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Pattern Jarring January

Storm5 said:
Yawn , we saw the models do that for days on end with the christmas period only to correct . After my snow next week I’ll be ready for spring anyway
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We also saw the models drop a foot of snow only to get clouds. Just saying that big epo needs help

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Mr. Grinch said:
Mid January looking good
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It's the GFS
 
Overall, the GFS clearly has a cold bias at 2 meters when averaged out. However, there are obviously times when individual runs verify much too warm in any given location at various forecast intervals.
 
A little OT, but any TN people notice that MRX is having issues with their AFD's? With all the storms possibly coming they keep skipping AFDs. Nothing this afternoon and quite a few mornings lately with nothing either.
 
Gf
Storm5 said:
The warmup on the eps keeps getting pushed further and further out in time . 00z run was below normal for 95 percent of the run


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Sweet
 
Yeah there's no doubt this warm-up that was progged for a couple weeks on the EPS is evaporating, I'm certainly not going to complain... The EPS still looks wrong w/ a trough in the southwestern US in the midst of an Alaskan ridge (which is getting stronger due to intense Indian Ocean forcing) but the last 3 runs have been trending towards squash city of the SE US ridge as the Alaskan ridge grows more intense on subsequent runs, which keeps the cold pattern going right on into mid-January.
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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah there's no doubt this warm-up that was progged for a couple weeks on the EPS is evaporating, I'm certainly not going to complain... The EPS still looks wrong w/ a trough in the southwestern US in the midst of an Alaskan ridge (which is getting stronger due to intense Indian Ocean forcing) but the last 3 runs have been trending towards squash city of the SE US ridge as the Alaskan ridge grows more intense on subsequent runs, which keeps the cold pattern going right on into mid-January.
View attachment 2376
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If only this could go until the end of January lol. Unfortunately we are bound to warm up eventually.
 
The last several runs of the EPS have been finally catching onto persistence of the -EPO into possibly mid-January, each successive suite is getting more aggressive the Alaskan blocking high in the longer term...
eps_epo_bias.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Eventually we probably are, but it looks like we're going to keep this rolling thru at least the 15th, maybe the 20th, that's amazing for a NINA winter
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My call for the Weeklies to cave in might turn out to be not so bad. :)
 
It's the placement of the SE ridge that is the key. It helps my area more than it hurts. Very very hard to get anything here besides cold with this setup.
 
Good lord next weeks cold shot might be colder than this weeks per the eps
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Webberweather53 said:
Eventually we probably are, but it looks like we're going to keep this rolling thru at least the 15th, maybe the 20th, that's amazing for a NINA winter
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There is no way we miss every single wave, either. Seriously, if we miss every single chance, the SE is not meant to see snow. At least, the Carolinas.
 
CMC bringing the stupid cold, probably the lowest temp in my area I've ever seen modeled.. Gfs about 15 degrees warmer at this time frame:
gem_T2m_seus_33.png

meanwhile:
gem_asnow_seus_40.png
 
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