter today:

KATL: 95 on 8/2
KRDU: 95 on 7/31 and 8/4
Memphis: 97 on 7/31 and 8/2
KDFW: 101 on 7/25-8, 8/1-2

Anyone want to do an over or under vs these forecasts for the hottest during the period through 8/4?
 

Tarheel1

I ❤️ BBW’s
Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2016
Messages
11,359
Reaction score
15,284
Location
Dubuque, IA
Gfs which is notoriously high at 2m in the extended is hot
View attachment 86888
But it's dirty on the eastern side of the ridge and maybe a little stronger with the trough off the NE
View attachment 86889

Better convective chance and potential debris clouds = not as hot
Lol! They're saying the fry zones are in the Plains. Midwest, and Pac NW with the SE, NE, and far SW the least likely to fry though the next two weeks. They have KATL's hottest near 93, for example, which is only ~+3 vs normal. Memphis may be a target. Also, DFW should get some low 100s as has been mentioned by others.
That could atleast give me rain🤔🙏
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
19,161
Reaction score
46,055
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
Everyone's "favorite" lol, the all-knowing Maxar, says in this morning's 15 day forecast that these are the hottest days for selected cities as the SE is hotter today:

KATL: 95 on 8/2
KRDU: 95 on 7/31 and 8/4
Memphis: 97 on 7/31 and 8/2
KDFW: 101 on 7/25-8, 8/1-2

Anyone want to do an over or under vs these forecasts for the hottest during the period through 8/4?
They seem good to me. It's hard to find a lot of support for extreme 100+ stuff for Mem, Atl, Rdu even 95-100 is in the upper percent of the ensemble spreads.

That said 3-7 days of mid to possibly upper 90s is still going to stink
 

metwannabe

Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
13,846
Reaction score
27,700
Location
Just south of Roanoke Rapids, NC
They seem good to me. It's hard to find a lot of support for extreme 100+ stuff for Mem, Atl, Rdu even 95-100 is in the upper percent of the ensemble spreads.

That said 3-7 days of mid to possibly upper 90s is still going to stink
Yep and with all the rains/soil moisture, low level moisture and heat indices will suck
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
19,161
Reaction score
46,055
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
Ngl, you had me excited in the first half.

And then you came in with the cold bucket in the last part.
Ha if the gfs verified I wouldn't be too worried about big heat. You offset the warm 850s with a decent CU field and better storm chances. Honestly that gfs setup is one where we could get a dying mcs that hangs around most of the day and we are in the 70s/low 80s
 
Top