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Pattern Januworry

All systems remain a go for a good shot at the coldest period of the winter to date during the last week of January. All models continue to suggest a good shot at the coldest period at least since the extreme cold of early January of 2018! Exciting times and what a turnaround from December! And Feb looks to start off cold, too, most likely. There still remains no indication that suggests a mild February.
 
GaWx said:
All systems remain a go for a good shot at the coldest period of the winter to date during the last week of January. All models continue to suggest a good shot at the coldest period at least since the extreme cold of early January of 2018! Exciting times and what a turnaround from December! And Feb looks to start off cold, too, most likely. There still remains no indication that suggests a mild February.
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Very good news. Hopefully this means the last week of Janaury if the Models are correct,we might actually be tracking ether a true miller A low or a Southern Slider,instead of the miller A/B hyprid crap.
 
Faco Thomas said:
Very good news. Hopefully this means the last week of Janaury if the Models are correct,we might actually be tracking ether a true miller A low or a Southern Slider,instead of the miller A/B hyprid crap.
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Forecasting winter storms are of course a crapshoot but having this kind of cold sure ups the chances: check out the cross polar flow/January of 2018 says “hi”: (these maps are from the 12Z GEFS)

23BBB023-C58C-49DB-815A-46E5A871F46D.pngF757726A-BF80-46E6-B9D9-0C83E4409DE9.png5A21ECC6-3DE6-49F0-9FB1-576666C2AE03.png

Adding this map:
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Right where we want it

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
 
Need to watch the sneaky look around day 7 as well with another coming right at day 10 besides the one Met mentioned on day 8-9.
 
GaWx said:
Weenietime again, folks. The 18Z CFS is the coldest run I’ve ever seen with an amazing 5+ BN for the rest of January and February for Atlanta! If this is true, this upcoming threat may be one of several. So, don’t sweat it.

The coldest 5 day period I’ve ever seen on a CFS run in the SE is this one, which has absolutely idiotic cold:

View attachment 104285

Look at the insane cross polar H5 for then:

View attachment 104286

Look at the plentiful qpf, which would be mainly wintry in the northern areas and probably include at least close calls to wintry pretty far south if this were to verify (I’m talking to you, @pcbjr , as well as to me):

View attachment 104287
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And it’s wet! That’s amazeballs
 
Here comes the extreme cold per 12Z EPS! Good chance for another cold high to follow this one per models by the way but that’s just speculation. Will the cold later interact in the SE with the subtropical jet??

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For the best shot at a major SE winter storm, the best bet is if the Arctic high moves across the Ohio Valley so it doesn’t squash moisture too far south.
 
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GaWx said:
Here comes the extreme cold per 12Z EPS! Good chance for another cold high to follow this one per models by the way but that’s just speculation. Will the cold later interact in the SE with the subtropical jet??

View attachment 104526
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For the best shot at a major SE winter storm, the best bet is if the Arctic high moves across the Ohio Valley so it doesn’t squash moisture too far south.
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a little squash would actually be welcomed by a marginal few ... ;)
 
Later in 12Z EPS, it is even colder than the 0Z! Keep in mind that whereas best bet for the most extreme SE cold is for the high to plunge into TX, the best bet for a SE winter storm is actually for the Arctic high to turn east and move near Ohio Valley instead of plunging far south. So root for whichever you prefer although any SE winter storm, itself, could itself lead to extreme cold:

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The last maps of the 12Z EPS show a very cold SE from one high along with a still cross polar flow as well as still another Arctic plunge shown by many members: this second high could end up being the one that teams up with moisture for a SE winter storm/who knows?? DD28F791-301A-4410-A2FE-7D6796C5B705.png
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I’m exhausted! Break for now.
 
Fantasy for especially @pcbjr from 12Z CFS but this is only 12 days out and the intense cold is just about unanimous on all of the models. So, anyway, here’s the perfect track for N FL snow with a low moving from the GOM to S FL while interacting with an extremely cold and large/sprawling high still centered way up over the N Plains (thus not squashing the moisture below the deepest SE):

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This is a very rare mainly light accumulating snow for the gulf coast to south GA/SE SC and all the way down to Ocala, FL!! I mean a once a few decade rarity!

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At 500 mb, there’s a moist WSW flow:

D979ACE4-7CD8-4F57-8433-0C01820D8ABE.png

The 850’s are just below 0C to Ocala meaning this is pure snow:

8C1073FD-E12F-4B3E-B45D-C3B27EA32853.png

Back to reality but this is far from an impossible dream.

Edit: @Ollie Williams, I hope you add these maps to your thread!
 
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GaWx said:
Fantasy for especially @pcbjr from 12Z CFS but this is only 12 days out and the intense cold is just about unanimous on all of the models. So, anyway, here’s the perfect track for N FL snow with a low moving from the GOM to S FL while interacting with an extremely cold and large/sprawling high still centered way up over the N Plains (thus not squashing the moisture below the deepest SE):

View attachment 104557
View attachment 104558

This is a very rare mainly light accumulating snow for the gulf coast to south GA/SE SC and all the way down to Ocala, FL!! I mean a once a few decade rarity!

View attachment 104563

At 500 mb, there’s a moist WSW flow:

View attachment 104564

The 850’s are just below 0C to Ocala meaning this is pure snow:

View attachment 104568

Back to reality but this is far from an impossible dream.
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Holy cow and Thanks, Larry!
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Is your tempest right on the ground? I have mine about 9 foot up so was curious
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Nah right around 6 ft. I have a Davis vantage vue and it was 20 this morning but it's around 10ft. I thought I had bad readings until I realized I was close to TTA that eased my concern about it
 
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