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Pattern Januworry

KSAV up to 82 as of 2/3 PM vs the daily record of 79! The very end of the warmth still fighting!
 
superjames1992 said:
50” for CLT. What’s that, about 15 years’ worth of snowfall in two weeks? Seems legit. Most insane model output I’ve ever seen for our region!
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Agreed. I think I've only seen that once or twice for the mtns, and maybe once for a coastal bomb offshore? Honestly I'm not sure.

NEVER seen it anywhere near the piedmont though.
 
RAH long range discussion:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

Cold high pressure over the area Tuesday morning will retreat to the
northeast on Tuesday, but shallow mixing and the deposited cold
airmass will result in highs in the 40s. Southerly flow and
moderating temps will continue on Wednesday, with periods of cirrus
likely in fest cyclonic flow aloft as shortwaves move through a broad
upper trough encompassing the eastern 2/3 of the country. A more
amplified shortwave is forecast to reach the southern and central
Appalachians by Thursday, bringing the next chance of precip to the
region. The ECMWF and GFS are remarkably different in the amount of
moisture the system brings with it, with the ECWMF being much
wetter. The gFS provides a more atypical solution with precip
breaking out well into the cold air. These models also suggest some
changeover from rain to snow is possible, though uncertainty is high
given no cold air support preceding the system. For now will just
maintain a small area of rain/snow or snow across the climatological
favored northwest/northern Piedmont for Thursday night/Friday
morning.
 
BIG FROSTY said:


BAM- not buying the cold model runs. Cold had no staying power…,


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Good we don’t want BAM on our side! Remember? They said we were going to warm up and then we got this winter system we are dealing with right now … perfect
 
BIG FROSTY said:


BAM- not buying the cold model runs. Cold had no staying power…,


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Is it just me or do they seem to flip around with what they’re saying day to day. Anyway, if you look at the teleconnections today, looks to be some good things happening. NOAA still shows the MJO progressing slowly into phase 8 and ending close to phase 1… the big change today is that all the plots are squarely on the left side and some are want to give a high amp phase 8. The AO, while still going on a quick positive spike looks to then head back to neutral and then possibly slightly negative. The NAO looks to be positive early this week, but the head close to neutral after.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is better.View attachment 101276
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We’ll see.
8ba3a0551f4d60e2afb955b21a1d71e1.jpg



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Stephenb888 said:
This forum has been quiet. Is it because the pattern for January sucks now or because everyone is tracking tonight’s storm?
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Spurs up said:
both! lol
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Not gonna lie. I put a lot of time in watching this one. A lot of people had doubts. But it actually did ok for our area considering the temp from the day before. I might take a break for a day or 2. ?
Wait a min! Next!!!
 
On Sunday 1/2, KSAV had a record high of 83 that was 4 warmer than the old record of 79 and only one less than the high for all of January. That was the highest temperature since way back on 10/22/21. They also had a record high minimum of 68, which broke the old record of 66 and was the highest low since way back on 10/25/21.

The mean on Sunday of 75.5 was 24.5 warmer than normal and was the warmest mean since the 75.5 way back on 10/15/21! There last time there was a warmer mean than 75.5 was way back on 10/7/21!

A mean of 75.5 is normal for September 26th and May 22nd!
 
The cold front finally came through here! It had already been windy all day and even windier this evening with strong southerly winds along with some thunderstorms making it quite the noisy night. But the highest winds yet occurred with the front, itself, with highest gusts 45-50 mph! Power outages are still not widespread but they have doubled in my county within the last 45 minutes.

The best news is the very sharp drop at KSAV from an almost summerlike 70/66 at 4 AM to 60/50 at 4:30 AM with gusts to 45 continuing.
Finally, the cold is arriving! Hoping I don't lose power.

To put it in perspective though, even the 60 at 4:30 AM is still near the average HIGH for the date!

Congrats to those who got wintry precip 250+ miles NW of here!
 
Outages in this county accelerating with now over 7K. Was only ~1K an hour ago. That's what 45-50 mph gusts will do.

GA by far has the most ongoing outages in the US:

Top Areas by Outages
Georgia 183,056
California 36,684
South Carolina 35,857
Tennessee 23,416
North Carolina 22,859
Last Updated
1/3/2022, 04:39:15 AM

poweroutage.us

United States Power Outage Map

poweroutage.us poweroutage.us
 
Holy sheet, this just happened here at my house! The branch isn’t even large but it unluckily hit at just the wrong angle at a high enough speed! ? I’ve never experienced a broken window in my house from a branch. I had a tree come down in 2019 but it damaged mainly the roof and eaves without hitting any window. Fortunately the rain is over, but now I get to experience the cold front inside the house. ?‍?

43608DA0-E903-4C1C-9E7F-885B820388F6.jpeg
 
cyclogent said:
well, this one is trending in the right direction - and only 3 days out

View attachment 101464
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Yep let's see where the 12z runs go. Might have to fire up a thread today there were a decent amount of eps members with snow for TN and Northern parts of ms/al/nc. I'm worried we miss out as a region and the gfs is too far south
 
SD said:
Yep let's see where the 12z runs go. Might have to fire up a thread today there were a decent amount of eps members with snow for TN and Northern parts of ms/al/nc. I'm worried we miss out as a region and the gfs is too far south
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Icon and other models other than the Gfs have been further north and with the classic amplification trends towards verification time makes me think we would miss out too but hey you never know
 
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