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Pattern Jarring January

I love how everyone is saying in definitive terms “there won’t be a New Years storm”.

It’s 6+ days away. Let the model runs pan out. They’ve been so inconsistent, no reason to believe (or truly disbelieve) their outputs. We can only take what they show us so far. Once it gets closer, we can start talking in more definitive terms.
 
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Nam0806 said:
I love how everyone is saying in definitive terms “there won’t be a New Years storm”.

It’s 6+ days away. Let the model runs pan out. They’ve been so inconsistent, no reason to believe (or truly disbelieve) their outputs. We can only take what they show us so far. Once it gets closer, we can start taking in more definitive terms.
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For real. Throw in the towel? That's hilarious. It won't get things nailed down to 2 or 3 days out.
 
Stormlover said:
For real. Throw in the towel? That's hilarious. It won't get things nailed down to 2 or 3 days out.
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Exactly. I wasn't expecting 9 inches at all and I only saw higher amounts a day or two out. In addition, the models are all over the place, but the energy is there and there is a sign of moisture. I'll give up a day or two out if it dries out.
 
18z
06z
12z gefs runs . Headed the wrong way

57d84b66af95abfac92d6a5e1604f482.jpg
7d8691e3bce1f0e0d11578f702d837f6.jpg
50c538fa53be5ebe24e273d890d4be75.jpg



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Storm5 said:
18z
06z
12z gefs runs . Headed the wrong way

57d84b66af95abfac92d6a5e1604f482.jpg
7d8691e3bce1f0e0d11578f702d837f6.jpg
50c538fa53be5ebe24e273d890d4be75.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I see you were putting your hopes in the GFS/GEFS on this one...How is that working out for you. Let’s get the Euro on our side and then go all in...LOL!


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I don't think we're going to like the ending with New Years. It's likely to either be too amped or be no storm due to NS interaction.
 
I'm taking it with a humongous grain but fwiw the 12Z Euro has a significant wintry event on 1/1 for the SAV-CHS corridor believe it or not. But that's what can happen when there is a surface low that tracks 200-250 miles SE of that area, which actually is similar to what is being modeled for 12/29!

This run has 0.25" qpf SAV-CHS that falls as mainly SN at CHS (2" on my clown map) and mix of SN, IP, and ZR at SAV with 0.5" on clown map. Surface temps on the normally warm biased Euro are 32 or colder.

So, the model consensus has not one but an unreal TWO significant wintry threats within 4 days of each other for SAV-CHS! SAV hasn't had even one wintry event of this caliber since 12/1989 (basically since before I started posting on Prodigy back in 1992 and started following models in the 1990s.) So, if I were to sound a little excited about the potential, don't mind me.
 
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GaWx said:
I'm taking it with a humongous grain but fwiw the 12Z Euro has a significant wintry event on 1/1 for the SAV-CHS corridor believe it or not. But that's what can happen when there is a surface low that tracks 200-250 miles SE of that area, which actually is similar to what is being modeled for 12/29!
Click to expand...

This storm may have legs but still a ways out...


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