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Pattern Jarring January

Watching the next system Friday into Saturday closely. Both long range forecast models showing accumulating snowfall for parts of North Alabama and middle Tennessee
26196073_1878150015551491_5615307422515504702_n.png
 
This guy does a great job for the northern MTns in NC , forecasting and keeping track of their wx up there. Speacil Micro climate.

Great read and he uses a little differnt metric than just days below freezing to capture the historical perspective of the latest cold outbreak. Check out these years that pop up. Not analogs but interesting none the less.

The recent cold stretch has been (depending on exactly how one looks at it) between the 2nd and 4th longest duration of cold in the climate records. Only once have we had more consecutive days with lows below 10° in Boone. We have had much deeper cold; the most remarkable aspect has been "duration". Dec 31 to Jan 6, ranked as the coldest on record overall in the East for these dates (see our recent Facebook Post on this point).
Below is data for the longest duration cold events for Boone NC. I used "less then 10" degrees for low temperatures as the criteria. Sorry I did not have time to produce graphs or make the data presentation prettier.

#Consecutive Days, Dates
8, Jan 16-23, 1977
7, Jan 1-7, 2018
6, Jan 15-20, 1994
6, Feb 5-10, 1995
5, Jan 8-12, 1942
5, Jan 8-12, 1956
5, Mar 4-8, 1960
5, Feb 3-7, 1996
5, Jan 4-8, 1999
5, Jan 8-12, 2010 (also the 14th)
4, Dec 20-23, 1935 (note 7 out of 8 days in a row)
4, Jan 25-28, 1940
4, Feb 14-17, 1943
4, Jan 16-19, 1959
4, Dec 10-13, 1962
4, Jan 1 - Feb 3, 1965
4, Jan 10-13, 1981
4, Jan 20-23, 1985 (-24 Jan 21)
4, Jan 5-8, 1988
4, Dec 22-25, 1989
4, Mar 8-11, 1996
4, Jan 11-14, 1997
4, Jan 17-20, 1997 (note 8 out of 10 in a row)
4, Jan 2-5, 2008
4, Jan 22-25, 2014

Other notes:
Jan 2014, 13 days < 10°
Winter 1976-1977 days below 10°, 23 days
Jan 1977, 14 days < 10°
Winter 1995-1996 days below 10°, 19 days
Jan 2014, 13 days < 10°
 
I think we need a lot of back and forth to get a good storm here. Of course sustained warmth isn't going to do us any good. But it seems like neither is sustained cold. The whole reason we struggled to get snow here in the Raleigh area with the last storm is because the air was so dry, which usually happens when we have a long period of bitter cold air. It usually seems we do better with big storm here when there's a lot of back and forth with the warm and cold air, like when we have 70 one day and then a week later it snows.
 
GaWx said:
NCSNOW,
I'm sticking to my warm dominated 1/16-2/28 based on analogs that I've mentioned since the start of winter. So, my call remains at least 2 F warmer than normal for the SE averaged out as a whole, which would still likely be much colder than last winter's 1/16-2/28.
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Larry, were there any analogs that you used that had a dominant -AO and stout -EPO we experienced? Couldn't there be a tendency for the AO to tank again or is this something that is more likely during early vs late winter for most Ninas?
 
Storm5 said:
What does this even mean ??,

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
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What I'm saying is that this pattern seems all too familiar. Cramming two storm so close usually kills one by drying it up as we get closer to hour 0. I would rather see an upper south storm for the area with overruning over a cutter. I spoke too soon about the second that, as that could just cut everything and not become a nice overruning event. Some people haven't seen snow yet, so I'm rooting for something that will cover up TN, MS, and SC.
 
ForsythSnow said:
What I'm saying is that this pattern seems all too familiar. Cramming two storm so close usually kills one by drying it up as we get closer to hour 0. I would rather see an upper south storm for the area with overruning over a cutter. I spoke too soon about the second that, as that could just cut everything and not become a nice overruning event. Some people haven't seen snow yet, so I'm rooting for something that will cover up TN, MS, and SC.
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You forgot poor ol' Gainesville ... LOL ... :eek:
 
^
1300m said:
Hey guys, not sure if this belongs here or not but this is some research I have done for "big" (6"+ single day) snowstorms for RDU and I'm sure it is applicable to many in the southern U.S. It's a look at the average H5 anomalies evolution from Day 5 through verification. If this should be moved to banter or somewhere else feel free to move it!

