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Pattern Jarring January

Jan 16-18 looks very interesting on the 12z CMC. A couple baby steps away from a nice winter event for many. But strangely enough it looks like a lot of our near misses the past 10 days. Wave diving out of Canada getting squashed by a strong HP on its heals. I still see some potential
 
Storm5 said:
12z gfs has a winter storm for West Tennessee

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and here
gfs_6snow_slp_birmingham_20.png
 
Stormlover said:
and here
gfs_6snow_slp_birmingham_20.png
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Very skeptical of that with the low tracking directly overhead. Regardless there is plenty of time for changes . The models keep shifting the track all over the place from run to run . As it stands right now if I lived in Arkansas , West Tennessee and northwest Mississippi i would be optimistic.
 
Good thing is that we finally are getting a break from the cold, and only a short one. Looks like we are going to be above freezing until Saturday night, then we go back into the freezer.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Good thing is that we finally are getting a break from the cold, and only a short one. Looks like we are going to be above freezing until Saturday night, then we go back into the freezer.
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But how long do we stay in the freezer ? I would be surprised to see such an extended period of cold again.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
But how long do we stay in the freezer ? I would be surprised to see such an extended period of cold again.
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It almost looks like both patterns are going to be transient until some blocking sets up either in favor of Siberia or N America. We will have to see but for now I don't know which pattern will prevail. La Nina tells me it's the warm one, but the way things have been going says we will get cold again.
 
Storm5 said:
Gefs loves Tennessee this run
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Count me in as one that is "A-Okay" with an approximate 0.5 to 1 inch ensemble mean for my location at this point. Needs some work though.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It almost looks like both patterns are going to be transient until some blocking sets up either in favor of Siberia or N America. We will have to see but for now I don't know which pattern will prevail. La Nina tells me it's the warm one, but the way things have been going says we will get cold again.
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warm up till weekend, turn cold 4 or maybe 5 days, warm up 1 more time briefly, then cold comes in and camps out for a longer duration.
AO will lock in negative late Jan into most of Feb.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It almost looks like both patterns are going to be transient until some blocking sets up either in favor of Siberia or N America. We will have to see but for now I don't know which pattern will prevail. La Nina tells me it's the warm one, but the way things have been going says we will get cold again.
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I don't know exactly the words I'm looking for, but I think what's going on is until the Atlantic takes over, we won't see an 11/12 like pattern which was warm (I think it was also a Nina). And while it was a while ago, the tweet that was talking about it said "don't expect the Atlantic to take over the pattern anytime soon as predicted".
 
NCSNOW said:
warm up till weekend, turn cold 4 or maybe 5 days, warm up 1 more time briefly, then cold comes in and camps out for a longer duration.
AO will lock in negative late Jan into most of Feb.
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NCSNOW,
Maybe I missed your reasoning, but on what basis are you saying "cold comes in and camps out for a longer duration" and that the "AO will lock in negative late Jan into most of Feb?" These are very strong statements. I respect other opinions but only if there is a basis.

I'm not trying to pick on you and I've liked you as a poster in general, but you've been repeating this kind of thing and I don't recall you backing it up with your own thoughts when I've asked you.

By the way, JB doesn't count as he almost always says cold Feb in the E US often after a Jan thaw. He is incredibly predictable and his saying cold Feb doesn't do anything to convince me even though he could always end up right like broken clocks do. Not only is he a winter weenie, but also he wants more clicks. In addition, I believe he is biased toward cold because he has energy clients and colder means higher heating fuel prices. Actually, if JB were to say "warm Feb.". I'd pay much more attention.

I'm sticking to my warm dominated 1/16-2/28 based on analogs that I've mentioned since the start of winter. So, my call remains at least 2 F warmer than normal for the SE averaged out as a whole, which would still likely be much colder than last winter's 1/16-2/28.
 
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Storm5 said:
Euro is a major winter storm for Arkansas, northern Mississippi and Tennessee

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I'm getting excited about this to say the least! Looks like this could be the real deal finally for the Upper South.
 
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