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Pattern Januworry

The teleconnections this morning were very meh with only the -PNA being the only constant. The seasonal outlook models do some show us getting cold....in May
 
Breaking down the self sustaining trough ridge trough cycle from the okhotsk region to the pnw is the first big hurdle. The next will be enhancing/accelerating the pacific jet from east Asia to HI to force another ridge and then undercut it. Once we get over that there are multiple paths to follow from cold and snowy to the same old stuff.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I hope you guys score in the next 3-3.5 weeks or so, pattern is about as favorable overall as it’s gonna be this winter imo.
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Thank you I’m tired of all the dislikes I was getting for trying to breakdown this winter on the “when”. Some were screaming since November 1st and some have forecasted winter storms already for us. I’m sticking to my forecast and breaking down winter into segments even if it is “delayed” I think people want to know. I haven’t ruled out that back sided winter just yet either.
 
I would say due to the “heat wave” this week any chances of ice would be a self limiting process with roads being fine well into February. For snow, we can still get the grass covered but snow covered roads are gonna be a difficult task until at least Feb10 or after.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah I agree. Honestly, everyone has a right to make a prediction. And persistence is hard to beat. And people said the same thing about punting December near the end of November. December turned out to be a train wreck. But, I do think January will end up being a different story.
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I think we've seen the general pattern of the winter. To me the pattern is still more or less the same as it was last week, and the week before, and before, etc. -PNA and an Aleutian Ridge, and it's modeled that way as far as the eye can see. The only thing that's changed is the -PNA is not as wound up so the cold releases a bit into the Rockies/Mid-west. More or less December I believe has told the tale. I honestly don't think we get a whole scale pattern flip because as you mention, persistence is really hard to beat; especially with the MJO just dilly dallying where it's at. Maybe we flip and I hope we do, but I've come not to expect one.

Starting to think cool/seasonal is the best we get this year and that our best bet will try to get a weak nino next year (true nino, not one that acts like a nina).

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I say that with experience even Boone NC the roads would melt most snow storms under 6” fairly easy atm. We need major cold near 0 that would certainly help snow road conditions. Hoping for major cold air last day or January into February.
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Smdh....we don't need zero to have snow on roads. I've always had snow stick on the roads especially in the night and in shady areas during the day. Got two inches in an hour last year around 4 in the evening with Temps in the 50s all day until the snow moved in.
 
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