Pattern Januworry

[KyloG]

Don’t care if it snows…just want night time lows in the 40’s instead of the upper 60’s. EPS says just maybe…?

 

[Chazwin]

In combo with the rising PNA, it is hard as a cold lover to not like these:

View attachment 100771View attachment 100772

Noticing a few members now want to take it through low amp phase 1 and 2. The good thing I see is that it’s staying on the left side which is obviously what we want. I know a lot of people were playing down the importance of the MJO last week with how bleak the models were looking and there are certainly other pieces of the puzzle, but I’m a firm believer now that it’s the single most important index in a LaNina… what happened with the pattern last February made be a believer of that. Obviously the models are seeing us going into phase 8 and are responding to more troughs in the east

 

[bigstick10]

High temperatures with this arctic shot .. models trying to sniff out some CAD junk a little after this high pressure moves a bit away . CAD would have more credence with a cold and dry airmass like this View attachment 100811

BS on that map..

 

[SD]

This storm is wild

 

[bigstick10]

BS on that map..

20s for highs in the Outer Banks, sorry not gonna happen.

 

[Chazwin]

BS on that map..

What’s your reasoning on that? I’m not saying that those highs will definitely verify, but there’s certainly a lot of ensemble support right now that well below average high temperatures is in the cards for that week.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

This storm is wild

Makes me wonder how much of a punch tomorrows little line will have

 

[SD]

What’s your reasoning on that? I’m not saying that those highs will definitely verify, but there’s certainly a lot of ensemble support right now that well below average high temperatures is in the cards for that week.

1046 sitting over the central US at d10 on the euro with below 0 dews on the doorstep of the region. We get the pattern the gfs/euro are advertising we are going to see the coldest temps in years (since 2018) for NC/SC/GA

 

[SD]

Makes me wonder how much of a punch tomorrows little line will have

I'll go with underwhelming

 

[Myfrotho704_]

1046 sitting over the central US at d10 on the euro with below 0 dews on the doorstep of the region. We get the pattern the gfs/euro are advertising we are going to see the coldest temps in years (since 2018) for NC/SC/GA

Lol then there’s this at hour 150, high around/below freezing

 

[Chazwin]

1046 sitting over the central US at d10 on the euro with below 0 dews on the doorstep of the region. We get the pattern the gfs/euro are advertising we are going to see the coldest temps in years (since 2018) for NC/SC/GA

I agree completely, and as I said it’s not just operationals doing goofy things, as there is lot of support in the ensembles for it. One thing I would watch for that time is something trying to develop along the front if it stalls near the Gulf Coast… perhaps a weak wave, but with that type of airmass in place you can see nice widespread 2-4 inch type event

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol then there’s this at hour 150, high around/below freezing View attachment 100815

Same with the gefs with highs barely getting above freezing, it also has lows in the upper teens across N NC. No bs here

 

[SD]

That 18z gfs run was probably the most exciting but infuriating thing I've seen. Great hemispheric pattern right through 384 but warms up to rain with almost every system.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I didn’t realize the gefs was this good for this system, if the euro could hop on to the cho cho weenie train, then this might need a thread in a day or 2, another interesting look for the same areas we’re watching with Monday mornings system

 

[Tarheel1]

1046 sitting over the central US at d10 on the euro with below 0 dews on the doorstep of the region. We get the pattern the gfs/euro are advertising we are going to see the coldest temps in years (since 2018) for NC/SC/GA

AFD this afternoon said the next cold shot here mid/late week, will be colder than the next day or two here. We touch 30 on Tuesday and then go basically 20 highs and -5 to 10 lows for the next 10-15 days! That can only benefit y’all down the line!

 

[GaWx]

I agree completely, and as I said it’s not just operationals doing goofy things, as there is lot of support in the ensembles for it. One thing I would watch for that time is something trying to develop along the front if it stalls near the Gulf Coast… perhaps a weak wave, but with that type of airmass in place you can see nice widespread 2-4 inch type event

Indeed, look at all of the members with 1045+ mb highs in red: this is believable based on the MJO forecast:

 

[mrdaddyman]

That 18z gfs run was probably the most exciting but infuriating thing I've seen. Great hemispheric pattern right through 384 but warms up to rain with almost every system.

I haven't looked yet. Let me guess, no -NAO and an annoying WAR?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I didn’t realize the gefs was this good for this system, if the euro could hop on to the cho cho weenie train, then this might need a thread in a day or 2, another interesting look for the same areas we’re watching with Monday mornings system View attachment 100818View attachment 100819

Although this is a bit different evolution than our current one I do worry about more amplification and such going NW with this system if we’re starting here .. but we will see how far that cold air initially can push through I think the more it can push through the further south the snow could end up

 

[Tarheel1]

AFD this afternoon said the next cold shot here mid/late week, will be colder than the next day or two here. We touch 30 on Tuesday and then go basically 20 highs and -5 to 10 lows for the next 10-15 days! That can only benefit y’all down the line!