July Fry 2021

[SD]

I was going to say same thing, bet there's an OFB that kills it just as you say on our doorstep

Yeah I added to my post a little above. The lack of a lot of stratiform on the backside and the energy racing away makes it very similar to Wednesday. As we know though these typically arrive earlier than models have and have typically been a little more impressive than modeled. We will see but the ofb signature out front on the 3k makes me think it runs out of gas

 

[Metwannabe]

RAH office when they hit send on that tweetView attachment 86627

Maybe SDM47 does have connections over there ? Lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gsp

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[SD]

Maybe SDM47 does have connections over there ? Lol

I'll be honest when I saw that graphic this morning my first thought was that's all?

 

[SD]

View attachment 86629

The fv3 hires has been really good so far better than the hrrr and 3k. I thought it was going to be a giant turd

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The fv3 hires has been really good so far better than the hrrr and 3k. I thought it was going to be a giant turd

It’s depiction totally makes sense and the most with scattered stuff forming in the Piedmont first (which the hrrr/3km normally miss) then the stuff moving east from the mountains

 

[SD]

It’s depiction totally makes sense and the most with scattered stuff forming in the Piedmont first (which the hrrr/3km normally miss) then the stuff moving east from the mountains

Yeah it's done well picking up on the local mesoscale stuff like the sandhills convection and piedmont trough but I think it struggles with the seabreeze.

Nvm this is the 0z for this afternoon Seabreeze activate

 

[SD]

Anybody got them day 10-16 eps maps

 

[smast16]

The fv3 hires has been really good so far better than the hrrr and 3k. I thought it was going to be a giant turd

I hope it blows this, cuz it wiffs the NW Piedmont.

It's probably right tho.

 

[Avalanche]

No cumulo yet, just some high thin cirrus.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Anybody got them day 10-16 eps maps

 

[SD]

View attachment 86631View attachment 86632View attachment 86633

Not a bad look unless hurricane season starts heating up. Wonder how far W that ridge in the SW will retrograde

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Already 2K sbcape and 1000-1500 MLcape, might see more vigorous updrafts then modeled today

 

[SD]

Already 2K sbcape and 1000-1500 MLcape, might see more vigorous updrafts then modeled today View attachment 86634

Nice low level convergence from west of CLT north to near GSO into Central Va

 

[smast16]

No cumulo yet, just some high thin cirrus.

Better hope that blows out. Had some mid-upper level debris clouds hanging around all afternoon yesterday. Completely ruined any chance for convection.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nice low level convergence from west of CLT north to near GSO into Central Va

Hrrr doesn’t show much activity but it’s simulated IR satellite develops a nice CU field along it, kinda got Monday vibes but maybe a bit further west

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I'm going to play Mr negative here and say as modeled I bet that dies on our doorstep but it's close to being the first mountains to coast storm complex in ages.

This setup is very similar to Wednesday where the storms ran out of gas. Main trough and energy displaced north and moving away we would need a decent cold pool to develop on the backside to maybe aid in maintaining as it goes east.

I dont know this One at least has my eye as models with the last one didn’t even try to let it get this far … for tomorrow they have it at least going through us although I can see the weird set up and with it being later at night has me curious about its survival as well… I’ll be the advocate and push for this to make it into our neck of the woods Shane!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 86635

Come to DADDY ?
Would be night time storms too which mean loud thunder!