RDUsnowstorms.png
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1300m,
Thanks for posting these interesting maps. Since I had already researched the various indices for RDU's 21 6"+ storms since 1950, I think I can add some insight to this topic. I had earlier compiled the NAO for the days of the storm. In light of your research/maps, I'll add the NAO for 5 days prior (my range for neutral NAO is -0.250 to +0.250):

21 6”+ storms RDU since 1950:

-1/19/1955: -NAO; 5 days before -1.214 (-NAO)
- 12/11/1958: neutral NAO; 5 days before -1.168 (-NAO)
- 3/2-3/1960: neutral NAO; 5 days before -0.740 (-NAO)
- 3/9/1960: neutral NAO; 5 days before +0.107 (neutral NAO)
- 2/26/1963: neutral NAO; 5 days before -0.245 (neutral NAO)
- 1/25-7/1966: -NAO; 5 days before -1.739 (-NAO)
- 2/9/1967: +NAO; 5 days before +0.735 (+NAO)
- 3/1/1969: -NAO; 5 days before -0.681 (-NAO)
- 1/7-8/1973: -NAO; 5 days before +0.347 (+NAO)
- 2/18-9/1979: neutral NAO; 5 days before -0.616 (-NAO)
- 3/1-2/1980: +NAO; 5 days before +1.108 (+NAO)
- 1/13-14/1982: neutral NAO; 5 days before -1.788 (-NAO)
-3/24/1983: neutral NAO; 5 days before +1.009 (+NAO)
- 2/6/1984: +NAO; 5 days before +1.045 (+NAO)
- 1/7-8/1988: +NAO; 5 days before +0.953 (+NAO)
- 2/17-8/1989: +NAO; 5 days before +1.792 (+NAO)
- 1/24-5/2000: -NAO; 5 days before -0.723 (-NAO)
- 1/2-3/2002: -NAO; 5 days before -0.736 (-NAO)
- 2/26-7/2004: -NAO; 5 days before -0.095 (neutral NAO)
- 12/25-6/2010: -NAO; 5 days before -0.740 (-NAO)
- 2/24-6/2015: +NAO; 5 days before +1.341 (+NAO)

Tally for 5 days before:

-NAO 10
Neutral NAO 3
+NAO 8


Tally for day of
-NAO: 8
Neutral NAO: 7
+NAO: 6

Either way (5 days before or day of) for RDU and much of the SE, I think that the -NAO is overrated. I’d rather have it than not have it as I think it generally helps more than hurts and the numbers suggest some help, but these numbers still suggest to me that it is not crucial to have it. I mean only about half the storms had one 5 days out. Classic great storms such as 3/1980, 3/1983, and 1/1988 all had a solid +NAO 5 days before them. 2/2004 had neutral then. Though not a big Raleigh snowstorm, 3/1993 had neutral 5 days out. Also, though not Raleigh snowstorms, neither of the two big storms so far this winter had a -NAO either during or 5 days prior. They were either + or neutral.

The average NAO for the 21 RDU 6”+ storms is only a barely negative (essentially neutral) -0.10 vs the average NAO for DJFM since 1950 of +0.07. That is not a strong signal to me.

Edit: Even the great 2/1973 deep south snowstorm had a +NAO both 5 days before and during it though 12/1989 had a -NAO 5 days prior though not during it. My point is that some classic SE storms had it and some didn't.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
What I'm saying is that this pattern seems all too familiar. Cramming two storm so close usually kills one by drying it up as we get closer to hour 0. I would rather see an upper south storm for the area with overruning over a cutter. I spoke too soon about the second that, as that could just cut everything and not become a nice overruning event. Some people haven't seen snow yet, so I'm rooting for something that will cover up TN, MS, and SC.
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But with no blocking, this is a way we can score! You get the Memphis Mauler on Saturday or so, have it bomb out through the OH valley, bring down the cold shot, slow the flow slightly, then have our storm come along the gulf coast , cold in place, bam! Crush job
 
If an -AO can establish itself as the long range is hinting some...we can "probably" throw away our typical La Nina thoughts. I absolutely respect the knowledge from people that try to do long range predictions but like I said sometimes...mother nature does what she does and not what is normal for a La Nina/El Nino/etc.
 
Oh I've seen snow because I happened to be traveling the day after the Northwest Atlanta burbs got nailed and my mom's side of the family lives in LaFayette, GA so I saw the aftermath but it unfortunately isn't the same as "in progress". I don't need to be home, but I do want an "in progress" storm.

I'll be fine if I don't get one but in a perfect world, I can get a 2-3 inch in progress snow and I'll be fine for a while.

And I'm not like SoutheastRidge who can just go traveling lol.
 
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