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Pattern Januworry

By the way, we're in MJO Phase 8 now (asterisk is at Jan 11), so, it's time to eat all you can at the buffet before the last desserts run out

H45sqzV.png
 
By the way, we're in MJO Phase 8 now (asterisk is at Jan 11), so, it's time to eat all you can at the buffet before the last desserts run out

H45sqzV.png
Somebody told me about a week ago, it’s stalling in 7, retrograding back to 6 and winter was over?
 
- KATL has had freezes 5 of the last 9 nights after having had only one in November.
- KSAV's coldest this fall/winter to date is still the 29 from back on November 24th. They had two freezes in Nov but none since with 34 the coldest in Dec and 33 coldest this month to date. However, they have a good shot tonight due to good radiation.
- Both are still a good bit AN for the month to date due to the very warm first few days.
 
Looking further ahead mainly for entertainment, the 12Z CFS is still another run with strong cold/coldest of the run in early Feb. Of the last dozen or so runs, all but a couple have had each run's coldest anytime from the last week of Jan to the first 10 days of Feb. There's still no indication that Feb is going to be mild and the chance for it being solidly BN like for similar La Nina' s in 1934, 1972, 1899, and 1895 can't at all be ruled out. I'd say that our current ENSO along with the very warm December and considering the various CFS runs and Euro weeklies all is enough to tell me to at least not bet on a mild Feb.
 
Nothing beats standing outside, sucking in fresh artic air through the ole windpipes and smelling the auroma of firewood burning.
I agree and remember that so much as a kid with a snowstorm on the way. The pattern ‘fundamentals’ remain good. Hopefully we’ll have more chances pop
 
Weenietime again, folks. The 18Z CFS is the coldest run I’ve ever seen with an amazing 5+ BN for the rest of January and February for Atlanta! If this is true, this upcoming threat may be one of several. So, don’t sweat it.

The coldest 5 day period I’ve ever seen on a CFS run in the SE is this one, which has absolutely idiotic cold:

0CBAE0DB-20FD-4165-B93B-61952B0B058A.png

Look at the insane cross polar H5 for then:

09492C2B-9607-4B17-BC87-B2BDCD3BC571.png

Look at the plentiful qpf, which would be mainly wintry in the northern areas and probably include at least close calls to wintry pretty far south if this were to verify (I’m talking to you, @pcbjr , as well as to me):

43887BDA-07B7-4C45-9D1C-BCF9844AD20F.png
 
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