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Pattern Jarring January

Look at this def band holy sh**
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Storm5 said:
Yep Euro has another next Tuesday like the cmc. Crushes everything , but that has potential as well. Fun times ahead over the next 8 days

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If the weekend storm verifies like currently showing this could help to set the stage for the Monday/Tuesday system, especially if there is any snow cover around.
 
Man I’m excited and nervous at the same time. Models show Big snow totals to my west and maybe an inch or so imby. Guess I’m better off not being in the sweet spot 5 days out. Big snows that just miss you are the hardest to swallow.
 
olhausen said:
Man I’m excited and nervous at the same time. Models show Big snow totals to my west and maybe an inch or so imby. Guess I’m better off not being in the sweet spot 5 days out. Big snows that just miss you are the hardest to swallow.
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Upper level lows are such a fickle thing to deal with. Get it to close and stay closed or close later and you could get nailed.
 
Realistically we probably go zonal for a bit with some upper south chances and then get ready for Fab Feb.


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NCSNOW said:
warm up till weekend, turn cold 4 or maybe 5 days, warm up 1 more time briefly, then cold comes in and camps out for a longer duration.
AO will lock in negative late Jan into most of Feb.
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The southern oscillation index has been rapidly descending since early December which is a good signal for below normal temperatures in the east to end winter. If we start to see the SOI ascend into positive territory to end January I believe above normal temperatures will dominate in the east.

Weak Nina analog years of 1996, 2006, 2013 and 2014 all had descending SOI from January into February. Analog years of 1997, 2001, 2008 and 2011 all had ascending SOI and were above normal in the east for February.

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GaWx said:
NCSNOW,
Maybe I missed your reasoning, but on what basis are you saying "cold comes in and camps out for a longer duration" and that the "AO will lock in negative late Jan into most of Feb?" These are very strong statements. I respect other opinions but only if there is a basis.

I'm not trying to pick on you and I've liked you as a poster in general, but you've been repeating this kind of thing and I don't recall you backing it up with your own thoughts when I've asked you.

By the way, JB doesn't count as he almost always says cold Feb in the E US often after a Jan thaw. He is incredibly predictable and his saying cold Feb doesn't do anything to convince me even though he could always end up right like broken clocks do. Not only is he a winter weenie, but also he wants more clicks. In addition, I believe he is biased toward cold because he has energy clients and colder means higher heating fuel prices. Actually, if JB were to say "warm Feb.". I'd pay much more attention.

I'm sticking to my warm dominated 1/16-2/28 based on analogs that I've mentioned since the start of winter. So, my call remains at least 2 F warmer than normal for the SE averaged out as a whole, which would still likely be much colder than last winter's 1/16-2/28.
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The following is a public service anouncement/ Free of Charge, LOL: Larry in my opinion from looking at all modeling past mid Jan point. It looks to me to be pretty heavy handed that we will get a -AO and it will have some staying power for a few weeks. Looks pretty stout in my opinion. Doesnt mean well get a -NAO ( not that we need it imo) and yes we still need the pac to be tweeked and roll back over ( which I think it will) . I had the same pre -season and early opinion you and several others had , that winter would be over at the mid point. Looking at traditional La nina background state, analogs etc. You have laid out a great case and stuck with it. I just have had a change of opinion lately. I think we still can NET a lot more window of opportunity over the SE(espeacilly my neck of the woods) the last 45 days. The current background this winter and up until this point says bet the streak, which is BN avg temp and BN precip for my area. No way RDU doesnt end up BN for the 3rd month in a row by Jan31st. If we end up BN for FEB weve scored a coup in my opinion considering what I and alot of folks thought back in NOV. Jury is still out and I have no problem with you questioning my opinion and respect yours highly. You do a great deal of research and put alot of effort into your annalysis and forecast.opinions. Fact I look forward to your thoughts . Hope this helps and If my hunch is right chalk it up more on the luck side than skill.

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Watching the next system Friday into Saturday closely. Both long range forecast models showing accumulating snowfall for parts of North Alabama and middle Tennessee
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This guy does a great job for the northern MTns in NC , forecasting and keeping track of their wx up there. Speacil Micro climate.

Great read and he uses a little differnt metric than just days below freezing to capture the historical perspective of the latest cold outbreak. Check out these years that pop up. Not analogs but interesting none the less.

