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Pattern Jarring January

This will be a colder, less amped run. Not too shabby.
 
We will have to wait at least until the 00z or 12z runs tomorrow to watch the GFS crash and burn


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Nice snows, all the way to CAE, ATL, some mixing issues on the backend as it strengthens, but overall a better track for some!
 
Shawn said:
Nice snows, all the way to CAE, ATL, some mixing issues on the backend as it strengthens, but overall a better track for some!
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Be nice if we could reel this one in man. We'd want that SLP to track down by Tampa though wouldn't we, to be in better position SN wise?
 
Low pressure tracks substantially further South on this run and doesn't start a NE track from Florida Panhandle until late. Good moisture influx, very good run.

Now, if only it weren't the GFS.
 
Shawn said:
Low pressure tracks substantially further South on this run and doesn't start a NE track from Florida Panhandle until late. Good moisture influx, very good run.

Now, if only it weren't the GFS.
Click to expand...

Key phrase “further south.” It’s slowly headed towards the Euro...


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whatalife said:
Key phrase “further south.” It’s slowly headed towards the Euro...


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The Euro @ 500 vort is nothing like this, sadly. So this storm probably won't even exist.
 
I like this GFS run. But it’s the GFS so who knows what would happen.
 
Everyone goes over to snow on this GFS run who have precip left. It's not bad at all.
 
It's reaching for the stars a bit, but with what I have from the Euro/EPS, I've noticed a few times it's gotten on board a bit later with something this year. So maybe...

But at this point, it's a fantasy run, which is sad because A: we're within a week. B: the model should be much better considering the technology we have today. This is highly likely another imaginary storm.
 
Some of this is Snow/IP mix, maybe some ice around for further South areas; but you can clearly see the ra/sn line.

gfs_asnow_us_27.png
 
We all know what goofus is going to do. YET! We all set here and watch this train wreck of a model...LOL!


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GFS is going to lose this storm before long unless something changes lol the southwesterly flow in the mid-levels is falling off w/ every run, thus we're eventually not going to have much, if any moisture to work with as verification approaches.
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