waiting for SD to say "boom goes the dynamite" 1029 ejected by the block from Greenland?
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Going to get something here pattern over the lakes and NE should keep it from cutting big time but might ruin good cold delivery
Change the timing of the pieces on the euro and it can work. As modeled it's probably not going to
This is still legitimately close to something big with the vortex in SE can and S/S wave, Kinda reminds me of the look that appeared last March but backed off as we got closer, also somewhat similar look to feb 2004 at H5
Oh just phase it. Let's go
This is what I mean, shift that SE can vortex south more and it gets more interesting 
Squished sammich
I'd rather be squishing at d7-10 than already amplified. Ways to score here but ways to send it west of the apps
Yeah, all we really need is for those higher heights just east of Greenland to move south a tad and all of a sudden you have the same set up of the biggest snowstorm CLT metro has had in the last 100 years, but about 5 weeks earlier on the calendar
Idk, I’m really a fan of the trend here, we finally managed to get the TPV phased with some energy/lower heights in the Atlantic and have a nice -NAO block now, low heights in the 50/50 region, and a southern stream that seems favored to stay further south, this pattern looks good and looks prone to Miller Bs especially
Euro really extended the pac jet again the end of the run and had a monster Aleutian low 
Implications of this?
My guess is pacific ridge printer go brrr
Delayed retraction of the pacific jet so slowed down retrogression process
?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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EC control might do something crazy lol 
Not a bad thing long term. Will cause some sweaty armpits and thread bans in the short term
Pretty Miller B ish look on the EPS mean 
Well the EPS control went from looking like it was trying to totally flopping lol 
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Is this good? I think he’s all in!?
Jessy89
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So many moving parts in this pattern. Models having a bit of a hard time with it. But eventually I think we get something to track inside 7 days.
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Yeah the EPS/control extended the pacific jet a little more around day 8-10 after some retraction 
The result of this is slowed down retrogression and renewed troughing around the Aleutians/Alaska, and more western US ridge. it’s something im not mad at, but not necessarily wanting, I’m ready to go thru with the process as it is, not delay it
-NAO trends are much more fun to look at
On the eps control yeah, the EPS mean has way less -NAO
Eps is trying to poke the bear late and unload the freezer.
May be another drop and spread. Dislike button
May be another drop and spread. Dislike button
Wasn’t a great EPS run but wasn’t bad, solid 6/10
NWMSGuy
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Imagine there are some in North MS, AL that wouldn’t mind Member 46. ?
I’ve seen a lot worse for early mid January
Brent
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Sign me up ?
??
Yeah the OP euro def looked better
Looks opposite? West coast
Think we just stay the course here in the medium-extended range (Jan 15-30). GEFS is probably too amplified out west and EPS not amplified enough. GEFS is more of a -EPO pattern with episodic cold highs dropping down (colder, better chances farther south and/or Miller B, as has been stated), while EPS is more of a split flow / weak +PNA look (not as cold, but could have some good chances if timing is there). I still think a quick retraction of the jet back to the WPac (back to -PNA) is the least likely scenario. AAM charts are trending up, so, more evidence of westerly momentum getting charged into the Pac jet and keeping it from doing a quick retreat. GEFS is probably overdone on the -NAO, but still think we may have an opportunity there. AAM charts from @MattHugo81 on Twitter
Keeping it simple, on a scale of 1 to 5 with 3 being avg and 5 being excellent, I'd view the 2nd half of Jan as a 4 (better than average).
My hunch is that we see a -NAO take shape, but it sets up as more east-based. If I'm wrong and it becomes more favorably oriented, then we can move the dial on your scale from a 4 to a 5. It looks like there's lots of energy to work with.Think we just stay the course here in the medium-extended range (Jan 15-30). GEFS is probably too amplified out west and EPS not amplified enough. GEFS is more of a -EPO pattern with episodic cold highs dropping down (colder, better chances farther south and/or Miller B, as has been stated), while EPS is more of a split flow / weak +PNA look (not as cold, but could have some good chances if timing is there). I still think a quick retraction of the jet back to the WPac (back to -PNA) is the least likely scenario. AAM charts are trending up, so, more evidence of westerly momentum getting charged into the Pac jet and keeping it from doing a quick retreat. GEFS is probably overdone on the -NAO, but still think we may have an opportunity there. AAM charts from @MattHugo81 on Twitter
Keeping it simple, on a scale of 1 to 5 with 3 being avg and 5 being excellent, I'd view the 2nd half of Jan as a 4 (better than average).