The recent cold stretch has been (depending on exactly how one looks at it) between the 2nd and 4th longest duration of cold in the climate records. Only once have we had more consecutive days with lows below 10° in Boone. We have had much deeper cold; the most remarkable aspect has been "duration". Dec 31 to Jan 6, ranked as the coldest on record overall in the East for these dates (see our recent Facebook Post on this point).
Below is data for the longest duration cold events for Boone NC. I used "less then 10" degrees for low temperatures as the criteria. Sorry I did not have time to produce graphs or make the data presentation prettier.

#Consecutive Days, Dates
8, Jan 16-23, 1977
7, Jan 1-7, 2018
6, Jan 15-20, 1994
6, Feb 5-10, 1995
5, Jan 8-12, 1942
5, Jan 8-12, 1956
5, Mar 4-8, 1960
5, Feb 3-7, 1996
5, Jan 4-8, 1999
5, Jan 8-12, 2010 (also the 14th)
4, Dec 20-23, 1935 (note 7 out of 8 days in a row)
4, Jan 25-28, 1940
4, Feb 14-17, 1943
4, Jan 16-19, 1959
4, Dec 10-13, 1962
4, Jan 1 - Feb 3, 1965
4, Jan 10-13, 1981
4, Jan 20-23, 1985 (-24 Jan 21)
4, Jan 5-8, 1988
4, Dec 22-25, 1989
4, Mar 8-11, 1996
4, Jan 11-14, 1997
4, Jan 17-20, 1997 (note 8 out of 10 in a row)
4, Jan 2-5, 2008
4, Jan 22-25, 2014

Other notes:
Jan 2014, 13 days < 10°
Winter 1976-1977 days below 10°, 23 days
Jan 1977, 14 days < 10°
Winter 1995-1996 days below 10°, 19 days
Jan 2014, 13 days < 10°
 
I think we need a lot of back and forth to get a good storm here. Of course sustained warmth isn't going to do us any good. But it seems like neither is sustained cold. The whole reason we struggled to get snow here in the Raleigh area with the last storm is because the air was so dry, which usually happens when we have a long period of bitter cold air. It usually seems we do better with big storm here when there's a lot of back and forth with the warm and cold air, like when we have 70 one day and then a week later it snows.
 
GaWx said:
NCSNOW,
I'm sticking to my warm dominated 1/16-2/28 based on analogs that I've mentioned since the start of winter. So, my call remains at least 2 F warmer than normal for the SE averaged out as a whole, which would still likely be much colder than last winter's 1/16-2/28.
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Larry, were there any analogs that you used that had a dominant -AO and stout -EPO we experienced? Couldn't there be a tendency for the AO to tank again or is this something that is more likely during early vs late winter for most Ninas?
 
Storm5 said:
What does this even mean ??,

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What I'm saying is that this pattern seems all too familiar. Cramming two storm so close usually kills one by drying it up as we get closer to hour 0. I would rather see an upper south storm for the area with overruning over a cutter. I spoke too soon about the second that, as that could just cut everything and not become a nice overruning event. Some people haven't seen snow yet, so I'm rooting for something that will cover up TN, MS, and SC.
 
ForsythSnow said:
What I'm saying is that this pattern seems all too familiar. Cramming two storm so close usually kills one by drying it up as we get closer to hour 0. I would rather see an upper south storm for the area with overruning over a cutter. I spoke too soon about the second that, as that could just cut everything and not become a nice overruning event. Some people haven't seen snow yet, so I'm rooting for something that will cover up TN, MS, and SC.
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You forgot poor ol' Gainesville ... LOL ... :eek:
 
^
1300m said:
Hey guys, not sure if this belongs here or not but this is some research I have done for "big" (6"+ single day) snowstorms for RDU and I'm sure it is applicable to many in the southern U.S. It's a look at the average H5 anomalies evolution from Day 5 through verification. If this should be moved to banter or somewhere else feel free to move it!

