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Pattern Jarring January

Look at this def band holy sh**
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Tarheel1 said:
Warm for almost a month and a half, is a pretty bold statement/ forecast!
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But I've backed it up with analogs. And I didn't say warm for almost a month and a half. I said warm dominated. And you're just a troll though a respected troll. I probably shouldn't even respond to you. ;)
 
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Storm5 said:
Yep Euro has another next Tuesday like the cmc. Crushes everything , but that has potential as well. Fun times ahead over the next 8 days

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If the weekend storm verifies like currently showing this could help to set the stage for the Monday/Tuesday system, especially if there is any snow cover around.
 
Man I’m excited and nervous at the same time. Models show Big snow totals to my west and maybe an inch or so imby. Guess I’m better off not being in the sweet spot 5 days out. Big snows that just miss you are the hardest to swallow.
 
olhausen said:
Man I’m excited and nervous at the same time. Models show Big snow totals to my west and maybe an inch or so imby. Guess I’m better off not being in the sweet spot 5 days out. Big snows that just miss you are the hardest to swallow.
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Upper level lows are such a fickle thing to deal with. Get it to close and stay closed or close later and you could get nailed.
 
Realistically we probably go zonal for a bit with some upper south chances and then get ready for Fab Feb.


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NCSNOW said:
warm up till weekend, turn cold 4 or maybe 5 days, warm up 1 more time briefly, then cold comes in and camps out for a longer duration.
AO will lock in negative late Jan into most of Feb.
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The southern oscillation index has been rapidly descending since early December which is a good signal for below normal temperatures in the east to end winter. If we start to see the SOI ascend into positive territory to end January I believe above normal temperatures will dominate in the east.

Weak Nina analog years of 1996, 2006, 2013 and 2014 all had descending SOI from January into February. Analog years of 1997, 2001, 2008 and 2011 all had ascending SOI and were above normal in the east for February.

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GaWx said:
NCSNOW,
Maybe I missed your reasoning, but on what basis are you saying "cold comes in and camps out for a longer duration" and that the "AO will lock in negative late Jan into most of Feb?" These are very strong statements. I respect other opinions but only if there is a basis.

I'm not trying to pick on you and I've liked you as a poster in general, but you've been repeating this kind of thing and I don't recall you backing it up with your own thoughts when I've asked you.

By the way, JB doesn't count as he almost always says cold Feb in the E US often after a Jan thaw. He is incredibly predictable and his saying cold Feb doesn't do anything to convince me even though he could always end up right like broken clocks do. Not only is he a winter weenie, but also he wants more clicks. In addition, I believe he is biased toward cold because he has energy clients and colder means higher heating fuel prices. Actually, if JB were to say "warm Feb.". I'd pay much more attention.

I'm sticking to my warm dominated 1/16-2/28 based on analogs that I've mentioned since the start of winter. So, my call remains at least 2 F warmer than normal for the SE averaged out as a whole, which would still likely be much colder than last winter's 1/16-2/28.
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The following is a public service anouncement/ Free of Charge, LOL: Larry in my opinion from looking at all modeling past mid Jan point. It looks to me to be pretty heavy handed that we will get a -AO and it will have some staying power for a few weeks. Looks pretty stout in my opinion. Doesnt mean well get a -NAO ( not that we need it imo) and yes we still need the pac to be tweeked and roll back over ( which I think it will) . I had the same pre -season and early opinion you and several others had , that winter would be over at the mid point. Looking at traditional La nina background state, analogs etc. You have laid out a great case and stuck with it. I just have had a change of opinion lately. I think we still can NET a lot more window of opportunity over the SE(espeacilly my neck of the woods) the last 45 days. The current background this winter and up until this point says bet the streak, which is BN avg temp and BN precip for my area. No way RDU doesnt end up BN for the 3rd month in a row by Jan31st. If we end up BN for FEB weve scored a coup in my opinion considering what I and alot of folks thought back in NOV. Jury is still out and I have no problem with you questioning my opinion and respect yours highly. You do a great deal of research and put alot of effort into your annalysis and forecast.opinions. Fact I look forward to your thoughts . Hope this helps and If my hunch is right chalk it up more on the luck side than skill.

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