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Pattern Jarring January

Gimme a break on this snowhole:
gfs_asnow_seus_41.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, at this point, I'm hoping this winter could go down as the one in which (almost) every member got snow. We only have a few places in which it hasn't snowed at all, and that's central SC though the upstate, and then west into Texas and AR.
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crecre9 said:
And also the top half of Alabama.
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Southern Command is without a flake (literally and figuratively) ... :confused:
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This potential kind of looks like a late bloomer but a case in which we have a clipper interacting, so precip will occur earlier and further north from what we saw before. I'd like to see the GOM be tapped into some more for any case that is south of NC (what you see in the Euro map in south central AL shows why).
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Agreed. For me down here counting on a clipper is a fools errand pretty much all the time :)
 
Yeah, at this point, I'm hoping this winter could go down as the one in which (almost) every member got snow. We only have a few places in which it hasn't snowed at all, and that's central SC though the upstate, and then west into Texas and AR.
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crecre9 said:
And also the top half of Alabama.
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Checking in from Atlanta, where no snow fell (and nothing fell east towards Athens and south towards Augusta/Macon)
 
I'd argue against this being your average "run of the mill" clipper. H5 is supportive of modeling to latch on to an even larger event for some than depicted. While E11 from the GEFS is likely out of the question (foot totals around), I can definitely see snowfall being possible from I-20, North. Better as you get into NE Coastal SC (due to possible coastal development), and interior NC.
 
pcbjr said:
If we got ZR, it escaped me; never got below 33º until well after daybreak and from the time you could see, it was pure rain; at 500 was way too warm ... NWS reported no frozen, either ...
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I thought there was at least one official airport hourly report of rain and 32 degrees.
 
Not many changes, but what I do see; there should be a slightly different evolution based on H5. Might not be too shabby!
 
Like I said, any of us southwest of NC are going to need that GOM tap, which the Euro did have as possible. Maybe west of SC actually, let me look again.
 
Spann:
WINTER MISCHIEF NEXT WEEK? Monday will be dry with a high in the upper 40s, but a clipper type system will arrive Tuesday with a fresh supply of very cold air. Global models are suggesting some Gulf moisture could become involved in this, with potential for some light accumulating snow over a decent part of Alabama. The GFS even hints some snow could fall as far south as Mobile, Fairhope, and Gulf Shores by Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.

The ensemble mean from the reliable European global model is showing about one inch of snow for North/Central Alabama, with potential for heavier amounts in a few spots to the south, where moisture will be deeper. Needless to say, it is way too early for a specific forecast on snow amounts and impact, but just be aware of the potential.
KBHM_2018011212_eps_snow_240.jpg
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Like I said, any of us southwest of NC are going to need that GOM tap, which the Euro did have as possible. Maybe west of SC actually, let me look again.
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Absolutely. Anybody hoping for a big hit with the clipper only are setting themselves up for probable heartbreak.
 
Looking out further ahead, I'm now watching the Happy Hour run to see if that Arctic high of the 12Z run that comes down here 1/22 does the same on this run.
 
Yeah, we all know clippers are anemic. WRAL mentioned it but said not to expect much if anything, as if we were....its a clipper for goodness sakes.
 
Avalanche said:
Yeah, we all know clippers are anemic. WRAL mentioned it but said not to expect much if anything, as if we were....its a clipper for goodness sakes.
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They wouldn't say anything more no matter what this far out.
 
The clipper of 95 produced towering cumulonimbus clouds that gave a brief, but heavy burst of snow that gave a dusting here in Chatham/Orange. With a clipper, that's what you get.
 
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