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1300m,
Thanks for posting these interesting maps. Since I had already researched the various indices for RDU's 21 6"+ storms since 1950, I think I can add some insight to this topic. I had earlier compiled the NAO for the days of the storm. In light of your research/maps, I'll add the NAO for 5 days prior (my range for neutral NAO is -0.250 to +0.250):

21 6”+ storms RDU since 1950:

-1/19/1955: -NAO; 5 days before -1.214 (-NAO)
- 12/11/1958: neutral NAO; 5 days before -1.168 (-NAO)
- 3/2-3/1960: neutral NAO; 5 days before -0.740 (-NAO)
- 3/9/1960: neutral NAO; 5 days before +0.107 (neutral NAO)
- 2/26/1963: neutral NAO; 5 days before -0.245 (neutral NAO)
- 1/25-7/1966: -NAO; 5 days before -1.739 (-NAO)
- 2/9/1967: +NAO; 5 days before +0.735 (+NAO)
- 3/1/1969: -NAO; 5 days before -0.681 (-NAO)
- 1/7-8/1973: -NAO; 5 days before +0.347 (+NAO)
- 2/18-9/1979: neutral NAO; 5 days before -0.616 (-NAO)
- 3/1-2/1980: +NAO; 5 days before +1.108 (+NAO)
- 1/13-14/1982: neutral NAO; 5 days before -1.788 (-NAO)
-3/24/1983: neutral NAO; 5 days before +1.009 (+NAO)
- 2/6/1984: +NAO; 5 days before +1.045 (+NAO)
- 1/7-8/1988: +NAO; 5 days before +0.953 (+NAO)
- 2/17-8/1989: +NAO; 5 days before +1.792 (+NAO)
- 1/24-5/2000: -NAO; 5 days before -0.723 (-NAO)
- 1/2-3/2002: -NAO; 5 days before -0.736 (-NAO)
- 2/26-7/2004: -NAO; 5 days before -0.095 (neutral NAO)
- 12/25-6/2010: -NAO; 5 days before -0.740 (-NAO)
- 2/24-6/2015: +NAO; 5 days before +1.341 (+NAO)

Tally for 5 days before:

-NAO 10
Neutral NAO 3
+NAO 8


Tally for day of
-NAO: 8
Neutral NAO: 7
+NAO: 6

Either way (5 days before or day of) for RDU and much of the SE, I think that the -NAO is overrated. I’d rather have it than not have it as I think it generally helps more than hurts and the numbers suggest some help, but these numbers still suggest to me that it is not crucial to have it. I mean only about half the storms had one 5 days out. Classic great storms such as 3/1980, 3/1983, and 1/1988 all had a solid +NAO 5 days before them. 2/2004 had neutral then. Though not a big Raleigh snowstorm, 3/1993 had neutral 5 days out. Also, though not Raleigh snowstorms, neither of the two big storms so far this winter had a -NAO either during or 5 days prior. They were either + or neutral.

The average NAO for the 21 RDU 6”+ storms is only a barely negative (essentially neutral) -0.10 vs the average NAO for DJFM since 1950 of +0.07. That is not a strong signal to me.

Edit: Even the great 2/1973 deep south snowstorm had a +NAO both 5 days before and during it though 12/1989 had a -NAO 5 days prior though not during it. My point is that some classic SE storms had it and some didn't.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
What I'm saying is that this pattern seems all too familiar. Cramming two storm so close usually kills one by drying it up as we get closer to hour 0. I would rather see an upper south storm for the area with overruning over a cutter. I spoke too soon about the second that, as that could just cut everything and not become a nice overruning event. Some people haven't seen snow yet, so I'm rooting for something that will cover up TN, MS, and SC.
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But with no blocking, this is a way we can score! You get the Memphis Mauler on Saturday or so, have it bomb out through the OH valley, bring down the cold shot, slow the flow slightly, then have our storm come along the gulf coast , cold in place, bam! Crush job
 
If an -AO can establish itself as the long range is hinting some...we can "probably" throw away our typical La Nina thoughts. I absolutely respect the knowledge from people that try to do long range predictions but like I said sometimes...mother nature does what she does and not what is normal for a La Nina/El Nino/etc.
 
Oh I've seen snow because I happened to be traveling the day after the Northwest Atlanta burbs got nailed and my mom's side of the family lives in LaFayette, GA so I saw the aftermath but it unfortunately isn't the same as "in progress". I don't need to be home, but I do want an "in progress" storm.

I'll be fine if I don't get one but in a perfect world, I can get a 2-3 inch in progress snow and I'll be fine for a while.

And I'm not like SoutheastRidge who can just go traveling lol.
 
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