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Pattern Jarring January

whamby said:
CMC bringing the stupid cold, probably the lowest temp in my area I've ever seen modeled.. Gfs about 15 degrees warmer at this time frame:
gem_T2m_seus_33.png

meanwhile:
gem_asnow_seus_40.png
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Ain't gonna happen.
History makes that clear.
Lived in the same house for 38 years; have a Chickasaw Plum; it has never, ever, ever bloomed until after the last freeze, be it in January or March or even April; the son of a biscuit eater popped out in nice white flowers today ...
 
Storm5 said:
Canadian ensembles day we roast by the end of the month
880a6109409f14dd74595e6d94188b1b.jpg



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I wouldn't bank on this, could it be right, sure however the CanSIPS long range Canadian model shows it above normal EVERY month pretty much all the time
 
MichaelJ said:
I wouldn't bank on this, could it be right, sure however the CanSIPS long range Canadian model shows it above normal EVERY month pretty much all the time
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Not banking on anything the eps and weeklies keep pushing back the pattern flip . I was just posting what it was showing


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The 0Z Euro, while still cold, dropped the epic SE cold. I think some of this is because it, too, apparently has a cold bias over snowcover and there wasn't a big SE snow on this run to display that bias. the last two Euro runs had hard freezes deep into FL.
 
Agree nalso Larry euro MJO goes into P2 and then halts or comes back into the COD on the left side. You have studies about that right?
 
Well Euro, has a wave outta the SW area that gets crushed by the NS. Further on in the run, things get interesting. I'm not really going to follow it until within day 3, but just a heads up.
 
deltadog03 said:
Agree nalso Larry euro MJO goes into P2 and then halts or comes back into the COD on the left side. You have studies about that right?
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Chris,
The EPS MJO forecast I see has it come back into the circle though on the right side first. The GEFS looks like it is trying to go back into the left side, but I'd go with the EPS over the GEFS. Subseqeuntly, it appears to head back to the left side of circle late Jan. I'm definitely liking this low amplitude EPS MJO forecast as that tends to minimize the chance a sustained warmup.
 
GaWx said:
Chris,
The EPS MJO forecast I see has it come back into the circle though on the right side first. The GEFS looks like it is trying to go back into the feft side, but I'd go with the EPS over the GEFS. Subseqeuntly, it appears to head back to the left side of circle late Jan. I'm definitely liking this low amplitude EPS MJO forecast as that tends to minimize the chance a sustained warmup.
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Thanks Larry. What an interesting la Nina so far this season
 
Storm5 said:
Not banking on anything the eps and weeklies keep pushing back the pattern flip . I was just posting what it was showing


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Oh I know, just making an editorial comment in an oblique way on the terribleness (is that a word?) of the CanSNIPS
 
Really hope this verifies in 8-9 days w/ a s/w bulldozing into south-central California and an intense vortex hanging tough in SE Canada and New England. If nothing else, many of us may finally get some precipitation, we're going into a moderate drought in central NC, and we need any rain/snow we can get....
eps_z500a_noram_35.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Really hope this verifies in 8-9 days w/ a s/w bulldozing into south-central California and an intense vortex hanging tough in SE Canada and New England. If nothing else, many of us may finally get some precipitation, we're going into a moderate drought in central NC, and we need any rain/snow we can get....
View attachment 2418
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I really hope the EURO holds this pattern. It looks really good down the road. I think we will moderate briefly before going right back to the freezer. Fun times ahead
 
Haha just saw you post it. Of course, Euro could be trolling yet again but atleast there’s better precip chances
 
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hartselleweather said:
Good things for this. It is far enough out it will get pushed southward like the other systems.
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However, the main difference is the other systems got pushed south because they had virtually no west-southwest/southwesterly flow aloft as the waves dove in from the NW mainly in the northern stream. We'd get a very nice fetch of moisture and mid-level warm air advection over top of the cold dome if this came anywhere close to verifying, surely it could get pushed further south but we actually stand a legitimate chance if anything close to what the Euro & CMC are advertising in the long range verifies.
 
Stormdoc said:
0Z has the same look Webb, with low in 4 corners and 1047 high in SE Canada
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Yep, it's amazing what happens when you actually have a s/w in the southern stream by the time it hits the west coast and you don't have to worry about it digging a lot to yield a nice WSWly moisture fetch over the SE US
 
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