I never said nor implied it was the entire answer but it's a very substantial piece, the NAO stint in 2009-10 was aided by the combination of a NINO which amplifies the standing planetary wave train, EQBO that deters Rossby wave momentum deposition from crossing the equator into the other hemisphere and favors wave activity flux onto the winter Hemisphere, & also aids w/ instigating intraseasonal tropical convection which can trigger SSWEs thru Rossby Wave Trains, low solar activity and favorable preceding interannual ENSO variability (more La Ninas before the 2009-10 El Niño) which favors the build up of ozone in the global tropics and subtropics that can be then opportunistically transported poleward to trigger sudden warming events and prolonged tropospheric blocking regimes if accompanied by an El Niño that accelerates the Brewer Dobson Circulation. Not to mention a properly timed and placed wave train never hurts... Again, other than a few stints like 2009-10, 2010-11, & March 2013 the overwhelming majority of winters since the mid-late 1970s have featured positive or strongly positive NAOs and their frequency has generally increased with time, with this year poised to continue the long-term trend. A few or several big NAO winters for that matter don't negate the signal or somehow imply that the climate-NAO connection is crap and should be re-evaluated. Similarly, a few cold months or winters and/or large winter storms in a period dominated by warming and less frequent snowfall also doesn't suddenly mean we aren't warming anymore, but rather the cumulative probability of attaining the "preferred" proportion of above to below normal winters is lower the less time you integrate the distribution. The frequency distribution with the integration of more winters will asymptotically tend towards the actual, preferred climate state but this also doesn't mean that a 30-40 year period is fully representative of the full spectrum of climate variability in a particular background. However, a collection of neighboring stations with longer records is likely a better answer and/or NWP simulations which are capable of reproducing a large collection of winters tens of thousands of times over in a given climate and capture variation that's not explicitly shown in observations esspecially in a short period of record (30-40 years).
Wow, didn't expect to see that this morning. Guess we have something to track again. Not sure if there's anything scientific about it, but it does seem when it hits near 70 around here in winter about a week later we get a shot at snow. Maybe the rubber band snapping back.
This is our best chance for a board wide storm affecting the most people.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Snapping back just in time to give you another 1/2 inch!
Could be a couple of inches. I'll take that. But nice troll post.
The negative regimes really weren't all that frequent before 2011 either, the NAO was even more positive in the 1990s than it is now so the mechanism that's favoring these regimes has been around for a while and not just since 2011 as you're trying to suggest. We've seen a complete reversal of the AMO over the course of the last several decades yet the NAO continues to trend positive in the longer term consistent with the increasingly unfavorable bgd climateNo one has implied that the climate-NAO connection is crap. However, I am outright stating that I do believe that the sudden shift from relatively frequent stints of negative NAOs during winter months up until 2011 to shutting it off entirely is driven by something additional. I am fully aware that the NAO has been trending more positive since the 70s, after all I made this graph about 8 years ago.
06z GFS squashes it to oblivion with this look, not that I buy it, but it then develops a late blooming coastal that throws moisture back into NE NC for a brief light albeit high ratio snow with an inch or two.
This is our best chance for a board wide storm affecting the most people.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NW trend?06z GFS squashes it to oblivion with this look, not that I buy it, but it then develops a late blooming coastal that throws moisture back into NE NC for a brief light albeit high ratio snow with an inch or two.
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Other than the system for western sections of our region, no other game in town, this may be our best shot.... will need some things to come together perfectly to thread the needle but not out of the question. Just enough NS for cold but not too much to crush any s/w...who knows but at least it's something.Euro is close to being on board also on next Tuesday/Wednesday..
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Lol yeah we'd actually need a w/sw trend to have a shot at this one... doesn't matter, GFS will look totally different here in a couple minutes.NW trend?
Actually January-March 2013, January 2014, & January 2016 all featured a negative NAO which is at least 5 months in that period. Of course you purposely left out the early-mid 1990s that I was referring to earlier wherein the winter mean NAO was clearly even more positive which skews the data to show more frequent -NAOs in the preceding period before 2011 and makes it look like there's something dramatically different in its overall behavior between 2011-12 to present and 1990-2011, which there's not...